(Weekend ingerletter.com excerpt; with technical analysis primarily via video only.)
Gene Inger's Daily Briefing . . . for Monday June 7, 2010:
Good weekend!
Instability is growing . . . in many ways; (and not just because of the Friday drop we anticipated nor what comes next). Nor just Employment Report’s realities (members know we were so concerned about those either being unrealistic or totally discounted in-advance, that we moved to the ‘short-side’ again on Thursday’s rally), perfectly in-anticipation of either a plunge or on-news sale as would develop per strategies (that required making a ‘bet’ ahead of Friday so as the jobs data disappointed there would not be time to position oneself on Friday); nor just the slap-in-the-face visit denial by Red China to our Defense Secretary Gates (lost in all the other news) nor the military buildup; and not the conflicting Fed comments from Bernanke about slow demands for ‘small business’ credit, or the Fed’s Mr. Hoenig warning that statements, if not rates, must be modified to suggest ‘emergency’ rate measures are so overextended either. And not even a curiosity about the lower Treasury issuance level next week (financial disaster if insufficient funds are raised?).
Rather it is still- widening ‘spreads’ in Europe; that have spread not only as we’d warned long ago to Eastern Europe (in this case Hungary, largely funded by Western banks that aren’t ‘yet’ mentioned, including the French); but still-widening spreads in Belgium, as well as Italy and Spain, plus a degree of worry about the U.K. (not to mention the U.S. sort of waiting in the wings). And yes, over two months ago we warned about all the risk in the former-captive-nation countries of Eastern Europe, which were funded in their post-communist rebuilding efforts by a noble effort primarily by Europeans.
A few other tidbits: a) the ‘battle group’ USS George Washington is being prepared to immediately depart Japan for waters off the Korean peninsula, in-line with our call for multiple battle group forces to be dispatched to various parts of the Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific theatres of conflict);
the G20 group divided in meetings in South Korea (while a potentially risky war zone, perhaps wise to group world leaders there in a show of solidarity within range of the world’s largest assembled batteries of artillery as far as we know); and, c) new ‘trading limits or collars’ get implemented this coming week (delayed by one week as officials ponder what happens if hundreds or more stocks are halted nearly simultaneously without halting the overall market due to computer-directed declines) and when they are widely triggered, that will prove the volatility in-front of, and in the wake of them coming off, as I previously speculated on to ingerletter.com members, with good ideas of what that will actually result in doing). I hasten to add that the debt concerns, and miserable housing (some reports say that sales have collapsed back to early 2009 levels, especially in higher-end housing that hasn’t been impacted much by foreclosures), as validate our earlier forecasts (more).
More directly to the markets: don’t forget our warning that a previously over-analyzed (forgotten?) decline and then ‘Flash Crash’ followed a March-April distribution ‘dome’ warning that in our view ‘crash conditions’ would likely prevail in May; and that once we got those the odds favored snapbacks being valiantly attempted by the ‘controlled arbitrage’ trader types (more specificity redacted) before we ‘cave’ to lower levels, as it won’t be ‘just’ because of (redacted .. or our forecast Deflation, as sure continues).
I thought (to simplify matters) that my forecast May plunge was a warning shot across the bow, and perhaps sufficient that orthodox time parameters for ensuing phases of declining market activity might be denied or minimized by virtue of overwhelming and serious considerations. This Generation generally is unfamiliar with what precedes as well as characterizes a plunge; as even our forecast 2000 crash or ‘epic debacle’ call for 2007-’08 saw investors fail to factor-in declining wage & salary growth; worsening economic conditions (and I am fairly sure about the reasons why; because this is not a normal recovery and remains the ‘controlled Depression’ we have discussed during the post-‘epic debacle’ initiation); or if push comes to shove (call it ‘loss of control’ if you like), something else that follows (reserved) and hastened conflict in another era.
I’m saddened to see how poorly the West has responded to excesses for a long time; and basically suspect that this isn’t an issue of a ‘blame game’ with current leaders in a sense that the debt issues and impossibilities of ‘onerous’ debt service and entirely impossible defined pension benefits issues ahead, is not easily solvable by anyone. I do believe there were some irresponsible and inappropriate uses of taxpayer funds (it is a separate issue as to whether citizens were repaid). But what’s happened might just be what I’ve said before: to squander the funds while there was time to intervene in intelligent ways that enhanced initiative, innovation, and small business rather than ‘make-work’ projects which give an illusion of meaningful hires, but do little more. At the end of the day, monies may be repaid; but the Nation missed a genuine recovery.
