2 views on gold bullion
#1
Posted 18 July 2005 - 12:44 AM
#2
Posted 18 July 2005 - 05:55 AM
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#4
Posted 18 July 2005 - 10:51 AM
EagleTrader, I rate a bearish outcome as a higher probability. Another possibility not shown is the five-wave decline into the February low, and that we've been making a triangle since, which would have us near the end of the 4th leg, with a final upward move to come, followed by a decline similar to the one in Dec. - Feb.
Such a triangle would be the next-to-last formation in the larger structure (basic Elliott Wave stuff), meaning that the overall down to Feb., sideways to complete the triangle, and then down again would likely end the correction from the Dec. high.
Best,
Doug
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#5
Posted 18 July 2005 - 10:56 AM
#6
Posted 19 July 2005 - 04:57 PM
#7
Posted 19 July 2005 - 06:18 PM
SilentOne: My expectation, as I have posted for a while now is the bearish view to endure for the next few months and possibly into next year. If gold dips sub $400, I will probably move to double our physical holdings, much to my wife's consternation. If we actually see a gold triangle form, then the miners would have to respond very shortly (already beginning to anticipate the coming move in gold). No way to know for certain. All we can do now is read the charts and corresponding price action.
Hi John, --In the long run I do not see how gold will not go up a lot in terms of the US Dollar. But to correct the three-year move up into last December's peak for a year or more would not be surprising -- there's lots of people thinking about the Dollar, the debt, etc., who are saying "gold's gotta go up..." I love talking about this stuff but you're right -- the charts and price action is everything.
Even if we are in a triangle, it could complete and then there could be a brief thrust up around the December peak or higher, to end the move up from 2001. Then we could have a substantial bear market. That would sure snooker a bunch of people. For now I think the bearish case is higher probability (and of course what I think may be worthless).
There was a guy named Ken "Midas" Romanov who used to post here, and back in 2001 I bought some gold stock, even when the chart looked crappy, quite a bit on his analysis. He'd been somewhat of a permabull on gold but he was making good points 4 years ago. Sold it last October, and now I think it's time to be watching the charts pretty closely again.
Best,
Doug
#8
Posted 20 July 2005 - 03:08 PM
#9
Posted 20 July 2005 - 03:50 PM
E could indeed end above C. The decline of the last month looks best as five waves to me, so I also see a possible 5-3-5 correction from December, with the "3" being a comparitively long-in-terms-of-time abc, as in the bearish count chart. This could be all the larger "C" wave we get, going down from the June high. This would give us a "triangle" for all practicality, and the upward trend should resume.
I doubt that, but you never know, and here I just have to wait. Good example of how Elliott Wave often isn't much as a stand-alone indicator. Overall, the longer we go sideways the more bullish the longer-term picture looks to me, as the correction is gaining on the rally from 2001 in percentage of time.
Doug
#10
Posted 20 July 2005 - 07:23 PM