5 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

fwiw, i recently mentioned the possibility of a diamond formation in the spx chart...

imho, it has the most bullish potential of the possible fractals i've considered of late, as an expanding fourth wave is most often a terminal pattern, and i think that we still may have one more run to higher-highs still remaining in this cyclical bool.

anyway, nothing is written in stone, but if a diamond formation is setting up, this might be what its boundaries could look like. and don't be fooled by the bearz who'll tell you that all diamond formations retrace back to the origin of the mast... not ALL do so, some do break out to the upside, and when they do, it's been my experience that their upward target is often equal to the length of the mast on the left side of the pattern measured to the center of the formation, upward from the center of the right side of the formation... a bit like a bullish flag or pennant, as this would be considered a coiling formation.

but let's take it one day at a time, because as always... twt.


--tsharp

[tsharp]

fwiw, i recently mentioned the possibility of a diamond formation in the spx chart...

imho, it has the most bullish potential of the possible fractals i've considered of late, as an expanding fourth wave is most often a terminal pattern, and i think that we still may have one more run to higher-highs still remaining in this cyclical bool.

anyway, nothing is written in stone, but if a diamond formation is setting up, this might be what its boundaries could look like.  and don't be fooled by the bearz who'll tell you that all diamond formations retrace back to the origin of the mast... not ALL do so, some do break out to the upside, and when they do, it's been my experience that their upward target is often equal to the length of the mast on the left side of the pattern measured to the center of the formation, upward from the center of the right side of the formation... a bit like a bullish flag or pennant, as this would be considered a coiling formation.

but let's take it one day at a time, because as always... twt.


--tsharp

[edited out chart]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

fwiw, how the market deals with the pbma (green line on the price chart) will likely determing the ST trend over the next few days...

if it falls through, then the ST trend will likely be downward again for a while, if it manages to bounce nicely from there, then the ST trend (as defined by my swing stuph) could turn back upward again... we shall see.

note also the relatively large gap between the fast line and the main signal line in the right chart... with no positive divergence building as of yet, it appears to be suggesting that we'll not see a strong upward move just yet... but again... twt.

--tsharp

[tsharp]

fwiw, i recently mentioned the possibility of a diamond formation in the spx chart...

imho, it has the most bullish potential of the possible fractals i've considered of late, as an expanding fourth wave is most often a terminal pattern, and i think that we still may have one more run to higher-highs still remaining in this cyclical bool.

anyway, nothing is written in stone, but if a diamond formation is setting up, this might be what its boundaries could look like.  and don't be fooled by the bearz who'll tell you that all diamond formations retrace back to the origin of the mast... not ALL do so, some do break out to the upside, and when they do, it's been my experience that their upward target is often equal to the length of the mast on the left side of the pattern measured to the center of the formation, upward from the center of the right side of the formation... a bit like a bullish flag or pennant, as this would be considered a coiling formation.

but let's take it one day at a time, because as always... twt.


--tsharp

[edited out chart]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

fwiw, how the market deals with the pbma (green line on the price chart) will likely determing the ST trend over the next few days...

if it falls through, then the ST trend will likely be downward again for a while, if it manages to bounce nicely from there, then the ST trend (as defined by my swing stuph) could turn back upward again... we shall see.

note also the relatively large gap between the fast line and the main signal line in the right chart... with no positive divergence building as of yet, it appears to be suggesting that we'll not see a strong upward move just yet... but again... twt.

--tsharp


[edited out chart]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

welp... imho, the relative weakness of this wave-ii or wave-b, only retracing to a prior wave-iv of one lesser degree seemed to be suggesting that Dell would disappoint.

so if i'm correct in this tentative fractal count, tomorrow should continue downward in a wave-iii or wave-c... the two lines in the sand would be the highs and lows of today, as an alt count could allow for today's rise to be a wave-i upward... as always, twt.

--tsharp

[BovineMarket]

I have the S&P rallying until May-July, pending upon how the wave structure unfolds. It should be ugly after that into late 2006 prior to a bottom around 900-1000. Neely has the S&P staying in wave(IV), so anyone who is going to be fully invested in the S&P............prepare for significant losses. Better to stick the money in gold, silver, oil, and Uranium stocks.

[BovineMarket]

There is no diametric triangle setup of the diamond type forming in the S&P to the best of my knowledge. Waves do not show enough similarity in time.

[tsharp]

There is no diametric triangle setup of the diamond type forming in the S&P to the best of my knowledge. Waves do not show enough similarity in time.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

hi bovine,

welcome to traders-talk, and the swing waves board.

as you'll see from my work, i'm neither a prechter-ite (though i was in my early days, and lost a bundle in my early attempts at trading as i tried to follow his permabear wave counts), nor am i a neeley-ite (aint smart enough). d-u-h

i pretty much try to abide by classical EW counts/interpretation, but do allow for some newer corrective patterns that Frost or Prechter probably would not accept.

my view with fractal analysis is that if it works for you, then it's right... i also suggest that EW is less a science than an art, and as such, if you find a way to count fractal patterns in such a way that you can communicate it to others, and it works for you, then use it. i don't trade this stuph... just attempt to forecast with it.

wrt the diamond formation, we differ there also... i've seen all kinds of 'non-accepted' diamond formations do their job. in my view, in most cases, it's simply a combination of a wave-iv, wave-v, wave-i, wave-ii (an expanding triangle formation plus a contracting triangle formation) , and depending where the next higher fractal position is sitting, that would dictate whether the breakout would be upward or downward... and in this case, i think the breakout will end up being to the upside... but as i often say... twt.


regards,
--tsharp