The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter Monday 12/12/2005
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Monday, December 12, 2005
Pre-Market
New Changes
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FRG - Changed Target From 6.50 To Market
FRG - Note: Take profits.
KBH - Changed Stop From 72.50 To 69.75
KBH - Note: Taking profits as Thursday's lows held on Friday.
KBH - Changed Target From 62.00 To Market
KBH - Note: Taking profits as Thursday's lows held on Friday.
New Cancels
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VRSN - Cancelled
VRSN - Note: Missed long entry.
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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
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Leibovit Files
Monday, December 12, 2005
Opening Comments
Economic Data/Events December 12-16:
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MONDAY, December 12:
Treasury auctions 3 & 6-month bills
Treasury Budget Statement (2 pm ET)
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TUESDAY, December 13:
Retail Sales for November (8:30 am ET)
Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET)
Business Inventories for October (10 am ET)
FOMC Meeting - policy announcement (2:15 pm ET)
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WEDNESDAY, December 14:
Import/Export Prices for November (8:30 am ET)
International Trade for October (8:30 am ET)
EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 am ET)
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THURSDAY, December 15:
Consumer Price Index for November (8:30 am ET)
NY Empire State Index for December (8:30 am ET)
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET)
Industrial Production & Capacity Util. for November (9:15 am ET)
Philadelphia Fed Survey for December (12 pm ET)
Weekly Money Supply (4:30 pm ET)
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FRIDAY, December 16:
Current Account Balance for Q3 (8:30 am ET)
Quadruple Witching - options and futures expiration
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The market has spent quite a bit of energy going through a sideways
consolidation pattern since Thanksgiving. In the Dow Industrials from
November 25 to date measuring from intra-day high to intra-day low, we've
declined 300 hundred points - though it feels we're right back where we
stood back then. Time is running out for our correct prediction calling
for a retracement post Thanksgiving to approximately December 13. That
folks, was the prediction made in the Annual Forecast Model
(http://www.volumerev...aster/index.asp) this past
January. Did you hear CNBC warn you to sell post Thanksgiving ahead of
time? In truth, they cannot with General Electric, their parent company,
and other major sponsors watching carefully over them. Upcoming this week
we have a quadruple option expiration on Friday and, of course, Tuesday
FOMC meeting where Alan Greenspan has yet another opportunity to jack up
interest rates. We can only guess what the FOMC comments will be on
Tuesday, but the 'Street' is certainly hoping for commentary that points
to the possibility that interest rate hikes are coming to an end.
Regardless, there is no question this market has held up quite well in
view of the barrage of bad interest rate and other news this past year
inclusive of natural disasters. We really have to tip out hats to the
Plunge Protection Team
(http://www.washingto...ackm/plunge.htm)
who have performed admirably this past year in helping assuring the major
stock indexes do not collapse.
The bottom line for us that we remain quite bullish on the equity markets
going forward into 2006 and expect to see the Dow Industrials approach
13,000 and the Nasdaq Composite reach to 2700. The zigs and zags to get
there will no doubt test our fortitude. Since our theoretical time line
for a post Thanksgiving correction is now coming to an end, we're inclined
to keep our finger on the buy trigger, regardless of whether the 'reason'
given short term is a Santa Claus rally or a compromising Federal Reserve.
Stay tuned.
Since Thanksgiving we were anticipating the S&P 500 to decline back to
around the 1240 area and, so far, we've only seen 1250.90 this past
Thursday. Was that close enough? We will know in the fullness of time!
As you know, we locked in profits in our GLD (ETF for gold bullion) Friday
with a view to re-enter on a pullback. Our next upside target for gold
bullion is $580, so stay tuned.
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WATCHLIST
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None.
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LONGS
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CBJ - Cambior Inc 2.10
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
As we have said repeatedly, we think gold is on its way to a minimum
target of $500/ounce. We think CBJ will benefit greatly from further
strength in gold.
