Been a real nice week for some and not so nice for others. For true day traders, I'm not a day trader, you should have had a great week. For swing/position traders you should have had a great week, or at least a very profitable one.
Just a little review here to see where I think we are. The updated chart was posted back on 02/25/08 with a pattern contained inside the triangle and I posted some comments as to price falling. That statement was challenged quickly and as I was posting my reasons the SPX "shot up" 10+points. So I got a little heat from a poster or two, but did not change my suggested forecast. For several weeks have posted boundaries of 1409 to 1330, 1280, & 1018 maybe. We had a "managed rally" which turned out to just delay what the charts were suggesting. Below is the up dated chart as of tonight. The bottom of the triangle now becomes resistance.
These are the reasons I suggested a decline on the 25th and the "pump-up" breakout is clear.
Feb 25 2008, 02:22 PM
(tommyt @ Feb 25 2008, 02:10 PM) *
MSS...how do the graphs you posted make it look like its going down now? nothing even at the midpoint of the triangle, muchless falling thru any bottoms of your lines.
Third test of the top TL of price triangle and the MACD triangle and a back "off" at those points suggests she will at least test the bottom TL of both triangles. OF course nothing says it has to, but as stated, at time of posting, that appeared the projected path and so far that has not changed. It might, but RSI is not yet suggesting strength, not much above the mid point and has been in that area for several days while price and momentum have been consolidating, (coiling) which leaves the door open as to which way. Odds favor a test of 1338ish+ a nice drop.
The next chart is just a weekend update of the longer term view and no suggested big upward correction yet.
Comments always welcome,
mss