6 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

I wasn't going to post till I got something significant because back in Dec and a few times after I posted that gdx and gold got a negative pnf trend. Prior to that I posted warnings about gdx's Relative strength (RS) changes going to O..going to Sell that lead to the negative trend. Along the way I updated how silver's RS and trend changed negative too. Back in March or early Apr (can't recall) I posted how GDX got it's first buy signal in over 4 months and thought maybe that could have been a sign of improvement, only to find out later it was a false breakout and got a sell down the road.

The only reason I thought I'd post something imo significant was because of all the confusion of the real direction of gold. First at this time, no one really knows and time will tell. That said if one follows this chart which is taken from Terry Laundry's set up for gld but I put it in for gold going back to 1980 (you can only see going back to 1980 if you have a subscription going back that far otherwise it stops I think at 10 yrs) I believe this would give you more of an idea longer term in next few months.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...&listNum=10

Note how it 1980 we broke the lower line and continued downward. If the price breaks around 1300 and keeps hugging that lower line along with the curving downward of the chart, it would suggest something similar. If we consolidate along this are of 1320 and start moving up soon past the mid line which right now is 1666 (which will change in time) then we watch to see if it can reach the top area...1888-2016 (that too will change in time). The point I'm making is to just watch how this chart is curving and if we break the lower level to get an idea of time. A snapback over that mid line would be more bullish.

So imo, watch the chart for direction.

If we do get through that midline I personally would watch for RS changes to X or Buy. This time the RS is important not just pnf price signals as that would only be a counter trend until the RS gives its signal and from there the pnf trend would need to change to positive. ( a trend change last months, oil had a positive trend change in Nov and recently got a negative trend change, just to give you an idea of time)

In the past and to those I email with, I bring up about pnf and RS and trend changes as a great guide to manage risk. If anyone is interested Dorseywright.com always offers a free 3 week trial for anyone who wants to educate themselves outside of stockcharts. There is so much more to learn about pnf that stockcharts doesn't show. Dorsey was one of the founders.

Regarding equities, I got my short term alerts over a week ago to pay attention for the nyse bp to change to O and last week it did. So now it's on defense at 68% coming down from 76%. If it touches 52% it is then a sell on the nyse bp and that would mean more severe correction is ahead. But having the nyse bp reversing to O is a confidence for shorts to short equities. I'll be watching for the short term indicators to reverse back to X for a heads up too.

I'm only going now by gut but I get the feeling Jun 22 (Bradley) turn is some significant low for equities as right now last year is similar to this year with the nyse bp turning to O in Apr, went down into May and reversing back in June. Typically it last multi months but there was 1 time I saw in a matter of a month a reversal 2 times and that was Dec 2008. But the norm is 2 months or more fwiw. I've said this before to some of my email friends that I think the only way gold gets moving is when the appetite for equities stops and that is too soon to call imo.

I'm not here to act like I have the answers. The gold forum use to be a nice respectable place and I hope it can go back to that. I'll be happy to answer any questions I can answer on pnf if someone is interested but will ignore anyone who attacks as that is counter productive. This should be a place to share information and that is my only intention

Good trading

TM
P.S FWIW the Euro got a negative trend 2 weeks ago and Merriman has the $ rally lasting into some time next year which imo puts pressure on gold unless we get some catalyst to move gold back to a safety mechanism again

Edited by tradermama, 21 April 2013 - 07:30 AM.

[tomterrific14]

I wasn't going to post till I got something significant because back in Dec and a few times after I posted that gdx and gold got a negative pnf trend. Prior to that I posted warnings about gdx's Relative strength (RS) changes going to O..going to Sell that lead to the negative trend. Along the way I updated how silver's RS and trend changed negative too. Back in March or early Apr (can't recall) I posted how GDX got it's first buy signal in over 4 months and thought maybe that could have been a sign of improvement, only to find out later it was a false breakout and got a sell down the road.

The only reason I thought I'd post something imo significant was because of all the confusion of the real direction of gold. First at this time, no one really knows and time will tell. That said if one follows this chart which is taken from Terry Laundry's set up for gld but I put it in for gold going back to 1980 (you can only see going back to 1980 if you have a subscription going back that far otherwise it stops I think at 10 yrs) I believe this would give you more of an idea longer term in next few months.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...&listNum=10

Note how it 1980 we broke the lower line and continued downward. If the price breaks around 1300 and keeps hugging that lower line along with the curving downward of the chart, it would suggest something similar. If we consolidate along this are of 1320 and start moving up soon past the mid line which right now is 1666 (which will change in time) then we watch to see if it can reach the top area...1888-2016 (that too will change in time). The point I'm making is to just watch how this chart is curving and if we break the lower level to get an idea of time. A snapback over that mid line would be more bullish.

