10 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

This thread is the previous discussion:

600 Juniors to Disappear from Scene by June 2013...

http://stockcharts.c...64406296849.png

http://stockcharts.c...64406324927.png

http://stockcharts.c...64406357774.png

[SemiBizz]

I sincerely hope you have your indicator interpreters set for low-volume distortion... Been a lotta planes crashed in the market on that setup... Seriously, I wouldn't touch this group until XAU shows me 141 and then only on a light volume pullback...

[SemiBizz]

Compare the thrust off this high volume swing low on the weekly with the last one in May...

It's a great idea,

No gas in the tank...

What a wimpy bounce.

Deserves to test the low, period... shown us NOTHING.


http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif


http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 27 March 2013 - 02:29 PM.

[diogenes227]

Semi, Thanks for the cautionary notes. Your point is well taken. On the daily in May, I see now, this setup did produce a pop on GDXJ from about 18.5 or so to about 21 or so but it did fall apart to around breakeven by the time there was any real sell signal. But no matter, the way I trade pretty much anything is -- it goes my way right away or I go away. Good luck to you and good trading.

[tomterrific14]

http://www.decisionp...om/tac/ORD.html

What does the monthly XAU:GOLD chart imply.?

Gold company proven and probable reserves have never been valued so low in 20 years (and since 1941, after Pearl harbour).

Gold company stocks are a long term call option of the price of Gold, and at the current value 9.5% are very cheap for what is in effect an about 10 year call option (the longevity of current reserves at current production rates).

This abnormality is like buying the VIX at 9.50 (but for a 10 year duration, not the 3 month duration that the VIX reflects.) The historical low on the VIX is 10.

A rough estimate of the potential appreciation of the XAU on a rally in GOLD to 1700 is about 57%, assuming a reversion to a regression trend line of the long term ratio to about 12.5 (from the current 9.5). So, a 6% rally in Gold from current 1595 to 1700, could senf the XAU to 212 from the current 135 price....57 %.....and even at that valuation ratio (12.5), the Xau would still be half of what it was at the 2011 highs.

And what could be the the downside risk from here.?

[SemiBizz]

http://www.decisionp...om/tac/ORD.html

What does the monthly XAU:GOLD chart imply.?

Gold company proven and probable reserves have never been valued so low in 20 years (and since 1941, after Pearl harbour).

Gold company stocks are a long term call option of the price of Gold, and at the current value 9.5% are very cheap for what is in effect an about 10 year call option (the longevity of current reserves at current production rates).

This abnormality is like buying the VIX at 9.50 (but for a 10 year duration, not the 3 month duration that the VIX reflects.) The historical low on the VIX is 10.

A rough estimate of the potential appreciation of the XAU on a rally in GOLD to 1700 is about 57%, assuming a reversion to a regression trend line of the long term ratio to about 12.5 (from the current 9.5). So, a 6% rally in Gold from current 1595 to 1700, could senf the XAU to 212 from the current 135 price....57 %.....and even at that valuation ratio (12.5), the Xau would still be half of what it was at the 2011 highs.

And what could be the the downside risk from here.?

XAU 56, might wanna write that one down, that's gold I am giving you.

[tomterrific14]

http://www.decisionp...om/tac/ORD.html

What does the monthly XAU:GOLD chart imply.?

Gold company proven and probable reserves have never been valued so low in 20 years (and since 1941, after Pearl harbour).

Gold company stocks are a long term call option of the price of Gold, and at the current value 9.5% are very cheap for what is in effect an about 10 year call option (the longevity of current reserves at current production rates).

This abnormality is like buying the VIX at 9.50 (but for a 10 year duration, not the 3 month duration that the VIX reflects.) The historical low on the VIX is 10.

A rough estimate of the potential appreciation of the XAU on a rally in GOLD to 1700 is about 57%, assuming a reversion to a regression trend line of the long term ratio to about 12.5 (from the current 9.5). So, a 6% rally in Gold from current 1595 to 1700, could senf the XAU to 212 from the current 135 price....57 %.....and even at that valuation ratio (12.5), the Xau would still be half of what it was at the 2011 highs.

And what could be the the downside risk from here.?

XAU 56, might wanna write that one down, that's gold I am giving you.

DUST is the vehicle for that at 51.19...should reach 150 on a move to 56 on XAU.

[PrintFaster]

Notice how Jim Puplava at FSO is now making fun of guys like Jim Sinclair and Eric King for being doomsayers, constantly predicting equity market crashes, hyperinflation, and gold going parabolic. Puplava is now a raging stock market and U.S. dollar bull, his "storm series" discussions now discarded. Most of his guest agree that the gold run is now over, 11 up years in a row is enough. Basically, 10 years worth of research and theory now down the drain. This proves that most of these people are around simply to sell newsletters and rake in fees. If Puplava had preached getting fully invested in retail stocks back in 2009 he would be aggressively sought after by Bloomberg and CNBC and viewed as a financial superhero. Same goes for Jim Sinclair and others.

[diogenes227]

Semi,

Thanks for the cautionary notes. Your point is well taken. On the daily in May, I see now, this setup did produce a pop on GDXJ from about 18.5 or so to about 21 or so but it did fall apart to around breakeven by the time there was any real sell signal.

But no matter, the way I trade pretty much anything is -- it goes my way right away or I go away.

Good luck to you and good trading.

Stopped out and reassessing.

[tomterrific14]

Semi,

Thanks for the cautionary notes. Your point is well taken. On the daily in May, I see now, this setup did produce a pop on GDXJ from about 18.5 or so to about 21 or so but it did fall apart to around breakeven by the time there was any real sell signal.

But no matter, the way I trade pretty much anything is -- it goes my way right away or I go away.

Good luck to you and good trading.

Stopped out and reassessing.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=22540

"A New Multi-Year Low in the HGNSI

There would be little need to write this update if not for a rather remarkable new sentiment record. After having been stuck for a while at minus 12.5, the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which measures the average recommendation of gold market timing advisers, has reached a level that hasn't been seen in a very long time, if ever (it definitely has never occurred since the beginning of the bull market in 1999/2000).

The average recommendation is now to be 31% net short. Given that this is an average and considering that there are probably a handful of permabulls in the newsletter business, this is pretty extreme – especially as neither gold nor silver have broken the major lateral support levels that have been in force since the beginning of the consolidation period in 2011. Of course they still may break said supports. The point is that this has not happened yet, while sentiment is at levels that would normally suggest otherwise. That is quite astonishing."