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MARK HULBERT
http://www.marketwat...r...tw&dist=nbk

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http://www.siliconin...?msgid=23350191

INVESTORS INTELL FOR MAR 7

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INVESTORS INTEL FOR 4/11 US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 11 April 2007 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview In a small surprise, the % of bulls was slightly lower at 49.5%, after reaching a seven week high last week at 50.6%. That decline occurred despite the market advance during the shortened holiday trading last week. We view that as a mild positive sign as advisors did not jump on the bullish wagon when indexes moved above their recent tops and approached February highs. There were also more bears at 27.5%, up from 25.8% and ending four weeks of lower values. The recent peak for the bears was 28.9%, just after the early March index lows. The advisors looking for a correction were fewer at 23.0%, down from the previous 23.6%. Those looking for a correction are short term bearish, but longer term bullish. They are looking for market dips as opportunities to buy. We have seen lots of nervousness amongst the advisors this year, and they have been quick to react to any market rise or fall. This is the first time they have not followed the market and any further increase in their skepticism would be a positive signal. We consider ‘normal’ the reading for the bulls at 45% in a rising market, and we are not far above that level. The bears are still quite a good distance from their normal reading of 35%. Until the prior three weeks, the 2007 sentiment changes had been in the right direction, with fewer bulls and more bears. A resumption of that situation would be bullish, particularly if it occurs with a market rally. The late February decline below 50% for the bulls ended the previous bearish sentiment signal. Sentiment turned very negative in December 2006 when the bulls reached 59.8% and bears fell close to 20%. That is the historic range presented before major market tops, and advisor extremes traditionally occur well before the turn around. A new increase in the advisor’s optimism to above 55% would signal a likely end to market gains. The last very positive sentiment readings were last June. For a single week, the bulls and bears were exactly even at 35.6%, and the DJ Industrials traded at 11,014. (That was also the week of the advisors-correction high.) That was a positive signal that stocks were trading at a low risk area, and buying was in order. The best current scenario would show still less bulls and more bears, leading to another broad buying opportunity. The difference between the bulls and bears narrowed 2.5% to 22.0%. That ends four weeks of expanding spread, with that data at 24.5%, at 20.9%, 18.2% and 16.6%. That last reading, from 14-Mar, was the first prerequisite for a positive signal. That spread had been generally contracting since it was above 38% in mid-December, but it is now expanding for the second good sign. We view a difference of 15%, or less, as bullish, and then an expansion from there [upturn on the line chart] as a buy signal. The recent low difference was in that ball park. It was ‘0” mid-June 2006 and the spread indicator held that positive signal until the difference exceeded 30% in October.

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mark hulbert.....

http://www.marketwat...r...tw&dist=nbk

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Insiders report from Hulbert

http://www.marketwat.....012E6C5EA5AF}

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Bulls snorting over stocks, but not yet stampeding

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:12 AM ET Apr 26, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Not over yet? The Dow closes above 13,000, but the investment letters still aren't stampeding.
First a proprietary word: As of Wednesday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus 42.2%.
That's only modestly above the 34.1% level recorded in the past week, when stocks finally regained February's high. At that point, Mark Hulbert declared that the HSNSI response was so cautious as to be bullish from a contrary-opinion point of view. See April 16 column
For perspective, at the stock market's February high, the HSNSI stood at 62.4%.

As of Wednesday night, Hulbert thinks this continued caution continues to be bullish for stocks, contrarily.

He almost, but not quite, thinks the same thing about gold. As of Wednesday night, the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average gold market exposure among a subset of gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus 57.1%.
In contrast, the last time spot gold was pushing $690, in late winter, the HGNSI stood at 75%. That was near the high end of a historical range that extends from minus 31.3% on the low end and 89.6% on the high end. Negative HGNSI levels means that the average gold timing newsletter is recommending that its subscribers be short the gold market.

Hulbert thought that was bearish then. See Feb. 19 column He's not bearish on gold now but not exactly bullish, yet.

As of publication time on Wednesday night, I saw six hotlines from letters followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest. The overall tone is decisively bullish on stocks.

Some of these letters do mention possible short-term pull backs. Mike Turner of TurnerTrends wrote: "The market could continue on this tear for quite a while. I hope it does ... I'm still looking for a small correction of 5% or so. It is bound to happen when investors decide to take some money off of the table. But, I am not going to wait around for that 'possible' correction. It won't be big enough, in my opinion, to matter that much ..."
Doug Fabian's Making Money Alert commented: "I do not think now is the right time for investors currently on the sidelines to enter into broad-based equities. The risk of getting caught in a sharp pullback, in my view, is just too high. So, what do you do with your money? Well, fortunately there are sectors of the market that aren't completely extended."