Cambior, Inc. engages in the mining, exploration, and development of
mining properties, principally gold, located in North America and South
America. The company operates gold mining divisions, which include Omai,
located in Guyana; Doyon, which includes two underground mines located
approximately 40 kilometres east of Rouyn-Noranda, Canada; Sleeping Giant
located in Quebec, Canada; and Rosebel located in Suriname. The company
also owns 50% interest, through a joint venture, of the Niobec mine, a
niobium operation located in Quebec, Canada. The Omai mine is an open-pit
operation with a cyanidation and carbon-in-pulp processing plant. The
Doyon property covers an area of approximately 2,870 hectares. The
Sleeping Giant mine is a vein-type underground gold mine managed by
Cambior under a joint venture with Aurizon Mines, Ltd. (50%). The company
was incorporated in 1973 under the name Niobec, Inc. and changed its name
to Cambior, Inc. in 1986. Cambior is based in Longueuil, Canada.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 16, 2005 low of 1.51. While we
suspect that gold may pull back further here, we do not want to miss the
turn north in CBJ when gold does reverse up out of its current pullback.
Target 4.75.
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BVN - Compania De Minas Buena 29.16
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
BVN has formed a Positive Volume Reversal on October 21 after pulling back
to its 50 day moving average. We think it has good upside potential
especially with the longer term strength we see in gold and gold
shares.
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. operates as a mining company,
producing precious metals and holding mining rights in Peru. It engages in
the exploration, extraction, concentration, and commercialization of
polymetallic ores, individually and in association with third parties. The
company operates three mining units in Peru, including Julcani,
Uchucchacua, and Orcopampa; and has a controlling interest in four
Peruvian mining companies that own the Colquijirca, Antapite, Ishihuinca,
Shila, and Paula mines. In addition, it holds direct and indirect
interests in various other mining companies, comprising 43.65% of Minera
Yanacocha S.R.L. The company also owns an electric power distribution
company and a mining engineering services consulting company. Compañía de
Minas Buenaventura was established in 1953 and is based in Lima, Peru.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market. Looking for 34.
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KO - Coca Cola 42.46
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
No need to introduce KO. The Coca-Cola Company engages in manufacturing,
distributing, and marketing nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups
worldwide. The company also produces, markets, and distributes juices and
juice drinks, as well as water productsoduce KO. We've liked the stock
since it bottomed at 38.30 one year ago at 38.30 on October 29 and feel is
it is slowly but surely headed to 48.00. Patient investors hold. Traders
would buy on weakness but keeping a mental stop at 38.00.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
KO has often been out of sync with other Dow Industrial components and
needs to be judged independently. We like it here, after having seen it
pull back from 45 to 40.
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VHI - Valhi, Inc. 17.43
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
Valhi, Inc., through its majority owned subsidiaries and affiliates,
operates in the chemicals, component products, waste management, and
titanium metals industries. The company produces titanium dioxide pigments
for imparting whiteness, brightness, and opacity to a range of products,
including paints, plastics, paper, fibers, foods, ceramics, cosmetics, and
other products; and manufactures precision ball bearing slides, security
products, and ergonomic computer support systems for office furniture,
computer-related applications, and other industries. It owns and operates
a facility in west Texas for the processing, treatment, storage, and
disposal of hazardous, toxic, and certain types of low-level radioactive
wastes. The company also produces titanium sponge melted products (ingot
and slab) and mill products for commercial and military aerospace,
industrial, and other markets. Valhi operates in the United States,
Canada, Germany, Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands, and Taiwan. The company
is based in Dallas, Texas. Valhi, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Contran
Corporation
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
A play in Uranium and Titanium. VHI has been consolidating around 17 for
several months and should trade back toward 22 in coming months at which
time we will re-evalute upside potential. Optimal buy is the 13 area, but
we're not betting it will work that low.
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LB - LaBarge Inc. 17.43
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
LaBarge Inc. engages in the design, engineering, and production of
electronic systems and devices, and interconnect systems on a contract
basis in the United States. It manufactures printed circuit card
assemblies, cables and harnesses, box-build assemblies, and
electronic/electromechanical systems. The company markets its services to
customers desiring an engineering and manufacturing partner capable of
developing and providing electronic equipment, including products capable
of performing in harsh environmental conditions, such as high and low
temperature, as well as severe shock and vibration. Its products are used
in various technology applications, including military communication and
radar systems, military and commercial aircraft, satellites, space launch
vehicles, down-hole instrumentation in oil and gas wells, and mail sorting
equipment. LaBarge’s customers belong to the defense, aerospace, natural
resources, industrial, and other commercial markets. The company was
incorporated in 1968 and is based in St. Louis, Missouri.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
After a sharp correction from 22 to 12, LB is now working its way out of a
basing formation. First upside target is 17 and through 17 back to a test
of 22.
