5 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

below is my EW interpretation of the weekly gold continuous futures chart. if my take is correct, then it appears that an irregular or running wave-(ii) is in progress, which seems likely to take us up to the ~$500 range... twt.

--tsharp

[SilentOne]

Hi T! Nice charts. The impulse (5 waves) you count on gold looks good, but one alternate is for an extended 5th wave which would be in progress if correct. I am starting to doubt that this is possible though given the weak relative performance of respective mining shares on the latest gold rise. David Petch has the HUI and XAU in running corrections so maybe this occurs in both the metals and the shares. Of course the Precherites have gold as corrective (abc) or at least they did the last time I checked. That must mean that the US Dollar is really undervalued then! Also note that there are 5 wave impulses (up) on commodity currencies like the $CDN and the $AUS. On ewaves, most folks can't make heads or tails on what it all means. For me, the most important thing is to understand where you might be in the big picture, then try to work your way down to the smaller degrees. There is no doubt in my mind on the long term bull which has started for PMs. It is what happens between now and the start of wave III (up) that will be difficult to judge. cheers, john

[swanstkdh]

The wild part is that some of the share prices of individual pm miners did not change much after yesterdays bloodbath. I will watch.

[Larry Katz]

Tim


Nice chart interesting count. You have quite a few C wave failures along the way from the 2001 low. I am counting the May rally as primary wave 5 from the August 1999 low. I think it is over but not yet confirmed. If I am right we are facing looking at the beginning of the biggest decline since 1999. That is the bad news. The good news is that the August 1999 rally is only wave 1 or A of a much bigger rally the beginning of a secular bull market.

I do not know how to post a chart here so here is a link to the World Gold Index Monthly chart.

http://www.marketsum...orts/chart0.jpg


I am also loooking at the HUI as completing a large "b" wave in mid November from either December or January. I had a good five up on this one at either of those highs from its late 2000 low. The biggest negative I see to support my count is the huge divergence betweeen gold and the HUI. This divergence was confirmed last week. All divergences between gold and the HUI from late 2000 have resolved in the direction of the stocks.

Here is a link to a chart showing these diverences. The Red trend lines are non confirmations by the stocks and the black positive signals from the stocks

http://www.marketsum...orts/chart1.jpg




LK

[tsharp]

Hi Larry, Sorry for the delay in response... too many irons in the fire at the moment. You may well be correct wrt your take on the EW/fractal analysis on gold and hui... "we look through a glass darkly," and how much the more when it comes to attempting to perform EW/fractal analysis within the commodities arena? i must confess that i wasn't even on the LT bullish gold train until several months ago, as i was still looking through the prism of pretcher, et al... so perhaps i'll be able to get up to speed as we move forward. besides, it seems to me that EW/fractal analysis, in and of itself, isn't a very good tool with which to trade, as its use seems to be so much more of an art than a science. eg. prechter, neely, miner, etc. all seem to have different approaches to reach varying conclusions wrt the very same chart. i've mentioned previously that i'm working on numerous models on various markets of interest, when i have more to share for the gold market, i'll be sure to share. --tsharp

[SilentOne]

Hi T!

Here's an uncommon EW on the HUI. Petch has been speculating that a running wave II correction is underway. The reasoning is that this is an ultra bullish market (HUI) having risen >7.32 times from the 2001 lows.

http://www.capitalst...st&id=37657.gif

I borrowed this chart from Mr. Hanky at Capital Stool. It portrays Petch's idea. There is an alternate there (ie. big wave II C down) to be mindful of. The main point is though that no major momo in store here until we come to the beginning of Wave III.

cheers,

john