Guru Review

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Money Demand & Hyperinflation, eventually
stocks
post Apr 14 2011, 08:37 AM
Post #1


Member


Group: Traders-Talk User
Posts: 2285
Joined: 17-December 03
Member No.: 744



Velocity of Money In the Driver's Seat, Not "Money Printing"

The massive printing that first comes to mind when anyone mentions hyperinflation is NOT the cause, it is an effect


During stable times money is always in demand, more or less, which gives the supply side (the printer) control over the value of a fiat currency. He can loosen or tighten at will, because the demand side is always, to some extent, pulling on the rope. So during stable and predictable times, it is fair to say that the value of money is primarily a factor of quantity, or supply. Demand for money (or its velocity) is relatively stable during these times delivering (almost) full control of value to the printer—the supply controller.

But during unstable times something changes. The demand side of the equations suddenly takes value-control away from the printer. This is where we are today, and where we have been since 2008.

When the economy is struggling, unemployment high, home prices falling, people are afraid to spend their money. This drives up the demand for money, slows the velocity of money, raises the value of money and lowers the prices of things and assets. Likewise, when the financial markets are crashing, the demand for cash skyrockets while plunging assets bid frantically for dollars. Both of these demand-driven events act just like a large deflation in the money supply as they drive up the value of money and lower the prices of other things.

When this happens, the money printer tries to counter demand by increasing supply. But today, clearly, demand is in the driver's seat, not supply. That's because in 2008 we moved from the stable and predictable into the unstable and uncertain.


Fear is the main emotional motivator in any currency collapse, just like it is in financial market meltdowns.

The initiating spark of hyperinflation (currency collapse) is the loss of confidence in a currency. This drives the fear of loss of purchasing power which drives people to quickly exchange currency for any economic good they can get their hands on. This drives the prices of economic goods up and empties store shelves, which causes more panic and fear in a vicious feedback loop.

The printing of wheelbarrows full of cash is the government's response to price hyperinflation (currency collapse), not its cause. This uncontrollable (knee-jerk) government response happens in some cases, but not all. Let me repeat: The massive printing that first comes to mind when anyone mentions hyperinflation is not the cause, it is an effect, in the common understanding of hyperinflation which is the collapse of a currency.


Velocity of Money


--------------------
Pride cometh before a fall.

Utopias of equality are biologically doomed. Superior ability will have its way.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
CHAx
post Apr 14 2011, 10:39 AM
Post #2


Member


Group: Traders-Talk User
Posts: 1084
Joined: 18-September 07
Member No.: 6325



I dont want to get into a discussion but I will just say this:

1 what you quote is the post Keynesian "argument" for why inflation can be controlled.
2 The Keynesians have a VERY poor model for money supply and "velocity".


Per Ludwig Von Mises:


" the inflow of additional money makes the prices of some commodities and services rise; other prices rise later. The price rise affects the various commodities and services … at different dates and to a different extent. This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people … who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and … increase their cash holdings. increase their cash holdings. But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time … the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. "

This post has been edited by CHAx: Apr 14 2011, 10:48 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post



Reply to this topicStart new topic

 



RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 24th July 2014 - 01:16 AM
The Financial Ad Trader
The Financial Ad Trader