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ROYL - Royal Energy 8.02
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
Royale Energy, Inc. produces oil and natural gas in the United States. It
principally engages in the production and sale of natural gas; acquisition
of oil and gas lease interests and proved reserves; and drilling of
exploratory and development wells. The company’s wells are located
primarily in California, Texas, and Utah. As of December 31, 2003, Royale
Energy drilled 17 wells of which 14 are commercially productive wells. As
of December 31, 2003, it had total proved reserves of 11,849 million cubic
feet of natural gas on all of the properties Royale Energy leases, and had
total proved oil reserves of 158 millions barrels. The company was
incorporated in California in 1986 and is based in San Diego, California.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
ROYL has been recently trading in an 8 to 11 range with volume remaining
positive. One to watch for a move back through 11 and back through the
2004 high of 14. Downside risk is back to 5.
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RMI - Rotonics 2.65
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
Rotonics Manufacturing, Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of
plastic products for commercial, agricultural, refuse, pharmaceutical,
marine, recreation, medical waste, healthcare, retail, recreation, and
residential use; as well as an array of custom molded plastic products to
customers in various industries. Its products include various kinds of
storage tanks, bin lids, and refuse containers for automated removal,
medical waste containers, agricultural/livestock products, kayaks, outdoor
polysteel lamp posts, furniture, planters, and other rotonically molded
items. The company markets its products through its in-house sales and
engineering staff, various distributors, and outside sales
representatives. It has operations in Itasca, Illinois; Deerfield,
Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Bartow, Florida. Rotonics Manufacturing
is headquartered in Gardena, California.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Year's range is 4.50 to 2.00 and the stock appears to be forming a base
here at 2.50. Risk is back to 1.00, but upside is back to 4.50 or higher.
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SMTR - SmarTire Systems .09
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
SmarTire Announces Improved First Fiscal Quarter Sales<BR>
Wednesday November 9, 11:28 am ET
RICHMOND, British Columbia, Nov. 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SmarTire
Systems Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: SMTR - News) announced today gross
revenue of approximately $594,000 for the quarter ended October 31, 2005,
an increase of approximately $292,000 or 97% from the same quarter of
2004. Total sales to the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) market for
the quarter ended October 31, 2005 were approximately $437,000, an
increase of approximately $264,000 or 153% from the same quarter of 2004.
SmarTire will file its Form 10-QSB for the first quarter ended October 31,
2005 by December 15, 2005.
Al Kozak, president and CEO of SmarTire, said, "We are beginning to see
results from our shift in focus toward value-added systems for the OEM
market. We are very encouraged by these results. Although they are well
below where we expect to be in the coming quarters and years, it is clear
we are moving in the right direction."
SmarTire develops and markets proprietary advanced wireless sensing and
control systems worldwide, including tire pressure monitoring systems for
global vehicle markets. The U.S. government, through the TREAD Act, has
legislated that all new passenger vehicles must be equipped with tire
monitoring systems beginning with a phased implementation in 2004. This
has raised the awareness for tire monitoring throughout the vehicle
industry, and SmarTire is capitalizing on the rapidly emerging OEM and
aftermarket opportunities. SmarTire has offices in North America and
Europe.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
A true 'penny stock'. Back in April the stock surged from .03 to .26 in a
few days demonstrating its volatility. Whether SMTR will ever become a
consistent money maker in its current business model, we cannot say.
Traders would buy the stock here keeping a mental stop just under 6 cents.
Investors would buy and hold.
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SHORTS
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Sorry, no Short Watchlist to Report
Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service.
We would like to hear from each and everyone of
our subscribers. Our email is mark@vrsurvey.com.
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Wednesday, November 02, 2005
STOCKS: Bullish
BONDS: Neutral
GOLD: Bullish
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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Click here to see our Current Portfolio
http://www.vrtrader....lays/stocks.asp
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
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RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
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