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The Long Term View


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#21 Rich C

Rich C

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Posted 20 December 2017 - 10:01 AM

The second estimate of Q3 GDP came in at 3.3% and GDPNow estimate for Q4 is 3.3, which would give us a +2.7% year.  The Fed hiked rates by a quarter of a point last week leaving the Fed Funds rate at 1.4%.  The Fed indicated it plans 3 more rate hikes in 2018, probably 1/4 point each (my guess).  With the market surging up in advance of earnings, the P/E on the S&P 500 moved up to 25 from 24.2, leaving it in moderately overvalued territory.  However, the corporate tax cut should raise earnings next year by 10%, which should moderate the valuation.

 

On a long term basis, the bull market continues.  


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.