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Guaranteed catastrophes


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#1 stocks

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 09:06 PM

While we debate phantom catastrophes, we ignore those dead ahead:

Scientific Probabilities

Three earthquakes that occurred in 1811 and 1812 near New Madrid, MO are among the Great earthquakes of known history, affecting the topography more than any other earthquake on the North American continent. Judging from their effects, they were of a magnitude of 8.0 or higher on the Richter Scale. They were felt over the entire United States outside of the Pacific coast. Large areas sank into the earth, new lakes were formed, the course of the Mississippi River was changed, and forests were destroyed over an area of 150,000 acres. Many houses at New Madrid were thrown down. "Houses, gardens, and fields were swallowed up" one source notes. But fatalities and damage were low, because the area was sparsely settled then.

The probability for an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater is significant in the near future, with a 50% chance by the year 2000 and a 90% chance by the year 2040. A quake with a magnitude equal to that of the 1811- 1812 quakes could result in great loss of life and property damage in the billions of dollars. Scientists believe we could be overdue for a large earthquake and through research and public awareness may be able to prevent such losses.

Los Angeles can expect to be mightily damaged by movement on the San Andreas Fault, or the Newport-Inglewood or other neighboring faults, most probably within the next 25 years. But the Eastern and Midwestern states also face ground shaking of colossal proportions, repetitions of such known upheavals as the 1886 Charleston, S.C., quake, the 1755 Boston quake, and the Jamaica Bay quake hundreds of years ago on New York's Long Island. The granddaddy of them all was the 1811-1812 series of three great quakes on the New Madrid Fault (halfway between St. Louis and Memphis beneath the mississippi), which shook the entire united States. The next time the New Madrid Fault produces such a quake, it is estimated 60 percent of memphis will be devastated, leaving $50 Billion in damage and thousands of dead in its wake. Memphis, you see - like Armenia - has looked down the barrel of a loaded seismic gun for decades, but has done virtually nothing to move out of the crosshairs.

http://asms.k12.ar.u...rds/science.htm

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#2 maineman

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 09:40 PM

God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.



mm

Edited by maineman, 01 February 2007 - 09:41 PM.

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#3 stocks

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 05:59 AM

California super-earthquake probably on its way

It should be no surprise for anybody that a major earthquake is way overdue in LA; a study has shown that the area has a 99% chance of a big earthquake in the next 30 years (well, 25 years, since the study was conducted in 2008). Even with a huge wake up call for the US (the Japan earthquake 2 years ago), the country is still largely unprepared for such an event. If something like this were to happen, the consequences would be disastrous.




Read more at http://www.zmescienc...XmUTx6GlPjuQ.99

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#4 stocks

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 04:23 PM

Worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike

The worst place in the United States for an extreme hurricane to strike is the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area, according to AIR Worldwide Corp.,
a catastrophe-modeling and weather-risk management company.
When AIR looks at the projected losses from nearly worst-case hurricane scenarios (the most severe storm in every 1,000 years to strike a particular location),
New York captures the No. 2 spot


Researchers say it's only a matter of time before another catastrophic hurricane (Category 3, 4, or 5) slams into our coastline. The problem is that when it
does strike, the potential for cataclysmic financial loss has grown exponentially with the increase in the nation's population and accumulation of wealth on the coastline.

Top 4 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike

1 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, FL
2 New York City, NY
3 Tampa/ St. Petersburg, FL
4 Houston/Galveston, Texas
5 New Orleans, LA

When inflation and increases in coastal population and wealth are taken into account, Hurricane Andrew's 1992 total losses of $26 billion would cost in excess of $41 billion today,
according to Christopher Landsea, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

By comparison, the total economic losses caused by the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 are currently estimated to exceed $80 billion.

Although it was not Florida's most powerful storm, the 1926 hurricane was the most powerful to strike Miami directly. Its winds averaged 76 mph for 24 hours. Damages from
the hurricane reached $115 million (in 1926 dollars) and more than 240 people died. According to Pielke and Landsea, if a hurricane of that magnitude were to strike Miami today, it
would be the costliest on record, with an estimated $80 billion in damage.


http://www.insure.co...ane-strike.html

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#5 stocks

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 06:04 AM

How does New York City's geography make it particularly vulnerable to storm surge?

