Gene Inger's Daily Briefing . . . for Tuesday July 6, 2010:
Happy Independence Day!
Cascading declines . . . might not be what investors want to think of into a holiday. It gave me no pleasure (aside being successfully profitable and helping protect you as I thought ‘crash risks’ were returning in May as projected in April) calling for the decline then, or what I suspect still lies ahead, interrupted as forecast with an erratic but very mediocre, effort at seasonal stabilization at this particular time. Does that mean we’re disinclined to see any chance that the recent lows were sustainable? For that merely contemplate what we’ve said all year about a ‘double dip’ and weak second half of a difficult 2010; not to mention real discussions about ‘realistic multiples’ in this climate.
All we need to address this holiday weekend is (redacted), which essentially nails this ongoing pattern. Those who are confident we’ll be capitulating Tuesday and then the decline is over are deluding themselves (due to the factors outlined to our members).
The Bank of China raised 8 billion dollars on Friday; and that tends to affirm that their liquidity needs (surprising isn’t it) are far more than a rumor (2nd time in over a week). The contrarian rule is nonsense here; again as if just because a ship is sinking, that’s not to say you should disregard advice to put on a lifejacket, as if the ship won’t sink. I think this might be the spot to remind everyone that in a bull market bulls are right; in a bear market the bears are right (in the middle of a trend not necessarily extreme turning points). A: this is not a bull market. B: this is not an extreme turning point yet.
This week the Baltic Dry was smacked-down once again; firming affirmation of global slowing. The bulls can’t have it both ways (arguing that Chinese strength would save the world, which was nonsense in the first place; and then saying we’d be bullish if in fact they declined; a spin to argue buying stocks irrespective of the ‘facts’) .. and just contemplate what I’ve said about rising employment and even earnings, while market valuations are dropped (lower multiples) because the forward growth rate has slowed significantly. That was my illustration of so-called consumer staples in the 1970’s, as after the shocks the market deteriorated even though key stocks had better results. In this case it’s worse, as they’ll likely trim expectations for Q3 and Q4 as I said all year, and in the course of that after-the-fact drops of S&P earnings will be forthcoming too.
Daily action . . . notes all the foregoing presumes no geopolitical risks (redacted), as that also excludes our suspicion over a month ago that the Gulf Oil disaster could be to modern times, what the ‘Dustbowl’ was to an era in the 1930’s. If so, the analysts on the two coasts still generally do not grasp the overall impact on this nation that is struggling to recover, and at minimum how it will slow this recovery considerably. If anything, we’d be thrilled to hear the President reverse his stance (note that even Bill Clinton did that when he realized the economic situation, as he moved swiftly toward centrist governance putting our fiscal house in reasonable order which is not what is being done here, though everybody seems to now understand the need); and join the German and English approaches to drastically cutting the deficit (though we reflected on the implications of following any IMF guidelines). If not it will occur anyway but in a less orchestrated and more dangerous societal way.
That’s why it’s often best to ‘face the music before the music faces you’. The last time I wrote that line I believe was in 2005, when I thought you had a little time to exit any and all real estate, especially in markets that had gone parabolic, before a collapse of housing. Then we thought you had about a year for stocks to sustain before they had a similar risk. That led to our warning in February of 2007 for a ‘liquidity / credit crisis’ and in May of 2007 (when we grasped the securitized toxic derivatives issue well in advance); we escalated the forecast to ‘epic debacle’ coming status. It certainly was; and the point here is that what we’re seeing is a part of the same yet-to-end pattern.
Many investors do not grasp that part (while many do). Little has been unwound; the reform is limited and we do not have toxic asset transparency yet; while many of the new rules have two years for implementation. A lot can happen financially in that time by the way. Not to mention that (as I wrote ‘don’t cry for me Argentina’ in 2007) all the IMF-regulated bailouts or controlled stabilization efforts resulted in downgrades with rare exception; and in all cases there was long periods of misery before recoveries. If you presume the U.S. never (portion reserved for members). It won’t be particularly strong, and will weigh heavily on multinational big caps. The new week will likely be (pattern forecast for members); as subject to news of course. Enjoy the holiday. The weekend video will follow highlights of the past week’s discussions:
Behind the scenes . . . of the excessive focus on how miserable the morning’s data on ‘jobs’ will be (written Thursday); is the reality of something more disconcerting. It’s what a majority is missing in this environment, and will come-back to haunt investors right after we get through the reaction to the Employment Report, negative with a ensuing rebound effort or not (traders know our reserved technical analysis on this).