These sectors, according to Fabian, include the Nasdaq, which is not yet at an all-time high, and Exchange Trade Funds like iShares:Dow US Hlthcr.
These letters don't have particularly Hulbert Financial Digest rankings. TurnerTrends is down 1.73% in the past 12 months, vs. a gain of11.33% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, and is also under water over the last three years. Doug Fabian's Successful Investing didn't lose money, but it gained only 1.61% over the past 12 months and significantly underperformed the market over 10 years. See April 24 column
But maybe a rising tide will lift all boats. End of Story


marketwatch.com

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INVESTORS INTEL US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 9 May 2007 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview The bulls increased to 53.3% from 51.7% last week, as the advisors finally showed a reaction to the market strength of the last four weeks. This is the most bulls we’ve counted since late January but both readings were well below last December’s levels, when the bulls almost reached 60%. The bears ran for cover, falling to 20.0% from the prior 24.7%. That large decline went mostly to the correction camp rather than the bulls. The current 20% reading is the lowest since 5-Aug-05, when we counted just 19.3%. That is a negative factor. Advisors looking for a correction moved up to 26.7% from 23.6% last time. This group is short term bearish, but longer term bullish. They are looking for market dips as opportunities to buy. While fewer advisors wished to remain bearish they were also reluctant to jump all the way to the bullish camp. The month long rally has not offered even a modest pull back to enter new positions. However we have seen the bulls rise from their recent low of 45.5% on March 9. Advisors hate to miss rising markets so the fact that the bulls are still well below the 60% level that often accompanies index highs is positive for the market. There is still more potential for near term upside action, despite of the fact that we are now in the negative six month period from May 1 to October 31. The last very positive sentiment readings were shown in June 2006. For a single week, the bulls and bears were exactly even at 35.6%, and the DJ Industrials traded at 11,014. (That was also the week of the advisors-correction high.) That was a positive signal that stocks were trading at a low risk area and buying was in order. The more favorable sentiment this year was in mid-March when the bulls traded at their ‘normal’ rising market reading at 45%. The bears came close to 30% at that time but remained a good distance from their normal reading of 35%. The difference between the bulls and bears expanded to 33.3%, from 27.0% last week. That is the widest margin since last October and this indicator is now negative. It may continue to expand and test the recent high spread above 38% from December. A ‘bull-bear’ difference that narrows to around 15% (or less) and then expands is giving a buy signal. That was shown in June 2006 and again on 14-March. Those are the two recent lows on the line chart. Sentiment Charts Bullish Themes “Compared to the final stages of the last bull market, which took place in the first quarter of 2000, this bull market is actually quite subdued, which is a good indication that it could stretch out for several more months, despite the fact that from, a time standpoint, it is mature. The public has yet to embrace this bull market and, in essence, there is ample cash on the sidelines. The amount of cash from recent buyouts alone comes to a staggering $185 billion. On top of this, the recent buyout frenzy has reduced the supply of stock for sale. Despite the fact that the majority of widely followed indexes are at, or near, record highs, there is still a great deal of skepticism out there. The short interest ratio on the NYSE is bumping up against 7.000, which is at a multi-year high, and since 2000, the short interest on the NYSE has doubled. On the other side of the ledger, specialist short selling remains well below average levels. Call buying on the ISE, although beginning to trend higher at 130, is well below previous peaks.” (26-Apr-07) The Chartist, PO Box 758, Seal Beach, CA 90740 “Last month, we stated that we expect the S&P 500 Index to challenge the cyclical bull market high-to-date which was in the mid 1400’s at that time. That challenge was mounted successfully during the month of April, as the S&P 500 registered new recovery highs. We continue to believe that the S&P 500 is poised to challenge the previous record high of 1527.46, which was recorded over seven years ago on March 24th, 2000. A successful challenge of that level will open the door to new stock market highs are well supported by our 2007 operating earnings forecast coupled with our valuation expectations.“ (3-May-07) Bob Brinker’s Marketimer, Suite 255, 858 Happy Canyon Rd, Castle Rock CO 80108-3908 Bearish Themes “The equities market is in the midst of the second-longest rally without a 10% correction. Logically speaking, it’s wise to lessen ones exposure to any investment after a 4½ year run. The odds are high that a reversal of some type is in the offing. Hence, our large position in cash. It will be highly unlikely for the market to beat yields of over 5% of money market instruments in 2007. In addition to cash, we like the Rydex Ursa fund (RYURX). The goal of this fund is to provide investment results which inversely correlate with performance of the S&P 500 Index. Simply put, if the S&P 500 goes down, the fund moves up in price. RYURX should be for aggressive accounts only as the value could drop in a market rally. Conservative investors should choose cash.” (4-May-07) The Yamamoto Forecast, POB 573 Kahului, HI 96733 “In a recent e-mail, an industry