(If you don’t believe that consider that 20% of ALL jobs in the U.S. are government at this point; and that the ‘real’ unemployment rate is also 20%; so that’s 40% of citizens either out of work or working for government, which aside the Feds, are trimming jobs not increasing them. Further, one survey suggests that 40% of all wage-earners prior to our forecast ‘debacle’ making under $50,000 annually then, are unemployed now. That is part of the polarization and destruction of the middle class I have addressed. The middle class was what distinguished opportunity in the U.S.A.; quite obviously.)
As it relates to the market, and the over-concentration of trading (and evacuation of hedgers if history repeats as it could), I warned all week ‘prior’ to Friday, this means the risk of a huge plunge was rising, not ebbing. To substantiate that this risk wasn’t merely ‘opinion’ or a look at charts (as unnerving as they should be to the casual observer) merely reflect on my repeated as well as concerned charts and comments regarding Money Supply contractions (to wit liquidity is not as broadly represented or assumed by market participants); particularly (redacted; if you want to know how this differs from ‘official’ Fed data; then join us); plus continuing ‘toxic debt’ holdings. Let’s not even shock you by explaining leverage in supposedly conservative Europe vs the U.S. (most Americans don’t even realize what leveraged trading goes-on in the U.S.).
I realize many analysts say they do not understand why business or markets remain poorly behaving; perhaps they should revisit their underlying premises on a recovery, and in a sense contemplate what may happen in-absence of hedgers or specialists in this era, which no longer ‘must’ absorb any securities to maintain an orderly market. I am not trying to foster a panic; but to note that most ‘reforms’ are just bandages, and for all practical purposes have had little or no effect on underlying maintenance of a real stability; while the public is being told that these new measures are adequate (in a pinch we’ll see; low trading costs contributed to rapid-fire trading, and nothing in the revised ‘rules’ seems to have addressed that adequately for now…think about this).
Let me see if I can impress upon investors the risk in yet another way: remember the failed (very specific comparison reserved for members who will relate to implications); but who will support matters under the present structure, when ‘everybody’ says sell, but few if any actually ‘have to’ buy anything, as in the old days? ‘Comeback parties’ ended some time back as we had outlined (parts extended in an effort to perpetuate the market’s ruse; after we properly had called for 50-100% gains in financials and other issues; but that was 15 month ago; certainly not during this Spring’s warnings here; and our ‘May’ crash alert, to be followed by a rebound, and then the risk of something even nastier as feasible). (To those who think I was too bearish; well let me point out that I told members I did not assume short-sale positions on Indexes or stocks or get long Volatility during all those months; but announced doing it in April of 2010, in-anticipation of ‘crash conditions’ newly probable; commencing in May 2010.)
It seems to me that investor complacency in the face of this was totally superficial, if they think that because a fair number of pros recognize the vulnerability (even as the Euro drops to a lower low, and the Dollar firms as forecast here all year long), that’s a good indication to play the opposite way. Sure I often disdain (redacted as pertinent it seems to later June-July action), so that’s not irrelevant as we structured strategies.
The bottom line: things remain tenuous at best, and potentially fairly dire at worst; in a sense. That doesn’t mean the U.S. isn’t more resilient than some areas of course; but it does mean that it’s the height of arrogance to see ourselves insulated at all with this situation (few discuss U.S. investments intertwined with certain paper in the EU); much less to recognize that large multinationals remain overpriced given these risks. Only a fool will simply look at ‘lower’ PE’s as implying attractiveness. One need look at the 1970’s decline to see how PE’s dropped on essential (food and consumer type stocks) areas, but then dropped more as prices slid considerably further over time; so anyone who interpreted valuation on that basis alone was thoroughly hung-out to dry.
There are other issues too; not the least of which include muni bond default risk later this year and next; and the ‘expectation’ by some that the Federal Government will be at the beck-and-call of state and county governments to ‘bail-out’ such issues, just as they did the motors and bankers (presumptions which aren’t necessarily borne-out by history; when you look at defaults that have occurred in the past, like Alabama and in California). This remains a global and domestic minefield in so many ways. One may be tempted to say that the May decline we looked for discounted ‘all risks’, but we’re unable to state that, based on realistic technical and fundamental analysis of all this.
(Please refer to the ‘dome’ chart pattern we outlined in March and April which barely on a monthly chart has corrected anything. Those who keeping saying ‘buy’ are nuts; when they fail to realize even Friday was NOT a capitulation; just absence of bids.)
Finally, the Oil market is doing a lot (risk premium and irrespective of demand; while it is obvious that the Gulf disaster and policy revisions are not helping the matter at all of course) to sustain superficial big-cap appearances (‘dead sea’ and implications are discussed periodically). I cannot reflect much on personal observations exchanged at dinner in Bethesda this week with (redacted) at the Pentagon; aside to say previous reports in this site, as well as other views of ‘peak oil’ are not refuted by estimations of vanished surpluses in not-too-far-out years, as well as my prior remarks about overestimations of Saudi reserve estimates, which is a part of how they leverage their quotas within OPEC. I realize oil tends to influence the Oil Index and higher big-cap prices; but at the same time this can be offset by overwhelming debt or other issues.