So imo, watch the chart for direction.

If we do get through that midline I personally would watch for RS changes to X or Buy. This time the RS is important not just pnf price signals as that would only be a counter trend until the RS gives its signal and from there the pnf trend would need to change to positive. ( a trend change last months, oil had a positive trend change in Nov and recently got a negative trend change, just to give you an idea of time)

In the past and to those I email with, I bring up about pnf and RS and trend changes as a great guide to manage risk. If anyone is interested Dorseywright.com always offers a free 3 week trial for anyone who wants to educate themselves outside of stockcharts. There is so much more to learn about pnf that stockcharts doesn't show. Dorsey was one of the founders.

Regarding equities, I got my short term alerts over a week ago to pay attention for the nyse bp to change to O and last week it did. So now it's on defense at 68% coming down from 76%. If it touches 52% it is then a sell on the nyse bp and that would mean more severe correction is ahead. But having the nyse bp reversing to O is a confidence for shorts to short equities. I'll be watching for the short term indicators to reverse back to X for a heads up too.

I'm only going now by gut but I get the feeling Jun 22 (Bradley) turn is some significant low for equities as right now last year is similar to this year with the nyse bp turning to O in Apr, went down into May and reversing back in June. Typically it last multi months but there was 1 time I saw in a matter of a month a reversal 2 times and that was Dec 2008. But the norm is 2 months or more fwiw. I've said this before to some of my email friends that I think the only way gold gets moving is when the appetite for equities stops and that is too soon to call imo.

I'm not here to act like I have the answers. The gold forum use to be a nice respectable place and I hope it can go back to that. I'll be happy to answer any questions I can answer on pnf if someone is interested but will ignore anyone who attacks as that is counter productive. This should be a place to share information and that is my only intention

Good trading

TM
P.S FWIW the Euro got a negative trend 2 weeks ago and Merriman has the $ rally lasting into some time next year which imo puts pressure on gold unless we get some catalyst to move gold back to a safety mechanism again

"Regarding equities, I got my short term alerts over a week ago to pay attention for the nyse bp to change to O and last week it did. So now it's on defense at 68% coming down from 76%. If it touches 52% it is then a sell on the nyse bp and that would mean more severe correction is ahead."

What is the rationale for the importance of the 52% level. All I can see is that the 52% level is the approximate halfway point from the Sep 2011 low to the recent high, as per the weekly $BPNYA chart:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPNYA

I would think that the important level to watch is the Nov 2012 low of 58.10 %, which, if penetrated, suggest a test of the 44-45 % previous low points....and breaking below those low points would or should bring on climatic selling.

$NYA50r and $NYA150r are 'leading the way' for $BPNYA and an expansion of the New Low list.

http://stockcharts.c....html?s=$NYA50R

http://stockcharts.c...html?s=$NYA150R

[tradermama]

I wasn't going to post till I got something significant because back in Dec and a few times after I posted that gdx and gold got a negative pnf trend. Prior to that I posted warnings about gdx's Relative strength (RS) changes going to O..going to Sell that lead to the negative trend. Along the way I updated how silver's RS and trend changed negative too. Back in March or early Apr (can't recall) I posted how GDX got it's first buy signal in over 4 months and thought maybe that could have been a sign of improvement, only to find out later it was a false breakout and got a sell down the road.

The only reason I thought I'd post something imo significant was because of all the confusion of the real direction of gold. First at this time, no one really knows and time will tell. That said if one follows this chart which is taken from Terry Laundry's set up for gld but I put it in for gold going back to 1980 (you can only see going back to 1980 if you have a subscription going back that far otherwise it stops I think at 10 yrs) I believe this would give you more of an idea longer term in next few months.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...&listNum=10

Note how it 1980 we broke the lower line and continued downward. If the price breaks around 1300 and keeps hugging that lower line along with the curving downward of the chart, it would suggest something similar. If we consolidate along this are of 1320 and start moving up soon past the mid line which right now is 1666 (which will change in time) then we watch to see if it can reach the top area...1888-2016 (that too will change in time). The point I'm making is to just watch how this chart is curving and if we break the lower level to get an idea of time. A snapback over that mid line would be more bullish.

So imo, watch the chart for direction.

If we do get through that midline I personally would watch for RS changes to X or Buy. This time the RS is important not just pnf price signals as that would only be a counter trend until the RS gives its signal and from there the pnf trend would need to change to positive. ( a trend change last months, oil had a positive trend change in Nov and recently got a negative trend change, just to give you an idea of time)

In the past and to those I email with, I bring up about pnf and RS and trend changes as a great guide to manage risk. If anyone is interested Dorseywright.com always offers a free 3 week trial for anyone who wants to educate themselves outside of stockcharts. There is so much more to learn about pnf that stockcharts doesn't show. Dorsey was one of the founders.

