Merriman's weekly column
#1
Posted 17 July 2010 - 07:05 AM
As I have mentioned before, astrology does not predict but gives you a roadmap of what you can expect. If you decide to ignore it life will go on. But if you can keep your mind open, and just pay attention, you may learn something ..that there is something bigger out there than we think. I am not looking for arguments on whether there is validity to astrology. I'm only sharing. It's just one tool that can be used and even the best astrologers can be wrong. It's an art in interpretation. That said, this is for those who wish to keep an open mind and follow what is being said. I would mark these dates on my calendar..especially the Venus Retrograde Oct 8th. I remember it clearly when Merriman mentioned in one of his columns several weeks before in Feb 2009 to keep an eye on the Venus Retro that would be coming up March 6, 2009. Bingo!...and this is not a one time fluke. The time before was Oct 10,2002. Go check your charts...that particular one was when it signaled the end of the bear cycle (from late 2002-2002 when spx hit 776.76 around that time.) He makes a point to pay attention because if we are going down into it, chances are great we see a good reversal..how long that lasts cannot be predicted...just that there should be a reversal. This goes in line with his webcast I listened to where he says as long as 9484 holds...because that is major support. By the way, Merriman has a big following and it's not because he's wrong a lot..although he does reserve the right to be wrong..LOL!
By the way, July 26th as he mentions below is the last and final hard aspect of Saturn to Uranus. He mentions this has gone in line with tops and most likely why in his webcast besides the full moon on that same day, we would rally into it..gold and markets. The very first one was Nov 4th the day of the election and that was a top and the others that followed. Just something to remember because next week it will be volatile. I do point and figure along with other TA, and it's been flip flopping back and forth within weeks..something I had seen back in Dec 2008 which kept me conservative and nimble. This is contributing to many traders confusion and why you see so much flip flopping posting on the FF board, yet no one wishes to admit to it that they were wrong in their interpretation because eventually they were right again. LOL!
I don't believe you always have to be in the market. When the market is like this, sometimes it's best to stand back and watch. There will be clearer setups coming. Cash preservation sometimes is better than trying to make money. Uranus knows that. LOL!
Take a break from the market, kiss your love ones, and enjoy nature if you feel stress...It's not always about making money!
Peace!
MMA Ciomments for the Week Beginning July 19, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
We never said it would easy. And we always stated that this would be volatile time and markets would be difficult to trade.
Last week started out positive for equity markets around the world. After making a new low for 2010 the previous week (July 2-6), many stock markets soared into last Wednesday, July 14. Then, just when it looked like they were about to explode to the upside, they sold off again sharply on Friday. Welcome to this next layer of the Cardinal Climax, a new portal of reality where the old rules no longer work, and no one knows for sure what the new rules are. For the past few weeks, it’s been all about Uranus.
Yet despite the fact that technical levels of support and resistance seem to get violated at least once a week now, one factor remains the same. Since the yearly high of April 26, when Saturn made its fourth of five oppositions to Uranus, every decline has been to a lower low, and every rally to a lower high. Lower lows and lower highs of the same cycle type is the very definition of a bear market. Yet the rallies are always more than the normal corrective variety. They are stronger than most analysts would expect in a bear market. This is Uranus in action.
For example, after the low of June 8, when Jupiter and Uranus made their first of three conjunctions at 9757 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index rallied over 800 points in just a few days to nearly 10,600 on June 21 That was when the summer solstice squared Uranus and made a grand square to all the planets in the Cardinal Climax. It broke important resistance areas along the way, suggesting it was a new bull market. But then in the next two weeks, it lost all that and more as prices sank to a new low of 9614 on July 2 (July 6 in the S&P) as Uranus then changed directions from direct to retrograde. This created a resistance area around 10,250-10,350. That was easily broken last Wednesday as prices traded above 10,400, creating a new support zone around 10,250. That was then broken on Friday as prices plunged over 260 points. And now we head into the fifth and final Saturn-Uranus opposition next week. Uranus obeys no rules and has no respect for any support or resistance level. It can exceed both in quick fashion, and after doing that, it can either reverse or accelerate its downside breakout, since every cycle low and high are lower than the preceding one.
The extremes of price swings through support and resistance were also noticeable in precious metals. Both Gold and Silver rallied nicely from lows of the first week of July into the middle of last week. But by Friday, they too (like stocks) sold off sharply – even though currencies rallied strongly and the Dollar fell. This too is typical Uranus breaking the rules, for when the Dollar falls, isn’t Gold suppose to rally? About the only sectors that kept rallying were Treasuries, as investors are frightened of risk, and the grain markets, in accordance with our forecast for hot and dry weather. The drought is not only starting here in the USA, but very much so in Russia. That too is part of this Cardinal Climax, especially as Mars heads into its conjunction with Saturn on July 31.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are now entering the fifth and deepest layer of the Cardinal Climax, July 21-August 21, and maybe lasting into early October when Venus turns retrograde. You remember the last Venus retrograde, right? That was on March 6, 2009, which was one of the two potential dates for the 18-year cycle trough. The other possibility was October 10, 2002. That was also a Venus retrograde, and every eight years, it repeats it’s retrograde from the same sector of the zodiac (this time Scorpio, as in 2002). It is a good time to look for this current bear market to end if the DJIA cannot exceed 10,800 first.
