13 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

I suggested on Friday that a wave III up in Newmont is unlikely anytime soon. The reason is that the MACD hit new lows on this decline, that is a lower low than seen during the entire 2001 - 2006 bull move. They sold the crap out of this stock in the last few weeks. Given that NEM is 15% of the HUI weighting and that FCX and GFI don't look much better, we need to pay attention and understand what is going on here.

BTW, GFI (16.5% of the HUI weighting), FCX (12% of HUI) and HMY (6% of HUI) all look the same on this decline. They all were sold heavily enough to have the MACD undercut last year's lows. The question is why? And what happened to wave III here?



I like to trade what I see. I also like to invest in what I see. And right now there are some questions here regarding NEM and other gold seniors. It suggests that we are in for a lengthy correction and that once NEM bottoms here in the near term, the bounce into the 50s somewhere may best be traded.

Am I surprised? Yeah, totally. Could I be wrong about this? Yeah. But I wouldn't bet on it just yet.

cheers,

john

[ageka]

Timewise we should bottom the next 18 days I think the up move will give us an indication whether it is the boondocks for 3-7 months or not

[SilentOne]

Hi Ageka, I am still looking for a turn in late March. This is based on a gann 113 trading day cycle for the HUI. It can mark highs or lows, but I am thinking a low. We'll see. Gold looks lower into late March/April. I am thinking that we get a period of gold outperformance much like 2004 and a "B" wave up in the gold indices. I suspect Steve Swink is right in his market take. It's not a common view, however technically it is setting up. The weekly MACD sell signals are confirmation IMO. Please let me know if you can what is developing in 7s gold cycles. cheers, john

[bobalou]

s 1 ,thanks . but ,I'm looking more at the 04 brake,why ? because of the start of etf in gold ,,now a etf in silver.about the same ?

[SilentOne]

Hi lou, The gold ETF gave the HUI and XAU a "B" wave rise in its 18 month correction (2004 - 2005). I could see the silver ETF doing the same thing here in this correction. cheers, john

[bobalou]

hi john ,I'm thinking nen could get 50 w/ options exp.

[ageka]

Hi Ageka,

I am still looking for a turn in late March. This is based on a gann 113 trading day cycle for the HUI. It can mark highs or lows, but I am thinking a low. We'll see.

Gold looks lower into late March/April. I am thinking that we get a period of gold outperformance much like 2004 and a "B" wave up in the gold indices. I suspect Steve Swink is right in his market take. It's not a common view, however technically it is setting up. The weekly MACD sell signals are confirmation IMO.

Please let me know if you can what is developing in 7s gold cycles.

cheers,

john

In a perfect world governed by statistics the next will be a low on march 29 th for the
gold in dollars continuous price as measured in daily candlesticks with a 107 day cycle average
with roughly a 3 sigma of 12 days
The low does not necessarily have to be (much ) lower then today
An intraday lower then up to now would qualify

By happenstance that day is Fibo day 55 and a new moon if I did not miscalculate again

[vitaminm]

I suggested on Friday that a wave III up in Newmont is unlikely anytime soon. The reason is that the MACD hit new lows on this decline, that is a lower low than seen during the entire 2001 - 2006 bull move. They sold the crap out of this stock in the last few weeks. Given that NEM is 15% of the HUI weighting and that FCX and GFI don't look much better, we need to pay attention and understand what is going on here.

BTW, GFI (16.5% of the HUI weighting), FCX (12% of HUI) and HMY (6% of HUI) all look the same on this decline. They all were sold heavily enough to have the MACD undercut last year's lows. The question is why? And what happened to wave III here?



I like to trade what I see. I also like to invest in what I see. And right now there are some questions here regarding NEM and other gold seniors. It suggests that we are in for a lengthy correction and that once NEM bottoms here in the near term, the bounce into the 50s somewhere may best be traded.

Am I surprised? Yeah, totally. Could I be wrong about this? Yeah. But I wouldn't bet on it just yet.

cheers,

john

NEM

http://www.bullchart...em&weekly=false

[senorBS]

Bueno chance a-b-c decline in NEM bottomed just above 200-day mvg avg last week, a close norte of 50 increases those odds, Senor likes the trading. BSing away Senor

[senorBS]

If NEM can close the week above 50 Senor will like that mucho, it odes look like an a-b-c decline is done against daily and weekly charts - bottoming just above 200-day mvg avg. BS RULES Senor