VRTrader Update
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TTHQ Staff
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Posted 04 January 2010 - 07:50 AM
TheVRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 1/4/2010
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2010, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2010, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
LEIBOVIT FILES | by MarkLeibovit
Leibovit Files
Monday, January 04, 2010
December 31 Sell-Off - A Bear Trap Or The Real McCoy?
The World Outlook Conference 2010
at the Sheraton Wall Centre in Vancouver, B.C., January 22-23, 2010.Don't miss it http://www.worldoutlookconference.com/
---------------------------------------------
UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
JANUARY 4 - 8, 2010:
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MONDAY, January 31, 2009:
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart speech ongovernment crisis response to the American Economic Associationconference in Atlanta.
10:15 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
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TUESDAY, January 31, 2009:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
---------------------------------------------
WEDNESDAY, January 31, 2009:
Weird Wally Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, January 31, 2009:
Monster Employment Index
6:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET
Tom Hoenig Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
FRIDAY, January 31, 2009:
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speaks to theMaryland Bankers Association "First Friday" Economic Outlook Forum inBaltimore.
1:35 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
STOCKS - ACTION alert -
Concerns surrounding rising interest rates brought on a round ofprofit taking on the last day of 2009 as the indices closed lower. Forthe session the Dow was off 120.46 at 10428.05. the S&P 500 was off11.32 at 1115.10, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 22.13 at 2269.15.Volume decreased from Wednesday and breadth was negative.
Friday's vicious sell-off may not have been a bear trap, as therally that preceded it was accompanied by declining volume and we didexperience a couple of key Negative Volume Reversals ™ in theprocess namely in the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite along with theRussell 2000 and the broad-based Total Stock Market Index (VTI). I ampresently erring on the side of caution and would like to see where thedust settles.
I have mixed feelings moving forward as my Annual Forecast Model forall the major markets will be not be completed until later in Januaryand my overall 'gut' feeling (previously expressed) was that we couldexperience a sharp correction during the first quarter of 2010 beforemoving dramatically higher.
With the first five days of the year historically being a roughguide to future market action and sentiment, it is also important tosit back see which way market winds are blowing. Strength in the U.S.Dollar Index and rising long-term interest rates are now suddenly beinginterpreted as market positives when common sense says just theopposite is true. There is clearly something 'rotten in Denmark'.
---------------------------------------------
European shares closed slightly higher Thursday in a shortened finaltrading session of 2009 as the region wrapped up its best trading yearin a decade. The FTSE Eurofirst 100 rose 0.2% to 3,345.58, in thintrading, with gains for miners and some banks helping tip the regionhigher. The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.02% at 3,936.33 Thursday.The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index wasn't calculated Thursday as somemarkets, including Germany and Italy, remained closed.
The year ended on a sour note as traders headed for the exits,locking in profits amid uncertainty over what lies ahead in 2010.Thursday's trade was nothing monumental, however, as the light tradingconditions gave no exclamation point to the selloff.
For December, the Dow gained 0.80%, the S&P 500 gained 1.78%,the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.81%, and the Russell 2000 gained 7.88% asthe renewed flow toward risk was evident.
Gold miners (GDX +0.74%), gold (GLD +0.36%), and silver (SLV +0.06%)all outperformed the equity indices as traders shunned both equitiesand treasuries. IEF and TLT each lost 0.48%.
The lone bright spot for the bulls was high yield bonds as HYGgained 0.16%.
Financials were spared the brunt of the selling effort as XLF lostonly 0.21%. XLF rallied up to touch its 50 day moving average beforeturning lower, as it managed to post a Positive VR on Thursday.
Materials (XLB -1.27%) were among the laggards as were the DowTransports (-1.84%) and real estate (IYR -1.94%).
Though Technology (XLK -0.86%) fell with the market on Thursday, itdid manage to hit another recovery high in the morning.
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index also managed to hit a new highThursday morning, before closing down 1.39%.
--------------------------------------------
DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
Transportations stocks were hit hard especially hard on Thursday asYRC's stock price falls and dragged down other truckers as well. TheDow Jones Transportation Average lost 76.88 or 1.84% to close at4099.63.
YRC Worldwide Inc., one of the nation's largest trucking companies,said Thursday it has cleared a critical hurdle in its effort to avoidfiling for bankruptcy protection by completing a debt-for-equityexchange with its bondholders. The company, based in Overland Park,Kan., said $470 million of its outstanding debt was tendered byholders, which it will exchange with 37 million common shares and about4.3 million convertible shares. Together that will make the stakes ofcurrent shareholders virtually worthless. Now that the debt-to-equityswap is completed, the company will be able to defer approximately $19million in lender interest and fees that had been due Thursday and willhave access to a $159.8 million credit line. The company also said itexpects to defer $20 million to $25 million in additional lenderinterest and fees per quarter during 2010. The company warned earlierthis month that it needed access to a $106 million standby credit lineand permission from its lenders to delay a $19 million payment in orderto avoid bankruptcy. YRCW declined 15.17%. Rival Con-way (CNW) lost9.82%.
---------------------------------------------
GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
Precious metals rallied Thursday morning on a weak dollar, but thengave up some of their gains as the Dollar recovered. Gold finished theday up 4.30 to 1096.40. Silver was up 0.12 to 16.87. Platinum was up 12to 1467. Palladium was up 14 to 406.
Copper rose to a 16-month high on concern that a strike may disruptsupplies from Chile. Copper futures finished the day up 0.0015 at3.3465 after hitting a new recovery high of 3.3790 Thursday morning.
Workers at Codelco's Chuquicamata copper mine, the world'ssecond-largest, plan to begin a strike on Jan. 4 after receivingapproval from Chile's Work Inspectorate, union official Miguel Lopezsaid. The country is the world's biggest copper producer.
Former Fed chief Paul Volcker, said on Oct 15th, it was difficult,but necessary, for the Fed to start draining the billions of dollars inliquidity even while unemployment remains high as the US battles out ofrecession. You have to act against what seems like common sense. If youwait, its too late, he warned. Two-months later, the Bernanke Fed isstill signaling ultra-low rates for an extended period of time.
But would a campaign of baby-step Fed rate hikes knock the goldmarket off its upward trajectory? Gold tumbled by nearly 10% from itsall-time high of $1,225 /oz in recent weeks, on ideas that Fed ratehikes might come sooner rather than later, as suggested by the yieldcurve. For chartists, the latest slump in gold is a classic removal ofspeculative froth, which normally follows a parabolic rise.
If history is a guide to the future, the gold market has been ableto climb sharply higher, alongside a rising fed funds rate. The Fedslast rate hiking cycle, - starting in June 2004, - and beginning withthe fed funds rate at 1%, wasnt able to cap golds powerful advance thruMay 2006, until the fed funds rate was lifted to 5.25-percent. Thus,for two-years, gold rose 40%, alongside a 425-basis point increase inthe fed funds rate, since the Fed was lingering far behind theinflation curve.
