www.toddmarketforecast.com
Todd Market Forecast
Thursday Jan 7, 2010
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW + 33 on 600 net advances
NASDAQ COMP - 1 on 300 net advances
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
The stock market was down in the early going on two items. First a credit tightening in China reminded investors that a general world wide tightening is always a possibility. Second, the U.S. dollar rebounded rather sharply.
But several pieces of good news helped buoy things a bit. Same store sales were better than expected. Then G.E. and Bank of America were upgraded and this helped the financials. Finally, jobless claims were a bit less than expected.
The latter seemed to make investors feel that the dreaded non farm payrolls to be released on Friday morning would be benign. We’ll just have to see.
We continue to make pattern of ascending highs and ascending lows on the major indices, but we are a bit concerned that the high techs are waning a bit. The XLK, which is a high tech ETF has been down three days in a row. This could be a harbinger. If it is, we should see in a couple of days.
Dollar strength pushed down gold, silver, copper and crude oil. Bonds were slightly higher.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Remain that way on Friday.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Initial jobless claims came in at 434,000, slightly less than the consensus 439,000. On Friday at 8:30 EST, we get the most market moving of all economic releases, the non farm payroll number.
OTHER MARKETS
We’re on a sell for bonds as of Dec. 21.
We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the Euro as of January 4.
We’re on a buy for gold as of January 4.
We’re on a buy for silver as of Dec. 16.
We’re on a buy for Copper as of Dec. 16.
We’re on a buy for crude oil as of December 23.
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.
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TODD MARKET FORECAST
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