Regarding equities, I got my short term alerts over a week ago to pay attention for the nyse bp to change to O and last week it did. So now it's on defense at 68% coming down from 76%. If it touches 52% it is then a sell on the nyse bp and that would mean more severe correction is ahead. But having the nyse bp reversing to O is a confidence for shorts to short equities. I'll be watching for the short term indicators to reverse back to X for a heads up too.

I'm only going now by gut but I get the feeling Jun 22 (Bradley) turn is some significant low for equities as right now last year is similar to this year with the nyse bp turning to O in Apr, went down into May and reversing back in June. Typically it last multi months but there was 1 time I saw in a matter of a month a reversal 2 times and that was Dec 2008. But the norm is 2 months or more fwiw. I've said this before to some of my email friends that I think the only way gold gets moving is when the appetite for equities stops and that is too soon to call imo.

I'm not here to act like I have the answers. The gold forum use to be a nice respectable place and I hope it can go back to that. I'll be happy to answer any questions I can answer on pnf if someone is interested but will ignore anyone who attacks as that is counter productive. This should be a place to share information and that is my only intention

Good trading

TM
P.S FWIW the Euro got a negative trend 2 weeks ago and Merriman has the $ rally lasting into some time next year which imo puts pressure on gold unless we get some catalyst to move gold back to a safety mechanism again

"Regarding equities, I got my short term alerts over a week ago to pay attention for the nyse bp to change to O and last week it did. So now it's on defense at 68% coming down from 76%. If it touches 52% it is then a sell on the nyse bp and that would mean more severe correction is ahead."

What is the rationale for the importance of the 52% level. All I can see is that the 52% level is the approximate halfway point from the Sep 2011 low to the recent high, as per the weekly $BPNYA chart:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPNYA

I would think that the important level to watch is the Nov 2012 low of 58.10 %, which, if penetrated, suggest a test of the 44-45 % previous low points....and breaking below those low points would or should bring on climatic selling.

$NYA50r and $NYA150r are 'leading the way' for $BPNYA and an expansion of the New Low list.

http://stockcharts.c....html?s=$NYA50R

http://stockcharts.c...html?s=$NYA150R

Tom,
Remember in our conversations Stockcharts and Dorsey's pnf market indicators do not always line up the same way. On the Dorsey NYSE BP 52% if touched is a sell signal. That's just the way it is. In the world of pnf this is the main indicator we watch. That said it doesn't mean it catches bottoms or tops but that sell would have higher odds of a bigger correction is coming vs right now which is a reversal from X to O. There are short term indicators that could give a heads up of a reversal back to X is coming if the NYSE B P reverses up near a 6% from its low. When we reverse up 6% from a low then it will be back to X and back on offense (in football terms) Btw pnf isn't the only tool I use but it guides you on strength and trend

Typically Dorsey's pnf is more reliable but that doesn't mean Stockcharts can't reverse upward first for a buy or sell.
Without going into it all a reversal up O just means we are now on defense and a sell is more serious of a correction. Take the trial and you would understand it more the difference between Stockcharts and Dorsey

TM

[dasein]

Hi TM - thanks for keeping us posted - an FYI - I asked someone from Dorsey's company about Stockcharts vs DW and he said it doesnt really matter much which charts you use, and said that SC default boxes work pretty well - I think it really is the way you read the chart and perhaps that is where DW gives you the edge. so far the negative indicators are accumulating for equities but we havent seen a real breakdown yet. as to gold, it looks like we will only get bounces from here to your (?) target low time frame in 2014. Awful but quite possible.....

[tradermama]

Hi TM - thanks for keeping us posted -

an FYI - I asked someone from Dorsey's company about Stockcharts vs DW and he said it doesnt really matter much which charts you use, and said that SC default boxes work pretty well - I think it really is the way you read the chart and perhaps that is where DW gives you the edge.

so far the negative indicators are accumulating for equities but we havent seen a real breakdown yet. as to gold, it looks like we will only get bounces from here to your (?) target low time frame in 2014. Awful but quite possible.....