The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only anadditional $50 per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 permonth. Email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com to sign up today!
---------------------------------------------
BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries fell on Thursday after the better than expected joblessclaims report in the morning, but recovered most of its losses when thestock market fell into the close. The long bond future declined 16/32to 115 11/32, but traded as low as 114 16/32..
Ten-year yields jumped about 66 basis points since November, thebiggest monthly increase since April 2004. The benchmark yield is up1.60 percentage points this year, the biggest annual jump since 1999.
Yields on 2-year notes have increased 48 basis points in December,the first month up in five and the biggest increase since April 2008.But for 2009, the 2-year has been relatively stable, its yield risingonly 0.39 of a point from record lows set about a year ago.
The 10- and 30-year yields hit their highest levels since thesummer. The 10-year is at 3.843% and 30-year is 4.641%. However,short-term rates continue to hover just above 0%. The 90-day T-billyield is 0.05%. Just Wednesday, the Treasury auctioned off 36-day billsat a rate of 0%.
Will the rising interest rates hurt the economy? Especially housing?
Freddie Mac said Thursday the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averagerose from the previous week to 5.14% with an average 0.7 point for theweek ending Dec. 31. In the previous period, the average was 5.05%, andthe year-ago average was 5.10%. "Although long-term mortgage rates rosefor the fourth week in a row, they still remain affordable byhistorical standards. Based on today's median loan amount of $138,000,monthly principal and interest payments for a 30-year fixed-ratemortgage are close to one-third less than a decade ago when ratespeaked at 8.6% in May 2000. This translates into almost 50% less ininterest payments over the full 30-year term," said Frank Nothaft,Freddie Mac chief economist.
According to Bloomberg, Treasuries were the worst performing G-7debt in 2009: "Treasuries declined, poised for the worst performancethis year among Group of Seven nations as the U.S. sold record amountsof debt, including $118 billion of notes this week, to help spur arecovery from recession. U.S. securities are headed for the worst yearin at least three decades, with 10-year yields at the highest levelsince June... U.S. debt has fallen 3.5 percent since last December,according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, the biggest slidesince 1978. Treasuries fell the most this year among G-7 countries,followed by U.K. gilts, which lost 1.7 percent and Canadian debt's 1.5percent slump, Merrill indexes show. Holders of Italian debt gained themost, adding 8.1 percent."
---------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil hit $80 Thursday morning but closed with a small gain of 0.08 at79.36.
Natural gas fell 0.137 to 5.572 after inventories fell less thanexpected.
Government data showed U.S. gas inventories fell last week less thananalysts had expected. Natural gas inventories fell 124 billion cubicfeet in the week ended Dec. 25, the Energy Information Administrationreported. Analysts expected a drop of 147 billion cubic feet.
---------------------------------------------
US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The US Dollar Index fell in the morning but recovered its losses asthe equity market declined. Higher Treasury rates are also enticinginvestors to buy US denominated debt. The US Dollar Index was up 0.002to 77.916.
--------------------------------------------
ECONOMIC NEWS:
The number of people filing initial claims for state unemploymentbenefits fell 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 432,000 in the week endedDec. 26, the lowest level since summer 2008, the Labor Departmentreported Thursday. Economists expected initial claims to come in at455,000. The level of initial claims in the week ended Dec. 19 wasrevised up by 2,000 to 454,000. The four-week average of initial claimsdropped 5,500 to 460,250, the lowest since September 2008. The numberof continuing claims, which reflects people who have been collectingstate benefits for an extended period, decreased 57,000 to 4.98 millionin the week ended Dec. 19. The four-week average of continuing claimsdropped 122,000 to 5.22 million, the lowest rate since last March. Inthe week ended Dec. 12, meanwhile, the number of people claimingbenefits of any kind -- state or federal -- totaled 10.2 million, notseasonally adjusted. That was up from 10 million in the previous week.
Mortgage lender Nationwide on Thursday said British house pricesrose 0.4% in December, bringing the yearly rise to 5.9%.
---------------------------------------------
The Annual Forecast Model (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted at thewebsite - so sign up today! Remember, there is no price too high forgood information! Don't make the mistake of not subscribing. Lastyear's AFM warned in January we were entering a multi-month bearmarket! Gold-bug? Check on the AFM for Gold!
https://www.vrtrader.com/subscribe/index.asp
---------------------------------------------
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TIMER DIGEST signals for Stocks, Gold and Bonds are available toPlatinum subscribers on the Home Page.
TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THEYEAR' for 2006 and was named the #2 Timer for 2007.
More kudos - Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 IntermediateMarket Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYSTSURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMINGAS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-yearperiod ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to:03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for stocks:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
'Sell' signal September 2, 2009.
'Buy' signal September 3, 2009.
'Sell' signal October 15, 2009.
'Buy' signal November 13, 2009.
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for Gold:
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Mark Leibovit is currently ranked the #2 Market Timer for the 3month period ending October 23, 2009.
---------------------------------------------
DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the fulllist only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VRList' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com. Canadian shares are listed atthe bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinumwhere you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch thepatterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on theplanet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they areproprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and areparticularly useful in defining lows or highs in stocks and stockindexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming offmarket extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRsin conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added aunique technical tool to your arsenal.
