6 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

A 15 week cycle low is due in the next few weeks ... cheers, john

[inamosa]

Thanks for the update, John. Seems like a number of people are looking for an August low.

[SilentOne]

Could be a very important low too. Posted back in March ...

My cycle work would make much more sense to me if the HUI put in a major low on 08/2010 and then rallied to new alltime highs into 03/2012.

http://www.traders-t...rt=#entry512262

Many traders don't get cycles and why you'd bother watching them on various markets. If you suspected that an August low might be ahead (back in March), you'd trade with that in mind wouldn't you?

I think this chart is the real deal.



GL/GT

cheers,

john

[beta]

Thank you for posting, John. I always appreciate your cycle updates. One question: does your model allow for inversions, i.e., general inflection points as opposed to absolute peaks/troughs? In other words, is it possible -- as with the Amanita -- that Aug 2010 will be a significant peak, instead of a significant low?

[SilentOne]

Thank you for posting, John. I always appreciate your cycle updates.

One question: does your model allow for inversions, i.e., general inflection points as opposed to absolute peaks/troughs?

In other words, is it possible -- as with the Amanita -- that Aug 2010 will be a significant peak, instead of a significant low?

beta,

There are no inversions in Hurst cycle theory. You can get failures of major cycle lows, but inversions is not the language of Hurst. I'll give you an example. The $SPX made a 4.5 year Hurst cycle low in Aug. 2007. When we took out that low in the first quarter of 2008, it was very bearish from a Hurst theory point of view. The declines later in 2008/2009 bore that out. When a market takes out what should have been a mjor cycle low, it is plain bearish. That said, we could be putting in larger cycle lows for PMs than many expect. All I can do is follow the short term 15 week cycle for now and trade accordingly. It is the status of the 94.5 and 9 year lows that are in question, We'll know their influence after the coming low.

http://www.traders-t...?...=119619&hl=



The Euro is in much the same position.

http://www.traders-t...?...=119750&hl=



cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 25 July 2010 - 01:45 PM.

[SilentOne]

Should read ... "It is the status of the 4.5 and 9 year lows that are in question"

[denmo83]

A 15 week cycle low is due in the next few weeks ...

cheers,

john

Thanks John. Always appreciate your work.