Seawalls around the city are mostly only a few feet above normal high tide levels, so a relatively modest peak storm surge would flood into and shut down the subway system for several days. The funnel-shaped coastline offshore can focus and build a storm surge to a greater height, and the two water pathways through New York Bay and Western Long Island Sound can cause a merging surge that is difficult to predict.

We are located on a series of islands surrounded by water.

We have built up the wetlands, making the coastline brittle rather than porous.

And we have a huge underground infrastructure of subways and automotive tunnels.


Yes, the engineers have been warning about it for years.

A hurricane coming ashore over central New Jersey will push the water toward New York. The coasts of New Jersey and Long Island form a kind of a funnel that amplifies the height of the surge. This is exactly what happened during the Hurricane Sandy with disastrous consequences.

Of the five boroughs only the Bronx is on the mainland, all other boroughs are on islands. Much of the coastline of Brooklyn and Queens is low lying. Staten Island has portions of its coast actually below sealevel, "protected" by Hylan Blvd, which is raised a bit. That did not work during Sandy as the surge hit near high tide and easily swept over Hylan, flooding low lying areas so two friends of mine had their homes flooded. One actually had to retreat to her attic, and the water came to within four steps of the attic.
On top of that, NYC has many subway and road tunnels connecting various boroughs, and water flooded into many of those near the coast.

If a storm comes up the Atlantic, like Sandy, it pushes a large volume of water with it. The shape of NY Harbor funnels that water, until it has nowhere to go except up onto land as storm surge


http://answers.yahoo...27134301AAFQgB7

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#6 stocks

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Posted 20 January 2014 - 08:09 AM

The Cascadia fault is a subduction zone, a type of convergent plate boundary that stretches from northern Vancouver Island to northern California.

Major cities affected by a disturbance in this subduction zone would include Vancouver and Victoria, British Columbia; Seattle, Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Sacramento, California

Recent findings concluded the Cascadia subduction zone was more hazardous than previously suggested. The feared next major earthquake has some geologists predicting a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9 or higher in the next 50 years; however, the most recent studies suggest that this risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8 or higher.[15][16]

Geologists and civil engineers have broadly determined that the Pacific Northwest region is not well prepared for such a colossal earthquake. The tsunami produced may reach heights of approximately 30 meters (100 ft). The earthquake is expected to be similar to the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, as the rupture is expected to be as long as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami.

The last known great earthquake in the northwest was the 1700 Cascadia earthquake. Geological evidence indicates that great earthquakes may have occurred at least seven times in the last 3,500 years, suggesting a return time of 300 to 600 years. There is also evidence of accompanying tsunamis with every earthquake, and one line of evidence for these earthquakes is tsunami damage, and through Japanese records of tsunamis.[11]

The next rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone is anticipated to be capable of causing widespread destruction throughout the Pacific Northwest.



http://en.wikipedia....subduction_zone

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#7 stocks

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Posted 20 January 2014 - 08:50 AM

Three earthquakes that occurred in 1811 and 1812 near New Madrid, MO are among the Great earthquakes of known history, affecting the topography more than any other earthquake on the North American continent. Judging from their effects, they were of a magnitude of 8.0 or higher on the Richter Scale. They were felt over the entire United States outside of the Pacific coast. Large areas sank into the earth, new lakes were formed, the course of the Mississippi River was changed, and forests were destroyed over an area of 150,000 acres. Many houses at New Madrid were thrown down. "Houses, gardens, and fields were swallowed up" one source notes. But fatalities and damage were low, because the area was sparsely settled then.

The probability for an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater is significant in the near future, with a 50% chance by the year 2000 and a 90% chance by the year 2040. A quake with a magnitude equal to that of the 1811- 1812 quakes could result in great loss of life and property damage in the billions of dollars. Scientists believe we could be overdue for a large earthquake and through research and public awareness may be able to prevent such losses.


Prepare for a richter six earthquake

7 - 10% probability of a repeat of the 1811 - 1812 earthquakes
(magnitude 7.5 - 8.0) - anytime in the next 50 years

25 - 40% probability of a magnitude 6.0 or larger (source)


No longer 90%

The probability for magnitude 6 New Madrid earthquakes a few years ago was put above 90% in 50 years. The USGS changed the figures in 2002 to 25-40% for a magnitude 6.0 or greater and 7 - 10% for a catastrophic event in any 50-year period, based on all new science. The chances for a magnitude 6 were decreased, but chances were slightly increased for the catastrophic events. (news release)

Overdue for a 6

A quake below magnitude four is hardly noticed. A six can do serious local damage. A six happens roughly every hundred years in the New Madrid area. A magnitude 6.8 was centered at Charleston, MO (north end of New Madrid Fault) in 1895, which shook the entire Midwest. [That was 110 years ago! ] PDF report | US shake map.