What is a Volume Reversal ™? There are several proprietarysubtleties to the Volume Reversal ™ algorithm, but essentially aVolume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction dayaccompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day toRally day accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals ™coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance inhelping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in themarketplace. The Volume Reversals ™ presented here provide you witha unique research tool that may have trading (short-term) significance,but it also may have 'trend changing' (intermediate) significance aswell. The sector Volume Reversals ™ show where big money is possiblyaffecting an entire group of stocks. The stocks listed under the grouphave posted Volume Reversals ™ along with the group as a whole. Theindividual stocks listed have posted Volume Reversals ™ on their ownand are valid plays as well.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please go ourCurrent Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or, ifyou would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please clickhere. Please note that not all symbols may be currently available:
http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_platinum/GetVRChart.asp
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VOLUME REVERSALS FOR DECEMBER 31, 2009:
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POSITIVE VRs
---------------------------------------------
XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
ATD.B ALIMENTATION COUCHE-T CL B
CG.UN CENTERRA GOLD
CRQ.UN CLAYMORE CANADIAN FUN
FNV FRANCO NEVADA CORPORA
FTS FORTIS INC
G.UN GOLDCORP
GAM.UN GAMMON GOLD INC
HBU HORIZONS BETAPRO COME
IVN.UN IVANHOE MINES
K.UN KINROSS GOLD
PAA.UN PAN AMERICAN SILVER
PJC.A JEAN COUTU GROUP INC CL A
SJR.B SHAW COMMUNICATIONS I CL B
SNC SNC-LAVALIN GROUP COM
SU.UN SUNCOR ENERGY
TRI.UN THOMPSON REUTERS
VEM VENA RESOURCES INC
XIC IUNITS COMPOSITE CDN
XMA ISHARES CDN S&P/TSX C
XRE ISHARES CDN S&P/TSX C
---------------------------------------------
U.S. STOCKS:
---------------------------------------------
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Manufacturers - Major
DAI Daimler Ag
HMC Honda Motor Co Ltd Adr
TM Toyota Motor Corp Ads
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
ARM Arvinmeritor Inc
AXL American Axle & Manufact
MGA Magna Internat Inc
TRW Trw Automotive Hldgs Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Recreational Vehicles
PII Polaris Industries Inc
THO Thor Industries Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
FSS Federal Signal Corp
BANKING Money Center Banks
BAC Bank Of America Corp
BMO Bank Of Montreal
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
LNBB Lnb Bancorp
MCBC Macatawa Bank Corp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
BTFG Banctrust Financial Group Inc
CADE Cadence Financial Corp
CTBI Community Trust Bncp Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
ABBC Abington Community Bancorp Inc
BOFI BofI Holding Inc
CAFI Camco Financial Corp
CFBK Central Federal Corporation
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Based Systems
TLVT Telvent Git Sa Ord
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
APKT Acme Packet Inc
ELX Emulex Corp
IGOI Mobility Electronics
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Healthcare Information Service
ECLP Eclipsys Corporation
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
HDY HyperDynamics Corp
RDWR Radware Ltd
SYNT Syntel Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Multimedia & Graphics Software
TDSC 3d Systems Corp
THQI Thq Inc
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
FO Fortune Brands Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
LYTS Lsi Industries Inc
OPMR Optimal Group Inc Cl 'a'
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
SNE Sony Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Home Furnishings & Fixtures
NTZ Natuzzi S.p.a.
STLY Stanley Furniture Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Photographic Equipment & Suppl
CHYR Chyron Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Recreational Goods
FOSL Fossil Inc
JADE Lj Internat Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
NLS Nautilus Group Inc (the)
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
FNET FortuNet
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Consumer Services
KDE 4kids Entertainment Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Education & Training Services
CECO Career Education Corp
CEDU Chinaedu Corp
COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Personal Services
HI Hillenbrand` Inc.
WOOF Vca Antech
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Rental & Leasing Services
WLFC Willis Lease Finance Cp
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Security & Protection Services
CFL Brink's Home Security
GEO Geo Group (The)
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
CCRN Cross Country Healthcare
CITP Comsys It Partners Inc
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
SPPI Spectrum Pharm Inc
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
ARNA Arena Pharmaceuticals
BMRN Biomarin Pharmaceuticals
KG King Pharmaceuticals Inc
PGNX Progenics Pharm Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
AFFX Affymetrix Inc
CALP Caliper Life Sciences Inc
CAMT Camtek Ltd
CPHD Cepheid
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
CY Cypress Semiconductor Cp
STM Stmicroelectronics Nv
WEDC White Electronic Designs
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
HITT Hittite Microwave Corp
LAVA Magma Design Automation Inc
WFR Memc Electronic Material
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Memory Chips
ATML Atmel Corp
RMTR Ramtron Internat Corp
SIMG Silicon Image Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc
MEMS Memsic Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
AMAT Applied Materials Inc
ASMI Asm Internat N.V.
ASX Advanced Semicondctr Ads
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
CEO Cnooc Ltd Adr
ECA Encana Corporation
HUSA Houston American Energy Corp
ENERGY Major Integrated Oil & Gas
COP Conocophillips
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
ENY EnerNorth Industries Inc
PDC Pioneer Drilling Co
PKD Parker Drilling Co
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
DPM DCP Midstream Partners LP
ENB Enbridge Inc
EP El Paso Corp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
EPE Enterprise Group Holdings LP
IMO Imperial Oil Ltd
IOC Interoil Corporation
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
AMG Affiliated Managers Grp
BKF Bkf Capital Group
DUF Duff & Phelps Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
ADRA BLDRS Asia 50 ADR Index Fund E
BBK Blackrock Municipal Bond Trust
BCL Blackrock California Municipal
BFO Blackrock Fl Muni 2020
BSE Blackrock Ny Ins Muni Inc Trus
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ADRD BLDRS Developed Markets 100 AD
ADRU BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index Fun
BIK SPDR S&P BRIC 40 ETF
BLU Blue Chip Value Fund Inc
CET Central Securities Corp
DBS PowerShares DB Silver Fund
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
AEA Advance America
AXP American Express Co
COF Capital One Financial Cp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
LAB Labranche & Co Inc
LMI Legg Mason Corp Unit
OPY Oppenheimer Hldgs Inc
RJF Raymond James Financial
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Brewers
FMX Fomento Economico Mex
TAP Molson Coors Brewing Co
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
WBD Wimm Bill Dann Foods Ojsc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
STZ Constellation Brands Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Farm Products
GRO Agria Corp
SEED Origin Agritech Ltd
FOOD & BEVERAGE Food - Major Diversified
ADM Archer Daniels Midland
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
SEB Seaboard Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
JVA Coffee Holding Co Inc
OFI Overhill Farms Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ALC Assisted Living Concepts Inc.
BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
BABY Natus Medical
BFRM Bioform Medical Inc
CHIO China Insonline Corp
INSURANCE Surety & Title Insurance
Y Alleghany Corp
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
KNOT The Knot Inc
LOOK Looksmart Ltd
INTERNET Internet Service Providers
CTCH Commtouch Software Ltd
DGI Digital Globe Inc.
GSB Globalscape Inc
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
DRIV Digital River Inc
LQDT Liquidity Services
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
ALAN Alanco Technologies
ALY Allis-Chalmers Energy Inc
MANUFACTURING Farm & Construction Machinery
ASTE Astec Industries
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
FELE Franklin Electric Co Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Equipment & Compone
MAS Masco Corp
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
MKTAY Makita Corp Spons Adr
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Residential Construction
AVTR Avatar Holdings Inc
MEDIA Advertising Services
IPG Interpublic Gr Of Cos
MEDIA CATV Systems
L Liberty Media Corp
LBTYA Liberty Global Inc Class A
METALS & MINING Aluminum
AA Alcoa Inc
METALS & MINING Gold
ABX Barrick Gold Corp
CDY Cardero Resource Corp
GRS Gammon Lake Resources
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
GMO Idaho General Mines Inc
MFN Minefinders Corp
SWC Stillwater Mining Co
METALS & MINING Silver
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp
MVG Mag Silver Corp
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
SCHN Schnitzer Steel Indust
SHLO Shiloh Industries Inc
SUTR Sutor Technology Group
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
ARL American Realty Invest
CTO Consolidated-Tomoka Land
DFT DuPont Fabros Technology
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
KRC Kilroy Realty Corp
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties
PPS Post Properties Inc
UBA Urstadt Biddle Properties
REAL ESTATE REIT - Retail
AKR Acadia Realty Trust
MAC Macerich Co
REG Regency Centers Corp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
CHRS Charming Shoppes Inc
PLCE Children's Place Rtl Str
SPECIALTY RETAIL Auto Dealerships
KMX Carmax Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
SBH Sally Beauty Holdings Inc.