But this week is important for many other reasons as well. On July 23-24, Jupiter will go stationary retrograde, in exact square to Pluto. Pluto rules debt and the potential of loss through destruction (i.e. drought, for example), and Jupiter exaggeration. On Monday, July 26, Saturn will make its fifth and final opposition to Uranus, a 45-year cycle that coincides with sudden, unexpected events and a possible crisis. Uranus with Saturn also rules things like earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, and natural acts of destruction when Pluto is also involved – as it is in this case. I would love to tell you with confidence that this means the market will be wildly up or down. But with Uranus, you never know which, and oftentimes it is both in a short amount of time, as we have already witnessed as of late. Anyone who thinks they really know, simply doesn’t know. There are far too may scenarios possible to make this a high confidence trading environment. Sometimes the most valuable thing an analyst can advise is step aside, avoid the risk, and wait it out. But no one wants to pay to hear that.
So let me say it really simply. We are entering a time band of perhaps the most powerful geocosmics signatures of a lifetime. We’ve never seen anything quite like what we are about to witness in the next month. So we don’t really know what to expect, except the unexpected. Normally we might think the Saturn-Uranus opposition would be a crash, and it might be. The previous four times in this series, it has correlated with a crest (not a trough), and after three of those times, the DJIA fell over 1500 points within the next 3-6 weeks. If you want to trade, you have to be nimble and ready to reverse quickly, perhaps on an almost daily schedule. If you cannot handle the stress of risk, stay out and watch this cosmically historical pattern unfold, and watch with amazement at the types of human activities and financial market movements that will likely unfold – assuming they don’t do the unexpected and absolutely nothing of note happens.
Longer-Term Thoughts
“One of (Nikolai) Kondratieff’s principle conclusions was that capitalism was self-correcting and not headed for destruction, a view that should dispel some of the gloom coming from arch-pessimists of today.”
-J. Anthony Boeckh, “The Great Reflation,” 2010, published by John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey.
Is Pluto in Capricorn (2008-2023) the start of a death march for capitalism? Many people think that the system of capitalism that was the root cause of the recent Panic (2008-2009). And therefore the “old” system of capitalism must be retired and replaced by a “new” economic system in order to prevent these types of painful panics in the future. But as Nikolai Kondratieff - the world’s most noted cycles’ analyst – suggests, the problem is not the economic system of capitalism, and the solution to cyclical downturns is not to replace capitalism. Capitalism is self-correcting, and downturns are cyclical, reoccurring, characteristics pertaining to human activity.
The cause behind all financial collapses is seldom the “system.” More often it is the abuse, neglect, or corruption of the system or its rules by individuals who are more driven with taking advantage of systems for personal gain than operating with integrity under basic principles that benefits the greater society. For instance, anti-capitalists tend to believe it is capitalists – especially leaders of big businesses – that corrupt society by buying favors from the regulators or administrators of the federal, state, or local governments. They believe these large firms will bribe – or lobby – in order to get around these barriers to greater profits. This may be true and certainly fits into the themes of Pluto in Capricorn, especially as it is being squared by Uranus in Aries through 2015. Only the strong and aggressive (and perhaps corrupt) will prosper.
But business leaders – especially of small businesses – don’t willingly pay bribes (or anything) in order to escape the rules and regulations of the community’s laws. Just as often it is the rogue regulator or administrator of the government who expects to be paid a fee in order to allow the enterprise to carry on business without a hassle. The corruption isn’t initiated by the entrepreneur (capitalist) anymore than it is by the government administrator, and in order to keep his business alive, the businessperson has to pay this additional “tax” to the regulator, or he will be found in defiance of a law he never knew existed. He will soon be out of business.
This is not to say that many government workers are corrupt, anymore than it is right to say that many - if not all – business leaders are corrupt. Most government workers and business leaders are honest. But when an economic crisis hits, people look for scapegoats, and the first place they look to is business and all enterprises that come under the banner of capitalism. Many look to government too as a cause, but government has the advantage of being able to divert attention to the evils of business over government, especially when the government leader him/herself attacks business as an evil empire. That’s news, it gets air time, and it affects the collective attitude towards business.
This is the poison that Pluto in Capricorn is rooting out over this 15-year period. Society won’t function efficiently unless business, banks, and the government all work in tandem with one another, and according to basic Capricorn rules of honesty and integrity. It doesn’t help when violations are ignored and become part of the accepted way of “doing business.” That leads to excesses and debts which finally topple the structure. It leads to sharp economic downturns, with the accompanying panics and loss of confidence in the government, banks, and businesses.
As Jupiter will soon be stationary and in exact square twice to Pluto (July 24-August 3), the destructive effects of debts and corruption may come more fully into view. Yes, this may have an orb of up to 6 months (we are already in the period of influence, and we see this already manifesting). But as these revelations come to light, the opportunity for corrections can be applied. That is the “self-correcting” nature of capitalism, and not necessarily its death.