That ‘more disconcerting’ aspect is the evidence of our Deflationary risk expanding in a lot of areas. No, besides what I reference with respect to what analysts are missing (in the 2nd video tonight), because they just can’t spin foreign growth favorable for our stocks, and foreign duress and slowdowns as equally favorable in the same timespan frankly), I think there’s a broader ‘takeaway’. That is ‘asset liquidation’, which propels the overall trend (at least shorter-term or eventually perhaps into a ‘capitulation’ that certainly alludes this market so far) eventually to lower levels not a premature lasting ‘halt’ (again aside intervening rebounds). The confluence of factors is really severe. I point out that though markets were weaker as forecast, there’s no capitulation yet.
Even though Treasury yields have come down, and corporate coffers have plenty of cash, there is still not much to turn around ‘capital spending’, though that (redacted).
Meanwhile, the behind-the-front-pages unwinding is fierce from what we hear. This is a Fed in panic (threatening to go into ‘turbo’ money printing mode and so far unwilling to realize that will worsen confidence, not enhance it); and there is a systemic risk as is almost completely not recognized (details reserved for our members only).
The only visible recourse (alternatives redacted) is deflation continuing (ongoing for over 3 years in the majority of areas of our society). For now liquidations I’m referring to are emblematic of the shattered liquidity system (just because there is sidelined liquidity that could be put to work, doesn’t mean it will be, at least not yet; no reason for that).
Concurrently the illusion of the nonporous (pun intended) precious metals market has been shattered a bit too; as Gold & Silver continue retrenching following my warnings that these sectors became overplayed for the short-term (forward action is noted).
You can’t back toxic derivatives with precious metals. And nobody wants to approach the significance (aka think of Enron) of OTC derivatives plays that BP may be in (note they hold some say more such assets than even a GE should push come to shove as it may). So even if we get a slightly (hourly more likely than even a full daily-basis) bit of a pop, it won’t be a full ‘coiled spring’ turnaround either in metals or US stocks for that matter. Our thinking is that any effort (shy) of the breakdown point will precede a new drop (compressing that spring would be the most optimistic view we could even imply, though things are not that healthy) which takes the S&P solidly under 1000.
(Macro) action. . thus continues to believe that even if we get the most disappointing numbers in (Fri) morning imaginable and the market washes out subsequently trying rebounds that it won’t be any sort of new beginning. Sure, you can get the short-side a bit crowded, and run some in; but many will retain the conviction for ensuing drops.
Disarray . . . in global economic approaches, along with myopic domestic policies; in-part contributed to our suspicion that ‘window undressing’ would dominate the end of a very successful trading (2nd) Quarter, during which in March and April we forecast a distributional ‘dome’ which would likely evolve into a ‘head & shoulders’ top; and with a bias for ‘crash conditions’ to present themselves in May (as subsequently occurred) with an ensuing bounce and then lower lows. We called for ‘window undressing’ as a bias, and also a break of the ‘lateral supports’ of S&P 1040 long before others saw it.
The other aspect of the ‘technical’ pattern was the market’s primates (pundits and of course those compulsory optimists) making proclamations about how attractive most of the equities are (some go so far as to say they think stocks have the ‘wind at their backs’, which is totally delusional, as they are fighting a myriad of headwinds now; of course that even includes the Chinese slowing, IMF mandated constrains elsewhere, and factors we’ve outlined in greater detail to our members).
Given that the ‘interrelationship’ of psychology, technicals and poor fundamentals, for all realists was interlocked, there was no sustainable bullish argument in these recent weeks, and we said that too. The two typical arguments presented are that values by now are ‘cheap’ and that too many players are bearish, so the market has to go up. If too many believe the latter, then the counter-counter is that they’re not defensive, but are buyers, thus interestingly negativity isn’t an ‘operative’ view if they’re heavily long.
Second, valuations have to be related to ‘anticipated’ growth rates. Sure, you get the high PE’s for stocks at tops no when there are no earnings or low profits; so it’s really a poor methodology. However you can look at the overall S&P multiple and conclude that it’s ‘not’ cheap as the bulls argue, but fairly high for a projected slow-growth time present and still ahead. Sorry about that; but as I contended since projected this ‘epic debacle’ over 3 years ago; my point was to ‘throw out rules or perceptions’ garnered over the last 5-10 years, and value everything based on comparative analysis as we described and update to our members).
Absent rudimentary interruptions from ‘turbo money printing’ or the like; be careful as far as the long side of the ledger. It was almost humorous hearing pundits or analysts ‘now’ chatting about our lateral supports (breaking) or even a ‘head & shoulders’ top ….we’ve been warning this would all transpire for 3 months now; using those terms a couple months ago; not after-the-fact silliness when it’s too late to assume ‘defense’.
And since China floated the Yuan last week (Monday) we assumed a larger net short posture, believing this was bearish, not bullish, for so many reasons noted. Our focus was on (reserved) for durations.
