6 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

I have a 7/8 week cycle low for gold and the gold indices due right here, so I have been scaling into longs since late last week. I expected a much deeper correction, but I do not want to be totally out of the PM market. Mental stops are below recent lows for the HUI and XAU.

For what its worth, I reentered longs at better prices than I sold on the last day in August. But I won't be able to buy back gold and silver here. I'll have to wait until the next 7/8 week cycle low. No telling what happens over the next 7/8 week cycle.

I do have cycles charts based on peaks analysis that show new highs for gold later next year. I will also point out that every 7/8 week cycle low this year has been a higher low. The dates for those lows are:

Feb. 5, 2010
March 25, 2010
May 21, 2010
July 19, 2010
Sept. 9, 2010

I had expected a sharper correction into the last 7/8 week cycle low. This is why I was bearish into mid-Sept.

We may get some kind of rise into Dec. and then another sharp decline into the new year. But so far, I have tried to stick with buying these cycle lows. Two reasons: (1) I don't want to be out of this market entirely, and (2) this strategy is 5/5 for swing trades in 2010. Now we may get tremendous volatility over the next 7/8 week cycle, but that will simply get me to my next swing trade point.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 28 October 2010 - 12:04 PM.

[johngeorge]

Thanks john Been buying since last week myself. I sure appreciate those updates. Best to you.

[stubaby]

John:

Thanks - I follow your work and appreciate your Intermediate-Term views.

The quick drop last week seems "too easy" given the shallow retrace (38% Fib only) - probably only lost those that were "late buyers" or a few weak hands. I always maintain core holdings and trade around them (same as dharma, but with a lower overall allocation). Could be "blue skys" ahead from here, but I still think we have short-term weakness ahead to buy into (below the Wave a lows shown below):

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=212126235

With the gap fill today, I believe we are completing Wave b, with Wave c just ahead. I will be buying relative strength as I always try to do in the weeks ahead.

stubaby

[SilentOne]

I have a 7/8 week cycle low for gold and the gold indices due right here, so I have been scaling into longs since late last week. I expected a much deeper correction, but I do not want to be totally out of the PM market. Mental stops are below recent lows for the HUI and XAU.

For what its worth, I reentered longs at better prices than I sold on the last day in August. But I won't be able to buy back gold and silver here. I'll have to wait until the next 7/8 week cycle low. No telling what happens over the next 7/8 week cycle.

I do have cycles charts based on peaks analysis that show new highs for gold later next year. I will also point out that every 7/8 week cycle low this year has been a higher low. The dates for those lows are:

Feb. 5, 2010
March 25, 2010
May 21, 2010
July 19, 2010
Sept. 9, 2010

I had expected a sharper correction into the last 7/8 week cycle low. This is why I was bearish into mid-Sept.

We may get some kind of rise into Dec. and then another sharp decline into the new year. But so far, I have tried to stick with buying these cycle lows. Two reasons: (1) I don't want to be out of this market entirely, and (2) this strategy is 5/5 for swing trades in 2010. Now we may get tremendous volatility over the next 7/8 week cycle, but that will simply get me to my next swing trade point.

cheers,

john

Well, that's 6/6 in 2010. A 17% gainer for the XAU. I didn't capture that move with any leverage, just a basket of longs. Poor old conservative me.

this strategy is 5/5 for swing trades in 2010

The next buy is due in Dec.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 18 November 2010 - 05:35 PM.

[inamosa]

Nice work, John! Thank you for sharing your views, as always.

[SilentOne]

Nice work, John!

Thank you for sharing your views, as always.

aly,

Taking some short term trading profits here from positions in gold and ETFs taken last week. Now we wait for hopefully will be a good low to buy in Dec. This will be a 7/8 week cycle low and a 14 week low as well. Larger cycles may or may not be involved here as well.

cheers,

john

[johngeorge]

Nice work, John!

Thank you for sharing your views, as always.

aly,

Taking some short term trading profits here from positions in gold and ETFs taken last week. Now we wait for hopefully will be a good low to buy in Dec. This will be a 7/8 week cycle low and a 14 week low as well. Larger cycles may or may not be involved here as well.

cheers,

john

I second alysomji. Thanks john.

Best to you.