#2
Posted 17 July 2010 - 08:50 AM
johngeorge
#4
Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:30 AM
Thanks for the post TM, I don't follow astrology, but always good to keep an open mind about what might affect human mass psychology, even if its just enough human mass following the thoughts of a famous astrologer to make a difference. I like the last line, especially the ultimate hedge at the end. We all do it, especially those that come to realize how tough the job of predicting the markets can be. Then there are those who haven't figured it out yet.
Peace. Doc
#5
Posted 18 July 2010 - 06:33 AM
arch crawfords take
http://www.youtube.c...player_embedded
dharma
Hi Dharma,
I just listened to him. Yea, I believe since 2001 it's been the end of the world as we know it. I believe every astrologer realizes the intensity of this Cardinal Climax that we are coming up to. Last year, I believe he called for a major crash at this time, and something awful was going to happen, and it didn't but the market was choppy yet going up. I would just love to know what his precentage is for being right vs wrong because I seem to catch his calls that are wrong or partially right. For me, I prefer balance in a forecast, letting us know both sides because there is always both sides to signatures imo. I'm not a professional like you but that's how I feel..that we do have choices to stop things that might happen from happening. We'll soon find out.
Wouldn't it be a hoot, if nothing happened? That could be the ultimate joke Uranus plays on us.
Thanks for Crawford's interpretation. Let's just send out some positive energy and hope for the best!
TM
#6
Posted 18 July 2010 - 07:07 AM
So let me say it really simply. We are entering a time band of perhaps the most powerful geocosmics signatures of a lifetime. We’ve never seen anything quite like what we are about to witness in the next month. So we don’t really know what to expect, except the unexpected. Normally we might think the Saturn-Uranus opposition would be a crash, and it might be. The previous four times in this series, it has correlated with a crest (not a trough), and after three of those times, the DJIA fell over 1500 points within the next 3-6 weeks. If you want to trade, you have to be nimble and ready to reverse quickly, perhaps on an almost daily schedule. If you cannot handle the stress of risk, stay out and watch this cosmically historical pattern unfold, and watch with amazement at the types of human activities and financial market movements that will likely unfold – assuming they don’t do the unexpected and absolutely nothing of note happens.
Thanks for the post TM, I don't follow astrology, but always good to keep an open mind about what might affect human mass psychology, even if its just enough human mass following the thoughts of a famous astrologer to make a difference. I like the last line, especially the ultimate hedge at the end. We all do it, especially those that come to realize how tough the job of predicting the markets can be. Then there are those who haven't figured it out yet.
Peace. Doc
Echo,
Yes, I noticed that too ..the ultimate hedge...LOL! Although, he gives himself an out, sometimes nothing really does happens with signatures that appear to be intense. I remember when I first followed Merriman and was allowing astrology to overtake my TA...giving me caution where there was bullish setups...and realizing you can't do it that way. That's why I mentioned it's just another tool for trading and let TA do the talking. But in this case, TA is talking both sides of its mouth...LOL! That's why I'm mostly in cash except a small position in slv. I noticed Friday something really weird with slv. IT dropped on the open but held 17.45-17.50 most of the day testing it's 200 day on the daily which is 17.30. The low was 17.34 and after the first 1/2 hr of selling, it was mostly all accumulating..even while the market was continuing going down to 200 pts ..that area wasn't budging. You can see it on the 60 minute chart. But one thing with silver it can fool you like Uranus and drop quickly even though you saw a bullish divergence.
I watch slv a lot because it's fun to trade. It's been really odd this year compared to gld. Merriman pointed out the interbearshness silver had to gold in his 2010 forecast book which was printed in the fall. And silver couldn't make a new hi from it's 2006 peak like gold did. But in his webcast it just so happens he says it could happen this time where it does break out as long as 17 holds and getting past 19.50, it can get to 22 by the first week of August..this goes in line with the gold rise that is possible too as long as 1185 holds which Friday it tested but tomorrow we could find out if it breaks down. One thing he says that could happen if silver does break its high that later in August/Sept, it could quickly drop...50% from the peak...to maybe $10...or both gold and silver could just go down from here. Is he hedging?
Echo, don't you have an 80 week low coming in?..something like that? You are one of those I do read.
Thanks
TM
#7
Posted 18 July 2010 - 07:18 AM
http://www.zerohedge...escue-loan-acce
Above was taken from the FF board posted by Dcenger...and below is what I said Merrman said in his webcast...we shall see if he is correct.
As I mentioned on that thread, , his gut thinks we are going up in gold into the July 23-Aug 10th period which includes (some planet, sorry, missed that) entering the helio Saggitarius on Jul 30-31...that's when he says typically gold skyrockets during a period like that...usually 6-9 days afterwards. And then fall after that could fall $200-300 from that top. The reason for the parabolic rise is he suspects another default in August for Europe.
#8
Posted 18 July 2010 - 11:25 AM
#9
Posted 19 July 2010 - 10:24 AM
#10
Posted 24 July 2010 - 06:13 AM










