5 replies to this topic

[tomterrific14]

http://www.financial...als-bull-market

Fundamental undervaluation of the HUI in terms of Price to Cash Flow and Price to sales is at historic lows , as shown in charts in the above link.

And technically in terms of valuation to GOLD the below charts indicate historical oversold.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery....;XAU:$GOLD

http://stockcharts.c.......24HUI:$GOLD

See updated ratios of XAU and HUI to Gold in the below kink to the lower regression band in the XAU:GOLD and HUI:GOLD over the past decades, now at .079 for XAU and .20 for HUI.

http://goldsilverwor...arts-till-2012/

Gold stocks are being valued, technically and fundamental at levels last seen when Gold was under $800 oz. in 2008....and for the XAU lower than at any time in the past 28 years (and even after the Pearl Harbor attack, if one uses the Barrons Gold Mining Index to Gold at that time.)

[DrSP]

The XAU: Gold/ Gold:Dow / XAU: HUI/ whatever are all ratios created by fools to mask their bullishness. Means in reality, there is no value to these ratios. Just because they are valued at Pearl Harbor does not mean they are going to rise above and shine.

[SemiBizz]

I don't think so...

I have XAU pretty well charted out on my software here.

Here's a monthly chart I did the channel layout on some time ago...

There's no channel support until at least around 100.

[SemiBizz]

GLD should bounce around 136-137 after it breaks that 142.55 support...

[dougie]

so maybe we are heading under 800?

http://www.financial...als-bull-market

Fundamental undervaluation of the HUI in terms of Price to Cash Flow and Price to sales is at historic lows , as shown in charts in the above link.

And technically in terms of valuation to GOLD the below charts indicate historical oversold.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery....;XAU:$GOLD

http://stockcharts.c.......24HUI:$GOLD

See updated ratios of XAU and HUI to Gold in the below kink to the lower regression band in the XAU:GOLD and HUI:GOLD over the past decades, now at .079 for XAU and .20 for HUI.

http://goldsilverwor...arts-till-2012/

Gold stocks are being valued, technically and fundamental at levels last seen when Gold was under $800 oz. in 2008....and for the XAU lower than at any time in the past 28 years (and even after the Pearl Harbor attack, if one uses the Barrons Gold Mining Index to Gold at that time.)

[tomterrific14]

The XAU: Gold/ Gold:Dow / XAU: HUI/ whatever are all ratios created by fools to mask their bullishness. Means in reality, there is no value to these ratios. Just because they are valued at Pearl Harbor does not mean they are going to rise above and shine.

If one is to examine the XAU:GOLD ratio, going back to 1985, in the below link, and see that were 6 times that the ratio got near the bottom linear regression band, (now it is the 7th time), and compare what GOLD and the XAU did...cynicism at the value of being negative on GOLD and the XAU wasn't exactly rewarded.

http://goldsilverwor...arts-till-2012/

If one is to disregard technical ratios of XAU:GOLD as having no value, is one also to place no value on the fundamental ratios of Price of HUI to Cash Flow and Price of HUI to Sales ratio too, as shown in the below link, going back to 2000.?

http://www.financial...als-bull-market

What other metric has better value for a determination of the timeliness of an investment in the Gold stocks.?

Bearish sentiment, by many measures, is at historical extremes...The Hulbert Newsletters net recommendation to Gold is minus 31 %, meaning net short, for example, a record low. And there are many other measures of sentiment toward Gold and Gold Stocks that are similarly at or near record lows.

If is one thing to have and express an opinion on the market or a sector in the market, and another to have objective presentation (via charts)....of technical and fundamental measures, that in the past have been very accurate for timely investment....having those measures to present would give some measure of credence to one's belief.

Having said all the above, is next week the ideal buy spot for Gold stocks and GOLD? Maybe not, as Gold is in free fall at the present time. But dollar cost averaging at these and possible lower levels, on a risk/reward basis, will, IMHO, be more profitable that one buying the SPX at these levels and averaging up.