www.toddmarketforecast.com
Todd Market Forecast for Tuesday June 15, 2010
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW + 214 on 2150 net advances
NASDAQ COMP + 62 on 1500 net advances
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
The major indices broke above the previous highs today (right hand arrow) and also above the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500. We don’t pay much attention to the 200 day moving average, but many technicians do and this feat may bring in additional buying, at least for the very short term.
We think the fact that the S&P 500 broke above previous highs is a much more important achievement and it puts us back in the short term bullish camp. We wish we could say it was on a big increase in volume, but we can’t. Volume was quite anemic, but we’ve seen the market rally for six weeks on low volume so we’ll take it.
A successful debt offering by Spain and Ireland caused the euro to rally and the resulting dollar weakness helped our stock market move higher.
Also helping was a comment by Best Buy that they saw a solid increase in the sales of notebook computers. This is a high profit item for technology firms.
Of course, we’ve been telling you that the technicals, especially the sentiment gauges were predicting a move higher. It just took a while to develop.
The dollar was solidly lower and this helped produce rallies in gold, silver, copper and crude oil. Bonds were down. ]
BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders bought the E-mini at 1093.50 and sold at 1109.25 for a gain of 15.75. They bought the SSO at 36.71 and sold at 37.78 for a gain of 1.08. Stay in cash on Wednesday.
The VIX changed by a minus 9.48%, meaning we barely missed a short term sell by this indicator. (See the daily comments for June 4 for a more detailed explanation.) We round off to the nearest full integer so we will represent this as minus 9 in today’s report.
System 7 traders should stay in cash for now.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The Empire State Mfg. Index came in at 19.57, lower than the expected 21.0. The Housing Market Index was 17, less than last month’s 22. On Wednesday we get the PPI, housing starts, industrial production and oil inventories.
OTHER MARKETS
We’re on a buy for bonds as of May 4.
We’re moving back to a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of today June 15.
We’re on a buy for gold as of April 7.
We’re on a buy for silver as of April 1.
We’re on a sell for copper as of April 27.
We’re on a buy for crude oil as of May 26.
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.
RANKED # 1 BY TIMER DIGEST
Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.
Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. We were ranked ranked # 1 for the past ten years at the end of 2003, 2004 and 2005. At the end of 2006 we slipped to #3 and at the end of 2007, we were ranked # 5.
TODD MARKET FORECAST
P.O. Box 4131
Crestline, CA 92325-4131
www.toddmarketforecast.com
e mail – toddmarketforecast@charter.net
phone 909 338 - 8354