Personal note: my one-week trip to Washington DC ended Friday with me on a flight; thus this is the market overview and weekend report combined for Monday. No action was needed at all Friday, as Thursday’s guidance was to ‘position’ new shorts prior.
A few words summarizing key points of the week just past; and then tonight’s video:
Significant financial system strains . . . are generally overlooked; simply because longs were able to take a (not unexpected) Tuesday turnaround, and ‘jam it’ through the roof, even if it proves to be little more than a one-day wonder. Assuming a new (post-data) ‘smash’ however, consider variables (allowing pre-Friday short positions).
Finally (large redacted portions in fairness to our members), there are liquidity issues not only here (reserved as noted), but abroad, and that includes China. The building strains are mostly ignored, at least by those who believe there is a controlled effort to ‘hold the line’ (the reference to where they mounted a critical rally effort from must beneath), not to even consider what happens if they don’t get the ‘jobs’ numbers they want later this week which will be sold ‘either way’. (This portion written Wednesday.)
(Macro) action . . concludes the ‘controlled Depression’ essentially continues. This is a minefield to navigate, and there is new economic slowing forthcoming, which really remains a negative for the financial system here, and in many cases abroad as well. That’s also a contributor to enemies of freedom taking chances by ‘probing’ Western defenses if you think about it (we were likely the only market analysts to note how in obscurity Islamic terrorists starting grouping in South America last year; which now is a bit more evident to any who look). Americans focused on increasing consumption, or again trimming savings, are potentially taking greater risks than might appear at ‘face value’ to them. (Few realize the true accounting irregularities than mask reality.)
Such obviously incongruities and divergences reflect ongoing selling into strength, as well as likely reveal that professional traders and money managers are NOT focused, as are the financial press, on such comparatively insignificant items (to the market) in one example; the Employment report late this week (written last Monday). It’s already discounted as being a bit better; but even if it exceeded the wildest bullish estimates (which nothing else going on suggests it would), it won’t matter as will regard trying to get ahead of our debt-encumbered intractable mess. With now about 32 states and a number of large municipalities ‘at risk’ currently, and with limited Federal funds these days likely to be forthcoming (the Senate didn’t even deal with extending benefits for the unemployed again before taking a ‘week off’), perhaps these are issues that may be worthy of further market attention, as well as the U.S. holdings of foreign debt that has been so ‘glossed-over’ as if Europe’s woes weren’t relevant to happenings here.
There were underreported stories today (June 1); including the Brazilian Auction that partially was borderline a ‘bust’, and the rumors about Israeli satellite photos showing missile delivery to Hezbollah terrorists from Syria, across their border with Lebanon. This is relevant to concerns about tensions building as we move into the Summer this year; nor the (very logical with concern about whether deterrence means much to the radicals in Tehran) deployment of a trio of Israeli (German-built) Dolphin class diesel submarines purportedly with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles intended to be logically in the present unprovoked threat to Israel by Iran (at least one at all times) permanently stationed in waters near Iran proper (this in a deterrent sense would seek to nullify any hope of Iran of knocking-out the Israeli air bases or missile defense installations in a ‘first strike’ without inviting Iran’s own destruction. However again whether it is of meaning to those who want to turn back history 700 years is hard to compute).
The deteriorating ‘state’ of North Korea is also an extraordinary wild card to cope with now as dispatch (forthcoming deployment) of multiple aircraft carrier battle groups to the Western Pacific and/or Indian Ocean; placing potent forces in a neighborhood of a few potentially perilous situations. I noted as the USS Truman sailed from Norfolk, they dispatched several additional guided missile AEGIS-class warships so as to create ‘reinforced’ battle groups. That is unusual, or could be to help ensure intercept by Standard 3 missiles of any rogue missile launch from North Korea or even Iran.
With that said, just keep in mind there are a number of market-impacting or potential issues of the sort, that we have to keep an eye on; and that the odds of problems in the near future exceed those of resolutions and a peaceful world. Unfortunately that’s what makes for a hot summertime; but a volatile market which we look forward to lots of great trades; not because we want to see these miserable issues (including debt or currency matters, or even a larger forthcoming volcanic eruption), but because these tend to cause more than seasonal concerns with reflect to the market’s prospects.
Back to America and Europe: nothing has changed with respect to commercial and a slew of other bond holdings; except over-confidence that there will be no defaults or other issues (based on fantasy hope and equally misleading financial auditing) and (redacted portion); at the same time everyone would prefer than excesses could be seamlessly unwound; however that is not feasible even with fraudulent accounting.