SGU Star Gas Partners Lp Sbi
TITN Titan Machinery Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
DRJ Dreams Inc
SPCHB Sport Chalet Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Toy & Hobby Stores
BBW Build-a-bear Workshop
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ADTN Adtran Inc
EAG Eagle Broadband Inc
EFJI Efj Inc
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
AMR Amr Corporation
TRANSPORTATION Railroads
CNI Canadian Natl Railway
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
ALGT Allegiant Travel Co
LUV Southwest Airlines Co
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
ACLI American Commercial Lines Inc
CKH Seacor Holdings Inc
FREE FreeSeas Inc
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
AEY Addvantage Tech Group
WHOLESALE Food Wholesale
SVU Supervalu Inc
UNFI United Natural Foods Inc
WHOLESALE Industrial Equipment Wholesale
CFK Ce Franklin Ltd
KHD Khd Humboldt Wedag Intl Ltd
TTES T-3 Energy Services Inc
WHOLESALE Wholesale
DFS Department 56 Inc
HWKN Hawkins Chemical Inc
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NEGATIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
CIE.UN CLAYMORE INTL FUNDAMENTALS
DAY.UN DAYLIGHT RESOURCES TR
GTE.UN GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
HGD.UN HORIZONS BETAPRO GLB TU-A
HNU HORIZONS NAT GAS BULL PLUS
PVE.UN PROVIDENT ENERGY TRUS
TWF.UN TIMBERWEST FOREST COR
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U.S. STOCKS:
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AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
ALV Autoliv Inc
STRT Strattec Security Cp
WAB Wabtec
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
WNC Wabash National Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
EUBK Eurobancshares Inc
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
BNCN BNC Bancorp NC
CBKN Capital Bank Corp Rlghnc
FMAR First Mariner Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
CSNT Crescent Banking Company
FCFL First Community Bank Corp
FPBI FPB Bancorp Inc
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
IFF Internat Flavors & Frag
SXT Sensient Technologies Cp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
IN Intermec Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Diversified Computer Systems
JAVA Sun Microsystems Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
ADBE Adobe Systems Inc
BLSW Bridgeline Software
GUID Guidance Software Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information & Delivery Service
DNB Dun & Bradstreet Corp
GNET Global Traffic Network Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
SXE Stanley Inc
TEAM Techteam Global Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
CHRD Chordiant Software Inc
MANH Manhattan Associates Inc
NATI National Instruments Cp
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
TFX Teleflex Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
DBD Diebold Inc
VIRC Virco Manufacturing Cp
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
DTSI DTS Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Housewares & Accessories
LANC Lancaster Colony Corp
LCUT Lifetime Brands Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
CYB Cybex Internat
HED Head Nv
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
RADA Radica Games Ltd
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
CCK Crown Holdings Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Paper & Paper Products
AVY Avery Dennison Corp
BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc
DRUGS Drug Related Products
PBH Prestige Brands Holdings
ELECTRONICS Diversified Electronics
MEI Methode Electronics Cl A
ELECTRONICS Printed Circuit Boards
JBL Jabil Circuit Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
CVI Lehman Abs Corp Sr
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
ACTL Actel Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
IMOS Chipmos Technologies Bermuda
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
CPE Callon Petroleum Co
ISRL Isramco Inc
TMR Meridian Resource Corp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
DNE Dune Energy Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
WRES Warren Resources Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
ASH Ashland Inc
WNR Western Refining Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
AINV Apollo Investment Corp
BCV Bancroft Convertible Fd
HPS John Hancock Pref Incm Fd Iii
IEI iShares Lehman 3-7 Year Treasu
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
AGG Aggregate Bond
BLV Vanguard Long Term Bond ETF
DZZ DB Gold Double Short ETN
EEV Ultrashort Msci Emerg Mrkt
EWN iShares MSCI Netherlands Index
EXT WisdomTree Total Earnings Fd
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
DEB WisdomTree Europe Total Divide
EEA European Equity Fund Inc
ISL First Israel Fund Inc
TEI Templeton Emerg Mkts Incm Del
USY WisdomTree U.S. Current Income
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
NEWS Newstar Financial Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
ICH Investors Capital Holdings Ltd
SMCG Millennium India Acq Co Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
ISM SLM Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
ITG Investment Technology
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
HANS Hansen Natural Corp
KO Coca-Cola Co
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
AGII Argonaut Group Inc
HGIC Harleysville Group Inc
MKL Markel Corp
LEISURE Gaming Activities
PENN Penn National Gaming Inc
LEISURE Restaurants
BKC Burger King Holdings Inc
BNHN Benihana Inc
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
IIN IntriCon Corp
MNTX Manitex International` Inc. Co
MX Metso Corp
PRST Presstek Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
GB Greatbatch Inc
WGOV Woodward Governor Co
MANUFACTURING Industrial Equipment & Compone
[bleeep] [bleeep] Inc
B Barnes Group Inc
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
RBC Regal-Beloit Corp
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
RT Ryerson Tull Inc
MANUFACTURING Pollution & Treatment Controls
MFRI Mfri Inc
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
PFIN P & F Industries Cl A
MANUFACTURING Textile Manufacturing
MHK Mohawk Industries Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
DHR Danaher Corp
RPM Rpm International
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
BXG Bluegreen Corp
CXW Corrections Corp Of Amer
NEN New England Realty Assoc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
FAC First Acceptance Corp
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
CPV Correctional Props Trust
RETAIL Auto Parts Stores
ORLY O'reilly Automotive Inc
RETAIL Department Stores
BONT Bon-Ton Stores Inc
RETAIL Drug Stores
PSMT Pricesmart Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Music & Video Stores
TWMC Trans World Entertain Cp
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ANTP Phazar Corp
DITC Ditech Communications Cp
IKAN Ikanos Communications
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Long Distance Carriers
T At&T Corp
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Foreign
MICC Millicom Intl Cellular Sa
SURW Sure West Communications
TCL Tata Communication Ltd
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
EXPD Expeditors Int Wash Inc
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
BAB British Airways Plc Adr
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
ALEX Alexander & Baldwin Inc
ULTR Ultrapetrol Ltd
UTILITIES Gas Utilities
ATO Atmos Energy Corp
NWN Northwest Natural Gas Co
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
ISIG Insignia Systems Inc
RELL Richardson Electrns Ltd
WHOLESALE Medical Equipment Wholesale
HSIC Henry Schein Inc
---------------------------------------------
Leibovit Files
Monday, January 04, 2010
December 31 Sell-Off - A Bear Trap Or The Real McCoy?