Dr. J. David Rogers, an associate professor of geological engineering at the University of Missouri at Rolla, says Midwestern earthquakes are potentially more powerful than California quakes. According to Rogers, unique geology in the Midwest increases the shaking intensity of earthquakes because seismic energy moves through the dense bedrock at very high speeds, then becomes trapped in soft sediments filling river channels and valleys. Rogers and several graduate students have been modeling synthetic seismic events in the New Madrid region, which produced magnitude 8.0 quakes in 1811 and 1812. Most of their scenarios are modeled after an 1895 earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 that was centered in Charleston, Mo.

The preliminary results are sobering, says Rogers, who was recently appointed to Missouri's Seismic Safety Commission by Gov. Matt Blunt. Data indicates ground shaking would be magnified about 600 percent within the flood plain of the Missouri River, a development that would cause most of Missouri’s existing long-span bridges to collapse. “You don't even need a really big earthquake to do significant damage in Missouri,” Rogers says. “It could happen tomorrow.”



http://www.showme.ne...ke/strength.htm

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#8 stocks

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Posted 15 October 2014 - 07:31 AM

With several faults slicing through the San Francisco Bay Area, forecasting the next deadly earthquake becomes a question of when and where, not if.

Now researchers propose that four faults have built up enough seismic strain (stored energy) to unleash destructive earthquakes, according to a study published today (Oct. 13) in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

The Hayward Fault has banked enough energy for a magnitude-6.8 earthquake, according to the study. The Rodgers Creek Fault could trigger a magnitude-7.1 earthquake, and the Green Valley Fault also has the potential to unleash a magnitude-7.1 shaker. The Northern Calaveras Fault is set for a magnitude-6.8 temblor.

http://www.livescien...quake-risk.html

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#9 stocks

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Posted 22 July 2015 - 05:44 AM

The Cascadia fault is a subduction zone, a type of convergent plate boundary that stretches from northern Vancouver Island to northern California.

Major cities affected by a disturbance in this subduction zone would include Vancouver and Victoria, British Columbia; Seattle, Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Sacramento, California

Recent findings concluded the Cascadia subduction zone was more hazardous than previously suggested. The feared next major earthquake has some geologists predicting a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9 or higher in the next 50 years; however, the most recent studies suggest that this risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8 or higher.[15][16]

Geologists and civil engineers have broadly determined that the Pacific Northwest region is not well prepared for such a colossal earthquake. The tsunami produced may reach heights of approximately 30 meters (100 ft). The earthquake is expected to be similar to the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, as the rupture is expected to be as long as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami.

The last known great earthquake in the northwest was the 1700 Cascadia earthquake. Geological evidence indicates that great earthquakes may have occurred at least seven times in the last 3,500 years, suggesting a return time of 300 to 600 years. There is also evidence of accompanying tsunamis with every earthquake, and one line of evidence for these earthquakes is tsunami damage, and through Japanese records of tsunamis.[11]

The next rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone is anticipated to be capable of causing widespread destruction throughout the Pacific Northwest.

http://en.wikipedia....subduction_zone

A gigantic Earthquake off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with the potential to kill over 10,000 Americans, is many decades overdue.

The next Earthquake is at least 60 years overdue.

The Earthquake and tsunami are not the only problems which victims of the coming Earthquake will face. Fifteen per cent of Seattle is built on liquefiable land, including seventeen day-care centers and the homes of some thirty-four thousand five hundred people. . Liquefiable land is exactly what it sounds like – during a strong Earthquake it temporarily turns to a liquid similar to quicksand. Anything solid simply sinks into the ground.

The odds of a major in the next 50 years are estimated as one in three. A “full rupture”, which would generate a magnitude 9+ Earthquake just off the coast of the Western seaboard, estimated at one in ten.


http://wattsupwithth...fic-north-west/

Edited by stocks, 22 July 2015 - 05:45 AM.

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#10 stocks

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Posted 16 August 2015 - 03:41 AM

Earthquake hazard map:

http://earthquake.us...dMap2014_lg.jpg

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