It is becoming clear that investors are starting to realize that America cannot be just an ‘island of tranquility’ in this global debt unwinding dynamic; plus we’re not tranquil. The China story rekindles concerns (for members only). This takes us back to those ‘solvency’ issues; and that has similar ultimate solutions we’ve contended for most of these 3 years of ‘epic debacle’ expectations. And yes the Dollar has rallied (as I’d forecast this entire year), while Oil (redacted continuing projection).
This is a restructuring of the world to a more sensible and sustainable level, and just in that respect, there is little logic to the arguments for higher financial earnings or a strong second half. When you combine higher taxation, one wonders whether, even in the best of intentions, Government is not only prolonging the misery, but simply in a ‘spin mode’ of trying to galvanize the nearly-impossible needle threading not for at least some recovery (we’ve always said that); but of a resolution of the debt morass.
This de-risking relates more to capital markets, and an inability to insure risk for big money managers; not average investors. That’s a big issue. If everybody knows this of course we have a situation where markets cannot yet stabilize for very long a time, and that’s why all rallies were forecast to be ‘false or abortive’, as overall downtrends remain intact. To hear guys talk about what sectors to look for buys rather than sales in on rallies), just reinforces overall downside prospects and suggests a considerable portion of the securities industry still doesn’t get it (or is defending the holdings they or their clientele hold); talking their book accordingly (or so it often appears).
Debt impairment . . . is the concern; not earnings and recovery optimism as prevails, at least among the delusions of those who see a sustainable economic recovery with no contractions to test the mettle of the turnaround efforts domestically or worldwide.
I have called this a controlled Depression since forecasting it over three years ago; that the Fed and Treasury would facilitate systemic stabilization, but not much more. I regret to inform you that we were and continue correct. Now that the market broke as forecast in May, watch and see this rebound end, as these guys ‘flip-flop’ in a ‘panic’.
Conclusion: stabilization efforts notwithstanding; overall recovery and deleveraging conditions will prevail (not may prevail) through this year and doubtless into next year as well. Intervening market rallies do occur (some fairly wild), but of limited duration, at this point. If other developments unfold that could change prospects we’ll evaluate.
Bottom line: continuing characteristics; include (consolidated) the following bullet points:
· Financial & bank-capital impairment -even now- remain the crux of ongoing economic crises.
Further bullet points provided members; please visit ingerletter.com site for details.
MarketCast (intraday analysis & embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks forecast substantive failures by markets; particularly as 2010 evolves (whether just as a correction of a worse case remains to be assessed). Remember back in early 2007 we denied the 'liquidity' momentum as a canard; believing housing only the first asset bubble to deflate. We then outlined structured investment vehicle failures; banking issues, the confluence of asset deflations, and more; continuing with interruptions per projecting long ago: 'a perfect storm'. New set of storm clouds gathered and bursting.
As the debt bubbles continue to deflate, alternating tradable moves continue from a trading perspective. Against that backdrop retaining a macro (adjusted) Sept. S&P 1600 +/- short irrespective of interim oscillations. Technical analysis via video follows.
Daily Briefing Technical-Corner MarketCast Videos
Bits & Bytes . . . provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers primary technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech, or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P, plus ideas ingerletter.com thinks might merit further reflection. (Individual stock comments generally are provided in video overviews only; occasionally I'll have some thoughts here; however increasingly most all analysis is via video, as it should be.)
In summary . . events continue reminding us of risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks on free peoples, by elements including organized terrorist forces in various countries and the world’s oceans. Addressing terror threats continues, while domestic and EU issues absorb us amidst little focus on U.S. economic stabilization.
Over 3 years ago I commenced projecting an 'accident waiting to happen'; affirmed historically after long-duration periods of free money (Gilded Age mentality). Now a market finished struggling with over-extended rebounds as our economy restructures. As 2010 evolves you’ll see more of why I warned in March and April about a ‘crash in May’ and more. (Technical ‘what’s next’ projections are via the accompanying video.)
Though enormous efforts have avoided systemic disaster on the banking front; there is no equivalent rescue of the overall economy besides perception; nor restoration of engines for sustainable growth. People are adjusting to lower expectations; which will never be a favored approach to American life. As we have major adjustments to work through; you might also keep an eye-out for something more dramatic before political efforts to obfuscate proper auditing are compelled by the FASB. That reason warned about chasing rallies; not to mention major ‘commercial’ adjustments as are ongoing. And as I’ve said; fairly visible new storm clouds were clustering (no words minced to our members as to where this is going, and on what approximate timetable this year).
Enjoy the weekend!
<h2 style="">Gene</h2>
Gene Inger,
Publisher
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