The World Outlook Conference 2010
at the Sheraton Wall Centre in Vancouver, B.C., January 22-23, 2010.Don't miss it http://www.worldoutlookconference.com/
---------------------------------------------
UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
JANUARY 4 - 8, 2010:
---------------------------------------------
MONDAY, January 31, 2009:
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart speech ongovernment crisis response to the American Economic Associationconference in Atlanta.
10:15 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
---------------------------------------------
TUESDAY, January 31, 2009:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
---------------------------------------------
WEDNESDAY, January 31, 2009:
Weird Wally Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, January 31, 2009:
Monster Employment Index
6:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET
Tom Hoenig Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
FRIDAY, January 31, 2009:
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speaks to theMaryland Bankers Association "First Friday" Economic Outlook Forum inBaltimore.
1:35 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
STOCKS - ACTION alert -
Concerns surrounding rising interest rates brought on a round ofprofit taking on the last day of 2009 as the indices closed lower. Forthe session the Dow was off 120.46 at 10428.05. the S&P 500 was off11.32 at 1115.10, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 22.13 at 2269.15.Volume decreased from Wednesday and breadth was negative.
Friday's vicious sell-off may not have been a bear trap, as therally that preceded it was accompanied by declining volume and we didexperience a couple of key Negative Volume Reversals ™ in theprocess namely in the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite along with theRussell 2000 and the broad-based Total Stock Market Index (VTI). I ampresently erring on the side of caution and would like to see where thedust settles.
I have mixed feelings moving forward as my Annual Forecast Model forall the major markets will be not be completed until later in Januaryand my overall 'gut' feeling (previously expressed) was that we couldexperience a sharp correction during the first quarter of 2010 beforemoving dramatically higher.
With the first five days of the year historically being a roughguide to future market action and sentiment, it is also important tosit back see which way market winds are blowing. Strength in the U.S.Dollar Index and rising long-term interest rates are now suddenly beinginterpreted as market positives when common sense says just theopposite is true. There is clearly something 'rotten in Denmark'.
---------------------------------------------
European shares closed slightly higher Thursday in a shortened finaltrading session of 2009 as the region wrapped up its best trading yearin a decade. The FTSE Eurofirst 100 rose 0.2% to 3,345.58, in thintrading, with gains for miners and some banks helping tip the regionhigher. The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.02% at 3,936.33 Thursday.The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index wasn't calculated Thursday as somemarkets, including Germany and Italy, remained closed.
The year ended on a sour note as traders headed for the exits,locking in profits amid uncertainty over what lies ahead in 2010.Thursday's trade was nothing monumental, however, as the light tradingconditions gave no exclamation point to the selloff.
For December, the Dow gained 0.80%, the S&P 500 gained 1.78%,the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.81%, and the Russell 2000 gained 7.88% asthe renewed flow toward risk was evident.
Gold miners (GDX +0.74%), gold (GLD +0.36%), and silver (SLV +0.06%)all outperformed the equity indices as traders shunned both equitiesand treasuries. IEF and TLT each lost 0.48%.
The lone bright spot for the bulls was high yield bonds as HYGgained 0.16%.
Financials were spared the brunt of the selling effort as XLF lostonly 0.21%. XLF rallied up to touch its 50 day moving average beforeturning lower, as it managed to post a Positive VR on Thursday.
Materials (XLB -1.27%) were among the laggards as were the DowTransports (-1.84%) and real estate (IYR -1.94%).
Though Technology (XLK -0.86%) fell with the market on Thursday, itdid manage to hit another recovery high in the morning.
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index also managed to hit a new highThursday morning, before closing down 1.39%.
--------------------------------------------
DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
Transportations stocks were hit hard especially hard on Thursday asYRC's stock price falls and dragged down other truckers as well. TheDow Jones Transportation Average lost 76.88 or 1.84% to close at4099.63.
YRC Worldwide Inc., one of the nation's largest trucking companies,said Thursday it has cleared a critical hurdle in its effort to avoidfiling for bankruptcy protection by completing a debt-for-equityexchange with its bondholders. The company, based in Overland Park,Kan., said $470 million of its outstanding debt was tendered byholders, which it will exchange with 37 million common shares and about4.3 million convertible shares. Together that will make the stakes ofcurrent shareholders virtually worthless. Now that the debt-to-equityswap is completed, the company will be able to defer approximately $19million in lender interest and fees that had been due Thursday and willhave access to a $159.8 million credit line. The company also said itexpects to defer $20 million to $25 million in additional lenderinterest and fees per quarter during 2010. The company warned earlierthis month that it needed access to a $106 million standby credit lineand permission from its lenders to delay a $19 million payment in orderto avoid bankruptcy. YRCW declined 15.17%. Rival Con-way (CNW) lost9.82%.
---------------------------------------------
GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
Precious metals rallied Thursday morning on a weak dollar, but thengave up some of their gains as the Dollar recovered. Gold finished theday up 4.30 to 1096.40. Silver was up 0.12 to 16.87. Platinum was up 12to 1467. Palladium was up 14 to 406.
Copper rose to a 16-month high on concern that a strike may disruptsupplies from Chile. Copper futures finished the day up 0.0015 at3.3465 after hitting a new recovery high of 3.3790 Thursday morning.
Workers at Codelco's Chuquicamata copper mine, the world'ssecond-largest, plan to begin a strike on Jan. 4 after receivingapproval from Chile's Work Inspectorate, union official Miguel Lopezsaid. The country is the world's biggest copper producer.
Former Fed chief Paul Volcker, said on Oct 15th, it was difficult,but necessary, for the Fed to start draining the billions of dollars inliquidity even while unemployment remains high as the US battles out ofrecession. You have to act against what seems like common sense. If youwait, its too late, he warned. Two-months later, the Bernanke Fed isstill signaling ultra-low rates for an extended period of time.
But would a campaign of baby-step Fed rate hikes knock the goldmarket off its upward trajectory? Gold tumbled by nearly 10% from itsall-time high of $1,225 /oz in recent weeks, on ideas that Fed ratehikes might come sooner rather than later, as suggested by the yieldcurve. For chartists, the latest slump in gold is a classic removal ofspeculative froth, which normally follows a parabolic rise.
If history is a guide to the future, the gold market has been ableto climb sharply higher, alongside a rising fed funds rate. The Fedslast rate hiking cycle, - starting in June 2004, - and beginning withthe fed funds rate at 1%, wasnt able to cap golds powerful advance thruMay 2006, until the fed funds rate was lifted to 5.25-percent. Thus,for two-years, gold rose 40%, alongside a 425-basis point increase inthe fed funds rate, since the Fed was lingering far behind theinflation curve.
