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SPX thoughts

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#301 tsharp



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Posted 12 August 2017 - 06:30 PM

I am so thankful that all my charting has been restored... I hope to find time this weekend to post additional charts, but we can start with this one... by my fractal count, it seems possible that wave-i:iii is complete. If this is accurate, then wave-ii:iii would be under way, and it also seems plausible for a bottom range of ~2350 - ~2250... either of the two UTLs below (blue or orange) are logical targets, and a back-test of the orange UTL would be a fine place to find support, before resuming the larger bull market trend upward... as always... time will tell.


Link to SPX weekly EW chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ur6gpv4wp/



#302 tsharp



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Posted 12 August 2017 - 06:48 PM

This was one of the scenarios I thought possible over a year ago... and while the timing is going a bit slower than I imagined, let's see how the fractal points play out... if so, there's a LONG way to go upward still ahead!


SPX weekly projection from 4.19.16: https://postimg.org/image/xzay2wr6h/



#303 tsharp



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Posted 13 August 2017 - 08:23 AM

I do have much to do today, so here is a very brief update on just the SPX hourly, daily and weekly charts with my momentum set-ups.  The only context I want to show from the hourly is the two previous fib points of support/resistance below, either of which could become the target for this wave-ii correction, though I favor the lower range of ~2250ish.



Link to SPX hourly chart: https://postimg.org/image/t7abiyba1/





On the SPX daily fast momentum chart, the price and momentum indicator lines have come down to the Andrew's middle trine and broken a confluence of support lines, respectively; follow-through would suggest at least a ST top is in.  The SPX daily slow momentum line has broken a latent UTL and is dropping into its next UTL; again, a break here would suggest at least a ST top has been acheived.  Please also note the negative divergence on both charts of price versus momentum.


Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/hw7nul4ex/




Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ketcv9q55/





On the SPX weekly fast momentum chart, note that the momentum indicator line has broken the TL, if this is a ST top, then I suspect the next UTL lower (dashed line) would be the wave-ii low target... note how long the negative divergence has been in play.  On the SPX weekly slow momentum chart, it too has broken a higher UTL, and if as in the slow momentum chart, I suspect the higher dashed UTL is the next target... twt.


Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/3sbsm6x7d/




Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/jrug5qt95/




Bonus... Link to SPX monthly fast momentum chart (note it would take a close below ~2285 for the month to suggest a larger CIT is under way): https://postimg.org/image/ufy74l389/



Edited by tsharp, 13 August 2017 - 08:26 AM.

#304 tsharp



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Posted 17 August 2017 - 02:29 PM

If my count is correct, wave-a:ii is still underway, with perhaps a running wave-b:a in play now... the SPX, basis the SP00s may find some support here, and there are also a few TLs lower, so watching to see what transpires over the coming days and weeks.


Link to SP00 daily chart:  https://postimg.org/image/tyn9d72xl/



#305 tsharp



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Posted 17 August 2017 - 06:41 PM

Oh, those trend lines... As you can see from the SPX hourly chart below, the indicator line was able to travel upward to only as far as the DTL, then promptly reversed back into the ST trend, which is down for now... and with the indicator in the -100 range, this is clearly a down trend until it isn't.  The indicator line found support at the lowest UTL and a confluence of a latent DTL... this may mean some support tomorrow, though I think we will see additional selling next week.


Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/weto4sae1/




The daily SPX saw the indicator line rise back upward to the next higher latent UTL, then reversed back downward to the UTL it tested last week... as with the hourly chart, there may be some temporary support here, but this is the third touch on this TL, so I suggest it will not hold and will likely drop downward to at least the zero line, where another latent DTL is found, before a decent support is found... twt.


Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/nxu5tv5p5/



#306 tsharp



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Posted 18 August 2017 - 08:52 AM

Okay then, SP00s may have found some support at this confluence of UTLs... if not, then much lower prices ahead.


Link to SP00s daily chart:  https://postimg.org/image/kz11bz0d5/



#307 tsharp



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Posted 18 August 2017 - 12:12 PM

The battle of the TLs is on...


Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/6iidb509l/



#308 tsharp



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Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:12 AM

With my charting all restored, I would like to share some other charts to start the weekend, and perhaps they can help give a clue as to what the major US markets may be up to...


The weekly BKX (banking) appears to have put in a double top formation for now, this is not to suggest the ultimate high is in, though it has surpassed the RH&S target I suggested nearly a year ago (9/27/16), so some kind of pullback would be in order... the +100 line, or fuchsia UTL would be a likely target. 


Link to BKX weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/4o5zcru6x/




The DTX (trannies) appears to have completed a five-wave pattern upward, and fulfilled the RH&S pattern I noted back in November 2016, so a pullback of some sort is also in order, not to mention that the Dow Transports have been divergent (non-confirming) against the new Dow Industrials highs for about two months now.  The bold UTL or zero line may be the corrective target.


Link to DTL weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/cw7wxrm3d/




The IWM (Russell) has broken UTLs on both the price and indicator charts (I accidentally posted this chart as the weekly SPX last week, and apologize), so the broader market - small- and mid-caps also appears to be in at least a ST correction for now.  The +100 or dashed UTL seem to be a likely target for now.


Link to IWM weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/3ppmahgux/




Finally, for now, the COMP (Nasdaq) weekly chart ran head-on into its top DTL and was rejected, suggesting at least a ST top is in, as it gathers enough strength to push upward through.  I do not believe the ultimate top is in for any of the major US markets, but a pause to breath is probably in order for at least a few weeks... twt.


Link to COMP weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/vr3no6m55/



Edited by tsharp, 19 August 2017 - 09:14 AM.

#309 tsharp



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Posted 20 August 2017 - 10:16 AM

With the IWM being the ETF for the RUT (Russell 2000) I thought it may be wise to also post the RUT chart itself, as it does have a slightly different look, suggesting perhaps some support, before moving lower again.


Link to RUT weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/f1x96eg25/




Now on to the SPX hourly... the indicator line did find slight support at the UTL / -100 lines, as I suggested when I last posted it, but also was rejected by the same and resumed downward.  There is a lesser UTL under the price bars at the ~2413 price level, if that fails to hold, then the next lower price target would be the ~2350 range.


Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/w69yvbykt/




The SPX daily fast momentum chart is significant, as it clearly shows the price support at the middle tine of the Andrew's Fork failed and the major UTL support of the indicator line also failed.  There is a different series of fib levels on this chart, based on fib extensions of wave-i high of ~2111, so price support is possible down at the ~2116 level, and there may be some support also found at the zero line on the indicator chart.


Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/526y48u6l/




Next, the SPX weekly fast momentum chart also shows clear broken TL support on the indicator line, so as I last suggested, it seems the next target would be the dashed UTL below... twt.


Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/fqap3345p/




Finally, I accidentally posted an incorrect chart last week, and apologize.  This is the SPX weekly slow momentum chart that should have been posted... it shows the indicator line resting at a confluence of UTLs, which may provide for a slight bounce, though ultimately, if the ST trend remains down, it will drop through and likely attempt to find support at the next lower minor UTL... and again... twt.


Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/m59pzravh/



Edited by tsharp, 20 August 2017 - 10:20 AM.

#310 dowdeva



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Posted 20 August 2017 - 08:00 PM



I have thought of you many times in the last month. Glad you're back and very appreciative of your updates.


Hope you and your brood had a great summer.