43 replies to this topic

[PorkLoin]

[mss]

Doug, I cannot get the thumbnails to inlarge. Something is wrong with the link.

[EagleTrader]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I should have stuck this here...

Gold

[PorkLoin]

MSS, I am so sorry -- I made an absolute hash of trying to get the images to display, late at night with my wife raging at me to get off the computer. And guess who was a Computer Science major in college 20+ years ago.

EagleTrader, I rate a bearish outcome as a higher probability. Another possibility not shown is the five-wave decline into the February low, and that we've been making a triangle since, which would have us near the end of the 4th leg, with a final upward move to come, followed by a decline similar to the one in Dec. - Feb.

Such a triangle would be the next-to-last formation in the larger structure (basic Elliott Wave stuff), meaning that the overall down to Feb., sideways to complete the triangle, and then down again would likely end the correction from the Dec. high.

Best,

Doug

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[TomD]

I think these charts capture the moment quite nicely.....Last week I sold my traders but am watching closely to see if trend-line supports holds....I guess a strong bounce off a line could be bought...or maybe wait for a break out am currently holding some gold, some energies and quite a bit of cash

[SilentOne]

Doug, Great charts and a good summary for the metal. My expectation, as I have posted for a while now is the bearish view to endure for the next few months and possibly into next year. If gold dips sub $400, I will probably move to double our physical holdings, much to my wife's consternation. If we actually see a gold triangle form, then the miners would have to respond very shortly (already beginning to anticipate the coming move in gold). No way to know for certain. All we can do now is read the charts and corresponding price action. cheers, john

[PorkLoin]

SilentOne:  My expectation, as I have posted for a while now is the bearish view to endure for the next few months and possibly into next year. If gold dips sub $400, I will probably move to double our physical holdings, much to my wife's consternation. If we actually see a gold triangle form, then the miners would have to respond very shortly (already beginning to anticipate the coming move in gold).  No way to know for certain. All we can do now is read the charts and corresponding price action.

Hi John, --In the long run I do not see how gold will not go up a lot in terms of the US Dollar. But to correct the three-year move up into last December's peak for a year or more would not be surprising -- there's lots of people thinking about the Dollar, the debt, etc., who are saying "gold's gotta go up..." I love talking about this stuff but you're right -- the charts and price action is everything.

Even if we are in a triangle, it could complete and then there could be a brief thrust up around the December peak or higher, to end the move up from 2001. Then we could have a substantial bear market. That would sure snooker a bunch of people. For now I think the bearish case is higher probability (and of course what I think may be worthless).

There was a guy named Ken "Midas" Romanov who used to post here, and back in 2001 I bought some gold stock, even when the chart looked crappy, quite a bit on his analysis. He'd been somewhat of a permabull on gold but he was making good points 4 years ago. Sold it last October, and now I think it's time to be watching the charts pretty closely again.

Best,

Doug

[Slothrop]

On the bullish e-wave count, E would be some kind of pivot above the C. We might have done it this week.

[PorkLoin]

Hey Slothrop,

E could indeed end above C. The decline of the last month looks best as five waves to me, so I also see a possible 5-3-5 correction from December, with the "3" being a comparitively long-in-terms-of-time abc, as in the bearish count chart. This could be all the larger "C" wave we get, going down from the June high. This would give us a "triangle" for all practicality, and the upward trend should resume.

I doubt that, but you never know, and here I just have to wait. Good example of how Elliott Wave often isn't much as a stand-alone indicator. Overall, the longer we go sideways the more bullish the longer-term picture looks to me, as the correction is gaining on the rally from 2001 in percentage of time.

Doug

[dougie]

i did not think motive waves appeared in triangles?