The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only anadditional $50 per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 permonth. Email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com to sign up today!
---------------------------------------------
BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries fell on Thursday after the better than expected joblessclaims report in the morning, but recovered most of its losses when thestock market fell into the close. The long bond future declined 16/32to 115 11/32, but traded as low as 114 16/32..
Ten-year yields jumped about 66 basis points since November, thebiggest monthly increase since April 2004. The benchmark yield is up1.60 percentage points this year, the biggest annual jump since 1999.
Yields on 2-year notes have increased 48 basis points in December,the first month up in five and the biggest increase since April 2008.But for 2009, the 2-year has been relatively stable, its yield risingonly 0.39 of a point from record lows set about a year ago.
The 10- and 30-year yields hit their highest levels since thesummer. The 10-year is at 3.843% and 30-year is 4.641%. However,short-term rates continue to hover just above 0%. The 90-day T-billyield is 0.05%. Just Wednesday, the Treasury auctioned off 36-day billsat a rate of 0%.
Will the rising interest rates hurt the economy? Especially housing?
Freddie Mac said Thursday the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averagerose from the previous week to 5.14% with an average 0.7 point for theweek ending Dec. 31. In the previous period, the average was 5.05%, andthe year-ago average was 5.10%. "Although long-term mortgage rates rosefor the fourth week in a row, they still remain affordable byhistorical standards. Based on today's median loan amount of $138,000,monthly principal and interest payments for a 30-year fixed-ratemortgage are close to one-third less than a decade ago when ratespeaked at 8.6% in May 2000. This translates into almost 50% less ininterest payments over the full 30-year term," said Frank Nothaft,Freddie Mac chief economist.
According to Bloomberg, Treasuries were the worst performing G-7debt in 2009: "Treasuries declined, poised for the worst performancethis year among Group of Seven nations as the U.S. sold record amountsof debt, including $118 billion of notes this week, to help spur arecovery from recession. U.S. securities are headed for the worst yearin at least three decades, with 10-year yields at the highest levelsince June... U.S. debt has fallen 3.5 percent since last December,according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, the biggest slidesince 1978. Treasuries fell the most this year among G-7 countries,followed by U.K. gilts, which lost 1.7 percent and Canadian debt's 1.5percent slump, Merrill indexes show. Holders of Italian debt gained themost, adding 8.1 percent."
---------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil hit $80 Thursday morning but closed with a small gain of 0.08 at79.36.
Natural gas fell 0.137 to 5.572 after inventories fell less thanexpected.
Government data showed U.S. gas inventories fell last week less thananalysts had expected. Natural gas inventories fell 124 billion cubicfeet in the week ended Dec. 25, the Energy Information Administrationreported. Analysts expected a drop of 147 billion cubic feet.
---------------------------------------------
US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The US Dollar Index fell in the morning but recovered its losses asthe equity market declined. Higher Treasury rates are also enticinginvestors to buy US denominated debt. The US Dollar Index was up 0.002to 77.916.
--------------------------------------------
ECONOMIC NEWS:
The number of people filing initial claims for state unemploymentbenefits fell 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 432,000 in the week endedDec. 26, the lowest level since summer 2008, the Labor Departmentreported Thursday. Economists expected initial claims to come in at455,000. The level of initial claims in the week ended Dec. 19 wasrevised up by 2,000 to 454,000. The four-week average of initial claimsdropped 5,500 to 460,250, the lowest since September 2008. The numberof continuing claims, which reflects people who have been collectingstate benefits for an extended period, decreased 57,000 to 4.98 millionin the week ended Dec. 19. The four-week average of continuing claimsdropped 122,000 to 5.22 million, the lowest rate since last March. Inthe week ended Dec. 12, meanwhile, the number of people claimingbenefits of any kind -- state or federal -- totaled 10.2 million, notseasonally adjusted. That was up from 10 million in the previous week.
Mortgage lender Nationwide on Thursday said British house pricesrose 0.4% in December, bringing the yearly rise to 5.9%.
---------------------------------------------
The Annual Forecast Model (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted at thewebsite - so sign up today! Remember, there is no price too high forgood information! Don't make the mistake of not subscribing. Lastyear's AFM warned in January we were entering a multi-month bearmarket! Gold-bug? Check on the AFM for Gold!
https://www.vrtrader.com/subscribe/index.asp
---------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------
TIMER DIGEST signals for Stocks, Gold and Bonds are available toPlatinum subscribers on the Home Page.
TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THEYEAR' for 2006 and was named the #2 Timer for 2007.
More kudos - Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 IntermediateMarket Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYSTSURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMINGAS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-yearperiod ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to:03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for stocks:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
'Sell' signal September 2, 2009.
'Buy' signal September 3, 2009.
'Sell' signal October 15, 2009.
'Buy' signal November 13, 2009.
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for Gold:
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Mark Leibovit is currently ranked the #2 Market Timer for the 3month period ending October 23, 2009.
---------------------------------------------
DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the fulllist only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VRList' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com. Canadian shares are listed atthe bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinumwhere you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch thepatterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on theplanet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they areproprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and areparticularly useful in defining lows or highs in stocks and stockindexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming offmarket extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRsin conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added aunique technical tool to your arsenal.
