14 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

Breadth in the PM and XAU stocks continued to be very weak last week, so next week might be shaping up to be a poor one for the gold bugs.

With the price pattern playing out like an Elliott 2nd wave of minute/minor degree from the early May highs, the downside target if a we move down in a 3rd wave from here is around $1201. It's not likely that we'll get there in a week, but a challenge of the 50% retracement level seen on the chart at $1302 wouldn't at all be surprising. Upside resistance remains at the 20 day EMA which is tracking at around $1415.

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 25 May 2013 - 09:55 PM.

[Russ]

Silver looks to have found good support, note the doji on the weekly chart which is a good sign of a low. I think it unlikely Gold will go down with out Silver going down. Weekly and Monthly charts below...

Edited by Russ, 26 May 2013 - 08:21 AM.

[Russ]

XAU Advance Decline lines are showing positive divergence, the double bottom on the weekly chart looks similar to the double bottom last year before the summer rally took hold...

Daily XAU
http://www.masterema...eclineChart.bmp


Weekly XAU
http://www.masterema...eclineChart.bmp

Edited by Russ, 26 May 2013 - 08:37 AM.

[Russ]

The bullish case for Gold by Mike Maloney, note the major uptrend channel support at 14:33 on the Video, whether this trendline holds longer term is debatable but for now it should provide some support...

http://www.youtube.c...fG4WvJPs#t=873s

Edited by Russ, 26 May 2013 - 09:37 AM.

[SemiBizz]

Breadth in the PM and XAU stocks continued to be very weak last week, so next week might be shaping up to be a poor one for the gold bugs.

Fib

Actually, I'm thinking this GLD chart is starting to look like early April ahead of the Slam and we will see another big SEPARATION DECLINE with another BIG GAP DOWN. When gold failed to break the "old low" of 1525 and couldn't test it, it set up another big leg down targeting 1250. My target is a little lower than that, but we'll see.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[Geomean]

My monthly $XAU and $HUI charts show a decline to and bounce off the .786 harmonic from the 2008 lows and at some very LT support levels. The TD SEQ set up 9 is not complete --it will print a 6 this month. but it has previously printed the absolute lows before signal completion on these charts. But it will be a few more months before the picture is clear. Price projections on $XAU range between the present lows and @ 14% lower (@85). The weekly charts already print TDSEQ and TDCombo countdown completions, and next week will likely print a TDSEQ buy set up 9, so there could be a IT bottom here. But another spike down is not out of the picture yet, and won't be until we see a price flip. The daily charts are similarly mixed, with a TDSEQ buy countdown complete (Perl's variation used when there are two prior TDSEQ buy set ups with the countdown 13 count starting on the completion of the first 9 set up), but it could be inapplicable as the range of the second 9 count set up is 2.04x the range of the prior one which highlights momentum), a TDCOMBO buy signal and a second TDSEQ countdown in progress, all of which were sufficient to generate a bounce off of the price projection @ 97.43. However, there was a price flip down Friday on the daily, but the Goslin trigger is flashing a buy. The Cycle gurus I follow all say cycle wise it is a good point for an inflection of some kind. Many of the individual names are giving bottoming signals. But the charts generate fairly clear win/ stop loss pivot, etc parameters, calculations. Newmont and Royal Gold seem the best of the bunch Another thing seems fairly clear, -- next week should tell the tale.

Edited by Geomean, 27 May 2013 - 08:57 AM.

[fib_1618]

...whether this trendline holds longer term is debatable

Time and scale can provide different opinions, but when different forecasting methodologies start to compliment each other, it's something worth noting.

Fib

[Russ]

Fib, You are using a different trendline than Mike Maloney, he has choosen to go for the channel from the extreme tops from 1999 to 2011 vs. you using just the lows from 2001 to 2005, what does your book say on that? As I have stated on my blog, 2014 looks like it will be the low but things seem oversold now and the sentiment is bullish as my other post on here notes. One caveat is that I have a trend for the US dollar index to peak in August, so that could keep gold down for a couple of more months. There is a strong correlation between the yen/dollar and gold especially from last October.

Edited by Russ, 28 May 2013 - 07:38 AM.

[fib_1618]

he has chosen to go for the channel from the extreme tops from 1999 to 2011 vs. you using just the lows from 2001 to 2005, what
does your book say on that?

Yes, a weekly chart on a logarithmic scale, the true channel of which is shown below.

Note the break below the rising bottoms line and last weeks snapback to this same violation.

Note also the throw over of the trend channel at the 2011 highs just as my chart shows above.

Again, time and scale can provide different opinions, but bias has no place when being a technician.

Fib

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&st=1997-10-01&en=(today)&i=p75593510149&a=304171298&r=1369750874273.png

[Russ]

The trend-line on the last chart is only a 2 point line which is not that valid, as 3 or more are preferred, you sure must know that?