(Large portions reserved in fairness for members only.) Fundamentals are not strong; and even skeptics say there’s no clarity. Really? Foggy bottom this is not (pun intended; and nobody reports that Hillary Clinton is going to be in Georgia and Azerbaijan and even Armenia and Poland starting July 1….connect the dots with our concern about rising regional ‘Near-East’ tensions)… it’s not foggy because for at least a number of reasons you have a market that is rolling over. This is a rollover; so pure and simple. There will be bounces, but none should be particularly sustainable.
There has been an increase in the amplitude of technical notations intraday as well; a feature that the noncommittal technicians should be noticing. Whatever approach you use, there is no denying the proximity to a breakdown continuity (strategy reserved).
But there has been so much damage it will take time. That’s why I said ‘not yet’ with respect to valuations. Abandon all hope is as stupid as ‘back up the truck’ nonsense. Usually you hear the same emotions from the same players in manic-depressive form also. I’d say ignore all that. The upside was reversible, and so will be the downside… but not yet. Look at the facts and the trends with an even-keel and with less emotion.
Meanwhile, I’m pleased many of you were and are bearishly postured overall from April; and congrads on hanging in there during the pattern calls, so to profit on the downside evolution. Or at least having hedged longs to protect your core portfolios (as we’ve done periodically over these entire last two months). This remains a risk-averse market and continues conforming to virtually everything we’ve outlined since forecasting back in March-April that there would be a new downside smash. It is not over. Later, we look forward to NY prices getting down to (reserved for members).
Despite the message trying to be conveyed to Tehran by deploying multiple battle groups to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean (not just the Persian Gulf), there is a big hole in this strategy that Iran is all too aware of (and their prior attacks on a US Navy warship during their earlier effort to block the Straits of Hormuz years ago proved): there is concern about no carrier (reserved discussion). That isn’t an entirely valid perspective, because (omitted details to condense discussion) techniques for ‘battle surface’ best be dusted-off as well. That means view twin challenges: new missile technology and surface warfare.
The US Navy has discussed this at war college levels recently. I know they broached this subject repeatedly if reluctantly in anything remotely public. In fact the hope (and eventual plan) is to equip the newest of the ‘littoral’ warships with laser weapons; but the weapons just aren’t ready yet. At the same time the nuclear weapons capability of Iran is about ready, and that means we may not have the luxury of convenience here.
For one thing, we can’t depend on Israel alone to knock-out all of those facilities, as if they can’t, there is still no option but for the US to finish that job, as there is not going to be a nuclear-capable Iran permitted as the President says, by waiting for very long.
Nobody talks about it; but we have a ‘pincer’ set-up with the magic numbers needed for our own ‘force protection’ in-event this President (yes, this one) were to order the assault. Plus both the USAF and the IAF (Israeli AF) have units in Azerbaijan and in Georgia right now, which puts fighter-bombers within relatively easy striking-range of most of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Teheran itself (near the Caspian and Black Sea) if we are to at least target government buildings. Such assault may be practicable in contrast to a ‘cruise missile’ assault (at least alone) due to proximity and distance.
Are we suggesting that we’re on the eve of warfare? Well that’s hard to say but more of the forces needed are in-place or rotating in that direction as we noted previously. It may be said that we cannot politically or financially afford this while engaged in two other conflicts. Two ways to look at that contrarily: one; that we can’t afford not to if it is evident that Iran is counting on those factors to dissuade our resolve while they go ahead and blunder into attacking anyone, and two; that we will likely never again be so well-equipped with forces on both sides of their border to support such campaigns. Since the hostage era; the radicals there are our enemy; don’t believe counterpoints.
In any event; we are not being alarmist; just realists. You don’t send one of our top Flag officers to command the new battle group just for recreation; and you shouldn’t assume that the USN hasn’t learned the lesson of carrier vulnerability that some are claiming exists (how could they not know; we developed the cruise design; as I noted again… ‘Harpoon’… the original). We simply have to adjust operating tactics. (More in the original write-up early this past week, if you wish to refer to the archives.)
Incidentally, the real target of the Iranians has never been in our thinking Israel; that’s a ploy to elicit support from Arab masses who normally are a good bit suspicious of the non-Arab-but-Islamic Iran. Until ‘imadingbat’ nobody ever really picked on Israel in Iran; then he did it to cover his nuclear program. In fact Iran was a primary supplier of oil to Israel (yes Iran) for years even with the mullahs there.
The likely real target is the oil-rich small sheikdoms of the Gulf, and probably Iraq; not to mention Iranian support for Islamist forces (read Revolutionary Guard’s equipped infiltrators) in Yemen, who really are after the Saudi Arabian oil fields, as already has been acknowledged by 2 penetrations into Saudi Arabia as were eventually repulsed.