What is a Volume Reversal ™? There are several proprietarysubtleties to the Volume Reversal ™ algorithm, but essentially aVolume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction dayaccompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day toRally day accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals ™coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance inhelping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in themarketplace. The Volume Reversals ™ presented here provide you witha unique research tool that may have trading (short-term) significance,but it also may have 'trend changing' (intermediate) significance aswell. The sector Volume Reversals ™ show where big money is possiblyaffecting an entire group of stocks. The stocks listed under the grouphave posted Volume Reversals ™ along with the group as a whole. Theindividual stocks listed have posted Volume Reversals ™ on their ownand are valid plays as well.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please go ourCurrent Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or, ifyou would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please clickhere. Please note that not all symbols may be currently available:
http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_platinum/GetVRChart.asp
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VOLUME REVERSALS FOR DECEMBER 31, 2009:
---------------------------------------------
POSITIVE VRs
---------------------------------------------
XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
ATD.B ALIMENTATION COUCHE-T CL B
CG.UN CENTERRA GOLD
CRQ.UN CLAYMORE CANADIAN FUN
FNV FRANCO NEVADA CORPORA
FTS FORTIS INC
G.UN GOLDCORP
GAM.UN GAMMON GOLD INC
HBU HORIZONS BETAPRO COME
IVN.UN IVANHOE MINES
K.UN KINROSS GOLD
PAA.UN PAN AMERICAN SILVER
PJC.A JEAN COUTU GROUP INC CL A
SJR.B SHAW COMMUNICATIONS I CL B
SNC SNC-LAVALIN GROUP COM
SU.UN SUNCOR ENERGY
TRI.UN THOMPSON REUTERS
VEM VENA RESOURCES INC
XIC IUNITS COMPOSITE CDN
XMA ISHARES CDN S&P/TSX C
XRE ISHARES CDN S&P/TSX C
---------------------------------------------
U.S. STOCKS:
---------------------------------------------
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Manufacturers - Major
DAI Daimler Ag
HMC Honda Motor Co Ltd Adr
TM Toyota Motor Corp Ads
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
ARM Arvinmeritor Inc
AXL American Axle & Manufact
MGA Magna Internat Inc
TRW Trw Automotive Hldgs Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Recreational Vehicles
PII Polaris Industries Inc
THO Thor Industries Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
FSS Federal Signal Corp
BANKING Money Center Banks
BAC Bank Of America Corp
BMO Bank Of Montreal
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
LNBB Lnb Bancorp
MCBC Macatawa Bank Corp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
BTFG Banctrust Financial Group Inc
CADE Cadence Financial Corp
CTBI Community Trust Bncp Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
ABBC Abington Community Bancorp Inc
BOFI BofI Holding Inc
CAFI Camco Financial Corp
CFBK Central Federal Corporation
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Based Systems
TLVT Telvent Git Sa Ord
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
APKT Acme Packet Inc
ELX Emulex Corp
IGOI Mobility Electronics
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Healthcare Information Service
ECLP Eclipsys Corporation
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
HDY HyperDynamics Corp
RDWR Radware Ltd
SYNT Syntel Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Multimedia & Graphics Software
TDSC 3d Systems Corp
THQI Thq Inc
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
FO Fortune Brands Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
LYTS Lsi Industries Inc
OPMR Optimal Group Inc Cl 'a'
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
SNE Sony Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Home Furnishings & Fixtures
NTZ Natuzzi S.p.a.
STLY Stanley Furniture Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Photographic Equipment & Suppl
CHYR Chyron Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Recreational Goods
FOSL Fossil Inc
JADE Lj Internat Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
NLS Nautilus Group Inc (the)
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
FNET FortuNet
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Consumer Services
KDE 4kids Entertainment Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Education & Training Services
CECO Career Education Corp
CEDU Chinaedu Corp
COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Personal Services
HI Hillenbrand` Inc.
WOOF Vca Antech
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Rental & Leasing Services
WLFC Willis Lease Finance Cp
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Security & Protection Services
CFL Brink's Home Security
GEO Geo Group (The)
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
CCRN Cross Country Healthcare
CITP Comsys It Partners Inc
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
SPPI Spectrum Pharm Inc
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
ARNA Arena Pharmaceuticals
BMRN Biomarin Pharmaceuticals
KG King Pharmaceuticals Inc
PGNX Progenics Pharm Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
AFFX Affymetrix Inc
CALP Caliper Life Sciences Inc
CAMT Camtek Ltd
CPHD Cepheid
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
CY Cypress Semiconductor Cp
STM Stmicroelectronics Nv
WEDC White Electronic Designs
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
HITT Hittite Microwave Corp
LAVA Magma Design Automation Inc
WFR Memc Electronic Material
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Memory Chips
ATML Atmel Corp
RMTR Ramtron Internat Corp
SIMG Silicon Image Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc
MEMS Memsic Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
AMAT Applied Materials Inc
ASMI Asm Internat N.V.
ASX Advanced Semicondctr Ads
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
CEO Cnooc Ltd Adr
ECA Encana Corporation
HUSA Houston American Energy Corp
ENERGY Major Integrated Oil & Gas
COP Conocophillips
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
ENY EnerNorth Industries Inc
PDC Pioneer Drilling Co
PKD Parker Drilling Co
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
DPM DCP Midstream Partners LP
ENB Enbridge Inc
EP El Paso Corp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
EPE Enterprise Group Holdings LP
IMO Imperial Oil Ltd
IOC Interoil Corporation
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
AMG Affiliated Managers Grp
BKF Bkf Capital Group
DUF Duff & Phelps Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
ADRA BLDRS Asia 50 ADR Index Fund E
BBK Blackrock Municipal Bond Trust
BCL Blackrock California Municipal
BFO Blackrock Fl Muni 2020
BSE Blackrock Ny Ins Muni Inc Trus
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ADRD BLDRS Developed Markets 100 AD
ADRU BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index Fun
BIK SPDR S&P BRIC 40 ETF
BLU Blue Chip Value Fund Inc
CET Central Securities Corp
DBS PowerShares DB Silver Fund
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
AEA Advance America
AXP American Express Co
COF Capital One Financial Cp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
LAB Labranche & Co Inc
LMI Legg Mason Corp Unit
OPY Oppenheimer Hldgs Inc
RJF Raymond James Financial
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Brewers
FMX Fomento Economico Mex
TAP Molson Coors Brewing Co
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
WBD Wimm Bill Dann Foods Ojsc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
STZ Constellation Brands Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Farm Products
GRO Agria Corp
SEED Origin Agritech Ltd
FOOD & BEVERAGE Food - Major Diversified
ADM Archer Daniels Midland
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
SEB Seaboard Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
JVA Coffee Holding Co Inc
OFI Overhill Farms Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ALC Assisted Living Concepts Inc.
BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
BABY Natus Medical
BFRM Bioform Medical Inc
CHIO China Insonline Corp
INSURANCE Surety & Title Insurance
Y Alleghany Corp
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
KNOT The Knot Inc
LOOK Looksmart Ltd
INTERNET Internet Service Providers
CTCH Commtouch Software Ltd
DGI Digital Globe Inc.
GSB Globalscape Inc
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
DRIV Digital River Inc
LQDT Liquidity Services
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
ALAN Alanco Technologies
ALY Allis-Chalmers Energy Inc
MANUFACTURING Farm & Construction Machinery
ASTE Astec Industries
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
FELE Franklin Electric Co Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Equipment & Compone
MAS Masco Corp
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
MKTAY Makita Corp Spons Adr
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Residential Construction
AVTR Avatar Holdings Inc
MEDIA Advertising Services
IPG Interpublic Gr Of Cos
MEDIA CATV Systems
L Liberty Media Corp
LBTYA Liberty Global Inc Class A
METALS & MINING Aluminum
AA Alcoa Inc
METALS & MINING Gold
ABX Barrick Gold Corp
CDY Cardero Resource Corp
GRS Gammon Lake Resources
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
GMO Idaho General Mines Inc
MFN Minefinders Corp
SWC Stillwater Mining Co
METALS & MINING Silver
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp
MVG Mag Silver Corp
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
SCHN Schnitzer Steel Indust
SHLO Shiloh Industries Inc
SUTR Sutor Technology Group
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
ARL American Realty Invest
CTO Consolidated-Tomoka Land
DFT DuPont Fabros Technology
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
KRC Kilroy Realty Corp
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties
PPS Post Properties Inc
UBA Urstadt Biddle Properties
REAL ESTATE REIT - Retail
AKR Acadia Realty Trust
MAC Macerich Co
REG Regency Centers Corp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
CHRS Charming Shoppes Inc
PLCE Children's Place Rtl Str
SPECIALTY RETAIL Auto Dealerships
KMX Carmax Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
SBH Sally Beauty Holdings Inc.