Hi Karen,
Yes it's true you can change the default to any box sizes. That is a matter of preference whether you want to use the default or not. But Dorsey site offers more than stockcharts when it comes to their market indicators .....and there are also similar indicators I'm sure you can figure out on stockcharts too. I haven't found anywhere on stockcharts that it is clear where the term of RS (relative strength) on a stock/index that shows up unless you spend time on it to figure it out..through a calculation that is identical to theirs. It's hard to explain it unless you go and take the trial. I'm sure if one spends time on stockcharts they might be able to come up with similar things but on Dorsey's site and their charts it's all there. There trend changes are clearer imo and when you combine that with regular TA it just adds more conviction. because it's more of a ratio of buys to sells rather than drawing TA trendlines. All I know is it works for me and I have stopped it on and off over 12 yrs thinking I would just use stockcharts but the more I have understood over the past few years the more valuable I found it. And I'm still learning new things they have...I'm a subscriber to both too. And again, it's not a trading tool. Yet, he has taught that the number one thing a trader/investor should do is manage risk. There are things that are taught there that stockcharts don't because his site is all about managing risk in different steps. An example, when picking a stock, find a strong leading sector that has at least 3 out of 5 of the attributes , the more attributes the stronger it is, then the same for stocks within the sector. Attributes are, RS to X, RS to Buy, positive trends, pnf buy signals and it's all on their charts where you don't have to hunt or figure out things.

When I got those RS changes on gold/gdx I posted it and warned about it and the trend change despite regular TA showing arguments that could swing both ways. For me it was a big warning on gold and gdx when the trend changed to negative in Dec. Combining pnf with regular ta kept me on the sidelines this year with metals/miners except for 2 times...with nugt..1 time I thought I'd try the counter trend..which I was playing with a small amount and the other time was when Gdx got it's first buy signal in months...which failed and I immediately got out. But I was playing small amounts only because of the negative trend and the more miners that kept changing to RS to sells told me it would last longer. And it did. So this year I've been in equities and just recently I'm now out due to the short term warnings I got with now confirmation of the nyse bp turning to O. And because of the Euro and Oil having a recent negative trend changes, I'm playing euo and ery. For me I couldn't do this with just using stockcharts pnf. Sorry if I'm not clear but unless you go through it to see, it's hands down with Dorsey for me. I guess what I'm saying it's not just looking at a pnf buy or sell signal, there's more to it. If you were to ask that same person from Dorsey's site which is better overall when it comes to the pnf picture (not just pnf buy/sell signals) I'd be surprise if they say it didn't matter..LOL!

I'm not here to debate which is better but to help those try something that they might find a lot more useful than just using stockcharts. For me, I only use Dorsey's but I combine with regular ta too. I'm sure we all have our preferences too. Like I said it's a free 3 week trial and no credit card needed so I don't see the harm if someone wants to see for themselves which one they prefer. If one did subscribe it's $50 a month (mine includes mutual funds so I think it's like $25-30 otherwise) and they have education there plus ideas, daily updates and forum. For professionals who manage other people's money it's more and they get more for it.

Have a good day

TM

[Sentient Being]

You folks are going to talk me into getting back into TA again. Ugh....... I did place a buy-stop order on GDX into the gap of about a week back. That order is still hanging out there not triggered. This AM it appears that Gold is once again falling away and there is no danger I'll be long anytime soon. if gold continues to drop I'm not sure where I would be tempted to place another buy. I'm sold on the idea that the time to own gold based on fundamental issues (such as the US debt bubble and inflation) is coming. However I don't really see the fear, the inflation, the rising interest rates on government debt, Government spending squeezed by a rising cost to maintain it's massive debt, nations afraid to lend to the US.....all the issues that might cause folks to flock to Gold. It's a fundamental case for buying gold that's looking for some facts to support it. William Devane may be happy buying gold but I don't want to own it when it's making historic collapses. It can take a long time for a bubble to break and for a fundamental view of what's going to make gold the place to be to actually happen. Gold may be the thing to short but those pumping it as a long have a tough sell right now.

[dougie]

indeed
however i am not sure that I want to be contrarian about all the individual buying in ASia
seems to me folks behaviour has changed. will they all turn around and sell if prices go lower? Doubt it. they will buy more IMO
How much buying does the public in China and Japan and India need to do before phyical gold really is in short supply?

You folks are going to talk me into getting back into TA again. Ugh.......

I did place a buy-stop order on GDX into the gap of about a week back. That order is still hanging out there not triggered. This AM it appears that Gold is once again falling away and there is no danger I'll be long anytime soon. if gold continues to drop I'm not sure where I would be tempted to place another buy.

I'm sold on the idea that the time to own gold based on fundamental issues (such as the US debt bubble and inflation) is coming.

However I don't really see the fear, the inflation, the rising interest rates on government debt, Government spending squeezed by a rising cost to maintain it's massive debt, nations afraid to lend to the US.....all the issues that might cause folks to flock to Gold. It's a fundamental case for buying gold that's looking for some facts to support it. William Devane may be happy buying gold but I don't want to own it when it's making historic collapses. It can take a long time for a bubble to break and for a fundamental view of what's going to make gold the place to be to actually happen.

Gold may be the thing to short but those pumping it as a long have a tough sell right now.