All this ties-into why Washington is so upset with the terrible mess BP made of what would have provided US energy independence during a war in which oil supplies will be constrained as and if Iran manages to close the Straits of Hormuz (and they well might be able to make transit hazardous to say the least). And perhaps we’ll be very lucky, and one ‘relief’ well will allow plugging the upper ‘gushing’ structure of the wild well, while the second ‘relief’ well bridges underneath and proceeds to produce it as we need the oil. There is then no more risk producing it then already exists by drilling the relief wells. Only fools would suggest that the project be plugged and abandoned.
‘Controlled Depression’
Only (Mon) we hear major firm analysts talking about this as a ‘contained Depression’ (gee, where did I hear that one for the last two-three years); but one major analyst we all know, said it’s discounted (by what decline?). She is wrong in my opinion; and that view (a higher target) is exactly the same now as when they talked of solid growth for the year’s 2nd half. Does that mean Wall Street is bullish if there is growth or if there’s no growth (or little)? Apparently. That means they are spinning fundamental reality to fit their earlier view; or that they are so loaded with positions (or their clients) that they have no alternative (the latter is the more likely answer). We’d say be (reserved).
I also note that for three years I’ve argued ‘cash is not trash’ (it still is not) and that all the contrary arguments were intended to get you to take unjustified risks or to spend beyond your means; precisely what got this Nation into the problem in the first place. Government needs inflation and a debasing of the currency. They did not get that so now they’re in a quandary about what to do next. The President’s call for more newer spending is ‘old time religion’ and won’t work; just as the pleading for some states to defer cutting budgets because ‘we can’t handle too much at once’ is an old argument as it’s past that point, and there are about 40 states that can’t meet their obligations.
Many easier answers were addressable 2 years ago but they didn’t address them at the time. So now you do come down to fiscal restraint and doing it the old fashioned or proven way; earn it; don’t borrow it. This is very hard for politicians, or labor unions for their pensioners in particular, to accept. Because it means sharing the challenge. In most cases it’s not the salaries of poor teachers, or firemen being laid-off; it’s just the pensions for the three generations of those who came before, who the rest simply can’t carry on their backs in these circumstances. Double-dipping should be outlawed and it won’t be popular. Maybe these are the ‘tough decisions’ the President means...
Bottom-line: President Obama and Secretary Geithner went to G20; asked the rest of the world to keep rolling printing presses for ‘a little while longer’. The resounding answer was ‘NO’. Heads of state from Germany, France, England and Canada said NO. Ever polite, the Japanese had nothing to say and the Chinese also had nothing to say. As of tonight there is no solid engine of growth in (reserved large portions).
Debt impairment . . . is the concern; not earnings and recovery optimism as prevails, at least among the delusions of those who see a sustainable economic recovery with no contractions to test the mettle of the turnaround efforts domestically or worldwide.
I have called this a controlled Depression since forecasting it over three years ago; that the Fed and Treasury would facilitate systemic stabilization, but not much more. I regret to inform you we were and continue correct. (More continues for members.)
Bottom line: continuing characteristics; include (consolidated) bullet points for members:
MarketCast (intraday analysis & embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks forecast substantive failures by markets; particularly as 2010 evolves (whether just as a correction of a worse case remains to be assessed). Remember back in early 2007 we denied the 'liquidity' momentum as a canard; believing housing only the first asset bubble to deflate. We then outlined structured investment vehicle failures; banking issues, the confluence of asset deflations, and more; continuing with interruptions per projecting long ago: 'a perfect storm'. New sets of storm clouds quietly had gathered.As the debt bubbles continue to deflate, alternating tradable moves continue from a trading perspective. Against that backdrop retaining a macro (adjusted) Sept. S&P 1600 +/- short irrespective of interim oscillations. Technical analysis via video follows.
Daily Briefing Technical-Corner MarketCast Videos
Bits & Bytes . . . provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers primary technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech, or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P, plus ideas ingerletter.com thinks might merit further reflection. (Individual stock comments generally are provided in video overviews only; occasionally I'll have some thoughts here; however increasingly most all analysis is via video, as it should be.)
Over 3 years ago I commenced projecting an 'accident waiting to happen'; affirmed historically after long-duration periods of free money (Gilded Age mentality). Now a market finished struggling with over-extended rebounds as our economy restructures.
Though enormous efforts have avoided systemic disaster on the banking front; there is no equivalent rescue of the overall economy besides perception; nor restoration of engines for sustainable growth. People are adjusting to lower expectations; which will never be a favored approach to American life. Actually we don’t see it as permanently alternating the future; but we still have major adjustments to work-through. That’s the reason I warned about chasing rallies; not to mention major ‘commercial’ adjustments as are ongoing. And as I’ve said; fairly visible new storm clouds were clustering.
Happy 4th of July !
<h2 style="">Gene</h2>
Gene Inger,
Publisher
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