SGU Star Gas Partners Lp Sbi
TITN Titan Machinery Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
DRJ Dreams Inc
SPCHB Sport Chalet Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Toy & Hobby Stores
BBW Build-a-bear Workshop
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ADTN Adtran Inc
EAG Eagle Broadband Inc
EFJI Efj Inc
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
AMR Amr Corporation
TRANSPORTATION Railroads
CNI Canadian Natl Railway
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
ALGT Allegiant Travel Co
LUV Southwest Airlines Co
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
ACLI American Commercial Lines Inc
CKH Seacor Holdings Inc
FREE FreeSeas Inc
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
AEY Addvantage Tech Group
WHOLESALE Food Wholesale
SVU Supervalu Inc
UNFI United Natural Foods Inc
WHOLESALE Industrial Equipment Wholesale
CFK Ce Franklin Ltd
KHD Khd Humboldt Wedag Intl Ltd
TTES T-3 Energy Services Inc
WHOLESALE Wholesale
DFS Department 56 Inc
HWKN Hawkins Chemical Inc
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NEGATIVE VRs
---------------------------------------------
XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
CIE.UN CLAYMORE INTL FUNDAMENTALS
DAY.UN DAYLIGHT RESOURCES TR
GTE.UN GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
HGD.UN HORIZONS BETAPRO GLB TU-A
HNU HORIZONS NAT GAS BULL PLUS
PVE.UN PROVIDENT ENERGY TRUS
TWF.UN TIMBERWEST FOREST COR
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U.S. STOCKS:
---------------------------------------------
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
ALV Autoliv Inc
STRT Strattec Security Cp
WAB Wabtec
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
WNC Wabash National Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
EUBK Eurobancshares Inc
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
BNCN BNC Bancorp NC
CBKN Capital Bank Corp Rlghnc
FMAR First Mariner Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
CSNT Crescent Banking Company
FCFL First Community Bank Corp
FPBI FPB Bancorp Inc
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
IFF Internat Flavors & Frag
SXT Sensient Technologies Cp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
IN Intermec Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Diversified Computer Systems
JAVA Sun Microsystems Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
ADBE Adobe Systems Inc
BLSW Bridgeline Software
GUID Guidance Software Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information & Delivery Service
DNB Dun & Bradstreet Corp
GNET Global Traffic Network Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
SXE Stanley Inc
TEAM Techteam Global Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
CHRD Chordiant Software Inc
MANH Manhattan Associates Inc
NATI National Instruments Cp
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
TFX Teleflex Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
DBD Diebold Inc
VIRC Virco Manufacturing Cp
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
DTSI DTS Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Housewares & Accessories
LANC Lancaster Colony Corp
LCUT Lifetime Brands Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
CYB Cybex Internat
HED Head Nv
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
RADA Radica Games Ltd
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
CCK Crown Holdings Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Paper & Paper Products
AVY Avery Dennison Corp
BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc
DRUGS Drug Related Products
PBH Prestige Brands Holdings
ELECTRONICS Diversified Electronics
MEI Methode Electronics Cl A
ELECTRONICS Printed Circuit Boards
JBL Jabil Circuit Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
CVI Lehman Abs Corp Sr
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
ACTL Actel Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
IMOS Chipmos Technologies Bermuda
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
CPE Callon Petroleum Co
ISRL Isramco Inc
TMR Meridian Resource Corp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
DNE Dune Energy Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
WRES Warren Resources Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
ASH Ashland Inc
WNR Western Refining Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
AINV Apollo Investment Corp
BCV Bancroft Convertible Fd
HPS John Hancock Pref Incm Fd Iii
IEI iShares Lehman 3-7 Year Treasu
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
AGG Aggregate Bond
BLV Vanguard Long Term Bond ETF
DZZ DB Gold Double Short ETN
EEV Ultrashort Msci Emerg Mrkt
EWN iShares MSCI Netherlands Index
EXT WisdomTree Total Earnings Fd
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
DEB WisdomTree Europe Total Divide
EEA European Equity Fund Inc
ISL First Israel Fund Inc
TEI Templeton Emerg Mkts Incm Del
USY WisdomTree U.S. Current Income
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
NEWS Newstar Financial Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
ICH Investors Capital Holdings Ltd
SMCG Millennium India Acq Co Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
ISM SLM Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
ITG Investment Technology
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
HANS Hansen Natural Corp
KO Coca-Cola Co
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
AGII Argonaut Group Inc
HGIC Harleysville Group Inc
MKL Markel Corp
LEISURE Gaming Activities
PENN Penn National Gaming Inc
LEISURE Restaurants
BKC Burger King Holdings Inc
BNHN Benihana Inc
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
IIN IntriCon Corp
MNTX Manitex International` Inc. Co
MX Metso Corp
PRST Presstek Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
GB Greatbatch Inc
WGOV Woodward Governor Co
MANUFACTURING Industrial Equipment & Compone
[bleeep] [bleeep] Inc
B Barnes Group Inc
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
RBC Regal-Beloit Corp
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
RT Ryerson Tull Inc
MANUFACTURING Pollution & Treatment Controls
MFRI Mfri Inc
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
PFIN P & F Industries Cl A
MANUFACTURING Textile Manufacturing
MHK Mohawk Industries Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
DHR Danaher Corp
RPM Rpm International
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
BXG Bluegreen Corp
CXW Corrections Corp Of Amer
NEN New England Realty Assoc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
FAC First Acceptance Corp
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
CPV Correctional Props Trust
RETAIL Auto Parts Stores
ORLY O'reilly Automotive Inc
RETAIL Department Stores
BONT Bon-Ton Stores Inc
RETAIL Drug Stores
PSMT Pricesmart Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Music & Video Stores
TWMC Trans World Entertain Cp
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ANTP Phazar Corp
DITC Ditech Communications Cp
IKAN Ikanos Communications
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Long Distance Carriers
T At&T Corp
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Foreign
MICC Millicom Intl Cellular Sa
SURW Sure West Communications
TCL Tata Communication Ltd
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
EXPD Expeditors Int Wash Inc
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
BAB British Airways Plc Adr
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
ALEX Alexander & Baldwin Inc
ULTR Ultrapetrol Ltd
UTILITIES Gas Utilities
ATO Atmos Energy Corp
NWN Northwest Natural Gas Co
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
ISIG Insignia Systems Inc
RELL Richardson Electrns Ltd
WHOLESALE Medical Equipment Wholesale
HSIC Henry Schein Inc
---------------------------------------------
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