6 replies to this topic

[CLK]

I'm expecting $12-$25 oil by December. I'm already short oil, and plan on shorting more.

[dougie]

WOW! is this purely a technical call or you are envisioning some serious deflationary scenario?

[dougie]

May I ask what your vehicle is for shorting? USO?

[CLK]

WOW! is this purely a technical call or
you are envisioning some serious deflationary scenario?

Purely technical. But I could site Gold as proof that deflation is coming, I would rather call it disinflation, because
we will only be going back to fair value or a little below, not outright deflation. Commodities don't go up like
stocks, they mostly oscillate in a sideways channel with big swings over time.

The CRB bubble in 2008 marked a long term top, new lows ahead now, this does not mean the stock market will
follow. I do see a 25% drop for the market sometime over the next 12 months, with 16k the absolute top for the DOW
should it get there before it starts.


The cycle is the same as mid 1980s, look at 1985-86 and this is what I expect.

Edited by CLK, 14 April 2013 - 01:52 PM.

[CLK]

May I ask what your vehicle is for shorting? USO?

Sent PM.

[dougie]

Thank you!

WOW! is this purely a technical call or
you are envisioning some serious deflationary scenario?

Purely technical. But I could site Gold as proof that deflation is coming, I would rather call it disinflation, because
we will only be going back to fair value or a little below, not outright deflation. Commodities don't go up like
stocks, they mostly oscillate in a sideways channel with big swings over time.

The CRB bubble in 2008 marked a long term top, new lows ahead now, this does not mean the stock market will
follow. I do see a 25% drop for the market sometime over the next 12 months, with 16k the absolute top for the DOW
should it get there before it starts.


The cycle is the same as mid 1980s, look at 1985-86 and this is what I expect.

[fib_1618]

I'm expecting $12-$25 oil by December.