insider revealed that his careful study of syndicate activity in 1929 confirms that the parallel to the present is still solidly in place. “As for the late 1928-1929 ‘pool operators’ analogue, I have never seen or read about such financial sector combinations as exist today. Official Washington and the gullible public can only market at their ‘sophistication’ as stock, and still many property prices, especially commercial and high-end residential continue to go up. In the latest quarter, it became abundantly clear to me that eight core poolers (Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley) literally will go to any extreme to expand their balance sheets. If they can just keep adding and carrying more securities, often financed by very short term borrowings and rapidly unhedgeable basis risk, they can skip over any business trough.” When the trough turns out to be a way station on the way to depression, vast amounts of the paper these firms hold and distribute will be worthless.” (4-May-07) Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, POB 1618 Gainesville GA 30503 Newsletter Extracts Big Telecoms – Ready to Ring It Up? The Turnaround Letter | George Putnam III, Editor | Suite 801, 225 Friend Street, Boston MA 02114 | 617-573-9550 “We've been watching one of our purchase recommendations, AT&T (formerly SBC Communications) move steadily upward over the last year or so. There's been a lot going on at AT&T that is specific to the company. First, SBC merged with the old AT&T in 2005. Then the combined company merged with Bell South at the end of 2006. But as we looked at AT&T, we realized that there were favorable trends in the industry that will benefit many of the other large telecommunications companies as well. The stocks of these other large telecom companies have generally lagged the market in recent years, but we believe they may be poised to join AT&T on the upswing. Investors have shied away from the big telcos in recent years because of concerns that their traditional businesses were shrinking. Among other things, local landline services, which used to be a source of steady growth, are now suffering from competition from wireless and cable companies. However, the big telcos have been quietly building up new services to supplant the sagging wireline businesses. For example, most of them have thriving wireless businesses, which are constantly rolling out new services to generate more revenue. The companies are also having good success at selling data transmission services to both business and residential customers. After years of concern about the cable companies invading their turf, the big telecoms are now well positioned to fight back. They are laying fiber optic cable to the home, which will allow them to offer a host of new video and data services. Moreover, even where the phone companies are not laying fiber, new technologies are allowing them to offer additional services over the traditional copper phone lines. Most of the telecom companies have solid balance sheets that will support the fiber rollout and implementation of new technologies. In contrast, the cable companies are highly leveraged and are stuck with their older, coaxial cable networks which may not be able to handle the full spectrum of future services. The phone companies also have great brand recognition and reputations for reliable service that position them well as they roll out new products. Despite these potential advantages, the telecommunication companies trade at much lower valuations than the cable operators. For example, all of the telecoms mentioned, other than AT&T, have price-to-sales ratios of below 1.3, compared to over 3 for leading cable companies like Comcast and Time Warner Cable. Also, many of the telecom stocks pay generous dividends, while the cable companies are forced to use their cash to service their heavy debt loads. The seven companies discussed below represent global leaders in the telecommunications marketplace. They all have dominant positions in their local markets and the potential to grow steadily by expanding the services they offer. AT&T's recent merger with BellSouth gave it complete control of Cingular Wireless (since renamed AT&T Wireless), a leading wireless carrier that will account for about 35% of AT&T's revenues. In addition to a strong wireless presence, AT&T is rolling out fiber-based landline services. With revenues expected to be north of $120 billion in 2007 and substantial operating cash flow, AT&T is a force to be reckoned with. The dividend was just raised for the 22nd consecutive year, and the company is expected to repurchase roughly $7 billion worth of stock in 2007. BT Group, via its British Telecommunications unit, is the UK's largest communications service provider. While expanding its broadband and wireless capabilities at home, management is seeking to enlarge operations worldwide. Just recently, BT announced plans to acquire Comsat International, a leading communications company operating in Latin America. Acquisitions and joint ventures will play an important role in BT's future growth. Deutsche Telekom is Germany's largest teIecom provider and one of the largest players in the industry worldwide. The German government continues to own about one-third of the company. The company's T-Mobile unit that provides wireless services in the U.S. is an important source of growth to offset the deteriorating landline business in Germany. A new CEO appointed last November is seeking to revitalize the firm's landline business while also looking for new opportunities to expand internationally. France Telecom, a formerly state owned telecommunications giant, offers a balanced portfolio of wireless and landline products and services principally in France. Like many of its rivals, France Telecom has been fending off smaller competitors in the traditional landline sector by bundling broad packages of wireless and Internet-based services. Backed by strong cash flows, the company has embarked upon a three-year initiative to enhance its competitive position throughout Europe where it already has a strong presence in Britain, Poland, Spain and Holland. It will also be looking to make acquisitions, most likely in Africa and the Middle East. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone, privatized in 1985, remains the largest telecommunications company in Japan. In addition to landline operations, the firm offers mobile and data services through its NTT DoCoMo mobile and NTT Data units, respectively. While generally considered a quality provider, NTT faces increasing competition in its local markets. Nonetheless, the company has the resources to be a formidable player around the globe. Qwest Communications International, the product of the 2000 merger of Qwest and U.S. West, is arguably in a tougher competitive position relative to its peers as it is generally more reliant on traditional land line revenues (63% of total in 2006); its wireless segment - it is actually a reseller of wireless services using Sprint's network - remains rather small (4%). Its triple-play bundling package of voice, data, and video is being provided via satellite in partnership with Direct TV. However, as the smallest remaining "Baby Bell," Qwest could be an acquisition target. Verizon Communications was formed via the 2000 merger between Bell Atlantic and GTE. Verizon subsequently purchased MCI in January 2006. Wireless operations are provided through its 55% joint venture with Vodafone. Verizon is aggressively rolling out fiber connections with plans to reach 17 million homes by 2010. As the rollout progresses, Verizon could emerge as the leader in the quest to offer the "triple play" - voice, video and data. Despite Verizon's potential, the stock has languished for several years. With a yield over four percent, the stock is an attractive choice for conservative investors.” (May 2007) Out of Patience at the Wrong Time Profitable Investing | Richard E. Band, Editor | 9420 Key West Ave, 4th Floor, Rockville MD 20850 | 301-424-3700 “Investors are understandably losing patience - as they usually do, egged on by the Cramers of this world, at precisely the wrong time. Consider, instead, a few reasons why bank stocks may be nearing a pivot point, from which a powerful rally, lasting many months, could begin: • Banks' profit margins, compressed by the inverted yield curve, are probably within hailing distance of their cyclical low. Ever since the Federal Reserve started boosting short-term interest rates in June 2004, banks' cost of funds (the yield banks pay on deposits) has climbed faster than the average rate that banks earn on loans. In the past year, the so-called "inverted" curve, with yields on short maturities rising above those on long maturities, has only aggravated this profit pinch. But everything changes, just as the old Greek philosopher said. Short-term rates have remained flat (at 5.25% on the key federal funds rate) for 10 months now, giving banks time to adjust their loan pricing upward. Once deposit rates begin to fall, most likely in the latter months of 2007, interest margins-a crucial component in bank profits-will take off. • Loan losses are likely to be muted in 2007 and beyond. Sure, banks are reporting an uptick in residential mortgage delinquencies. However, it's important to keep such statistics in perspective. Less than 3 % of all home mortgages are currently more than 30 days overdue, and only about 1 % are in foreclosure. What's more, the nation's large commercial banks engage in many other types of lending besides home mortgages. Commercial real estate is still tooling along, business lending is solid, even credit cards are making good money. Unless you foresee a broad economic downturn with a dramatic jump in unemployment (I don't), there's little reason to fear that loan losses will sandbag bank earnings. If anything, I can imagine a surprise on the upside. • Bank dividends are delicious. For me, this is the decisive factor. People can fret about one problem or another. In the end, however, a company that throws off a plump, increasing dividend will enjoy a rising stock price. Bank stocks today feature some of the most alluring dividend yields of any market sector. At the end of April 2002 (five years ago), the 10 largest utilities in America by market value yielded 81% more than the 10 largest banks. The 10 largest real estate trusts boasted an even bigger advantage, yielding 162% more than the banks. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Today, the banks yield 34% more than the REITs and 41% more than the utilities. When you think about it, this state of affairs is crazy. Banks operate a far more diversified business than REITs or utilities, with a much better long-term record of earnings growth. Banks ought to yield less than REITs or utes - the pattern through most of the past 30 years. Today's anomalous behavior, I submit, reflects a bubble mentality that will eventually come back to haunt investors in the REIT and utility areas.” (May 2007)

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market hulber on richard russell........the recognition wave is having its predetermined effect.....

http://news.mornings...at=TopDJStories

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more great sediment numbas......bloggers hate the mkt

http://tickersense.t...poll/index.html

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a very historic event is about to take place..........in the weeks or days ahead.....a breakout coincident with a melt up appears to be close at hand for this ratio......the weekly ratio is miles ahead of the game

http://www.your401k....926 to 2007.jpg