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Update on my models & analysis


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#21 Entropy3.0

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Posted 23 December 2008 - 10:57 PM

Seriously thoough Mark, really good stuff and thanks for sharing.

Was just 'pulling your leg' in my last post.

Merry Christmas BTW.


Thanks Tor and likewise ;) .

While I'm here, not much to add at moment on the IT/Swing front from what's in the thread - we've done what I expected i.e. rangebound 830- (920-940)
This is why I added shorts for a position trade as explained back Dec 9 on moves toward 920, its very hard to pick a top here trading ST moves...very choppy hard
to read, I prefer to trade them separately as per some posts on FF.....on this position trade I said I was prepared to take some pain above 950 for the excellent risk/reward, and maybe I still have some pain to come above 950 but I really believe the Intermediate price top is in now, sentiment certainly is a major sell, and technicals are finally starting to weaken. I do expect will likely get one more swing bounce before any major decline,, but I don't expect 920spx to be exceeded before 780spx is seen.

Merry xmas, happy & prosperous New Years to everyone.

best,
Mark

Edited by entropy, 23 December 2008 - 10:59 PM.

Pick a system, follow the system, ignore everything else.

#22 Entropy3.0

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Posted 02 January 2009 - 02:33 PM

Folks late Wed and today my intraday indicators reached the most overbought level since bear market began, and one of the highest including bull markets. Unfortunately stockcharts are messed up today so it can't show charts. High odds this means one of two things: 1. A breakout is finally about to occur OR 2. We are now putting in a major price top I favor the later, and have increased my 25% Position short to around 50% Position short around 920 today, so my overall position has been average in 910 area. This is not advice to trade, just stating my position as I always do. Talk is cheap and I try to state a position, without getting bogged down in posting real-time trades, i'm not going to do that unless everyone else is on a level playing field with objectively recorded entries/exits, too much time /effort and politics there. Now, I could get killed here if we break out and forefill the reverse H&S to 1000 that everyone expects. I use Profunds 2X leverage funds for my position trades, and the delta acts as another form of leveraging. But the risk/reward as I analyse it based off my models is too great to ignore - possibly 80pts upside versus 100's of downside ( remember i'm talk multi-week/month position trade here, not the swing or my day-trade stuff). * on a side note, I have been mulling the best way to post what I post, I've never quite figured it out. I'm still not sure, but I think I'm going to post more next year(ops that's THIS year now), but privately on my blog with a password ( no I don't have intensions of running a subscription, just restricting who can read my work) - dunno' but I will decide this weekend for 2009 year. There's a couple of main reasons for this change - 1. I greatly restrict what I post here, because I've put alot of work in to develop my idea's, and making them too public can reduce the effectiveness. If I posted privately with a agreement not to reproduce the work without permission, then I could say more. 2. The very reasonable restrictions here do also take time/effort to 'self censor' and also restrict what I can say. best, Mark.

Edited by entropy, 02 January 2009 - 02:41 PM.

Pick a system, follow the system, ignore everything else.

#23 bigtrader

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Posted 02 January 2009 - 02:50 PM

Mark Have always valued your comments. Hope your "subscription" if it comes would allow my read.
KISS my avatar!!!

#24 Entropy3.0

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Posted 02 January 2009 - 03:10 PM

FYI - I wanted to clarify something, but I couldn't get back to the site its running very slow. I added 25% today not in profunds, but with SPY ETF...so I have a mix now. Also as I had a few questions - IF I do the blog/password I'll give it to anyone who is not a professional i.e. not running a subscription themselves, not a fund manager etc.
Pick a system, follow the system, ignore everything else.

#25 gman

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Posted 02 January 2009 - 03:55 PM

Thank you Mark for you analysis. It's much appreciated. --John
Everything you know is wrong.
Black is white, up is down, and short is long.
And everything you thought was just so.

Important doesn't matter.

Weird Al Yankovic

#26 mss

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Posted 02 January 2009 - 05:33 PM

:) Nice work and comments again. Thanks for you contributions to this board Mark. Hope you include me in your list. Scott
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
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#27 inamosa

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Posted 02 January 2009 - 06:41 PM

Hello entropy I enjoy reading your analysis and would be very interested in reading any blog you may start Keep up the solid analysis and great posts you make around here I agree with you about the short position...next week, particularly the beginning, will be huge. Hopefully, we'll be on the right side of the trade. In any case, I've got tight stops in place - as I'm sure you do. You're right that this opportunity doesn't come along very often. Thanks for the update and cheers
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#28 redbrush

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Posted 03 January 2009 - 09:44 AM

Mark, I wonder if history will repeat. I was starting to think that price action was looking better because price was crossing above a flattening 50 day moving average and the 21 day was trying to cross above the 50 day. So I went back and looked at the 21 day and 50 day moving averages from the bottom we previously discussed in 1974 and noticed a very similar pattern In 1974 the market bottomed on 10/4/74 and rallied 21% in 23 days finally making it above a flattening 50 day moving average and the 21 day crossing above it. Following the crossover the rally ended abruptly and then dropped 17% over the next 20 trading days to retest its bottom and make a slightly new low. Interestingly enough this current market has rallied 21.7% from the 11/20 bottom in 26 trading days (maybe the holidays had something to do with the extension in time). The 50 day moving average has flattened and the 21 day is trying to cross above it. Price has now moved above these averages similar to 1974 when the rally abruptly ended and then returned to test and make slightly new lows from where the major bottom and significant rally occurred. We should know soon if we get this retest or not and I agree the risk/reward is very interesting right now. I intend to initiate my short postion on the bounce after the first decline when the hourlies get overbought with stops at whatever highs we make in here. I also would like to be kept on your email list when you start your blog. Bill

#29 voy

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Posted 03 January 2009 - 03:21 PM

Thanks for the updates Entropy. It would be great to see your blog when it's up. Thanks, Joe

#30 Entropy3.0

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Posted 03 January 2009 - 04:10 PM

Blog ...it nothing too exciting but yeah I'm working on it, this is a test post below, let me know if you can't see the chart below.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=13&i=p98649882580&a=156874023&r=462.png
Pick a system, follow the system, ignore everything else.