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Intermediate calls Update


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#1 EntropyModel

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Posted 18 August 2006 - 01:05 PM

Hi All.
This is an update to my Intermediate( multi week-month) Calls. To recap those so far this year -

1. March-April my work called for a Intermediate top around 1320 SPX.

For details see this thread:

This one had a nice chart to show the expected decline( scroll down the post past the Short term stuff).

http://www.traders-t...?...ic=50501=

===>"Intermediate(weeks-months) - Despite the supposed 'bearish' sentiment, I don't see much possible upside..I expect a major IT downturn below 1320...see chart above."

****Note my forecast of 2006 -
===>"Long Term (month-year)- Not expecting a severe bear market this year, possible correction aka 1994....but looking to 2007-2008 for major bear market."

*NOTE. This forecast remains unchanged as well, I might want to 'tweak' it in a few months as we get towards the end of this year. *


2. Then in my last post in June 16 my analysis called for that down move to end, and for a multi-week to multi month rally, 5 to 10% on Spx.

For details see this thread:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=54810


===>"so as far as I'm concerned we are now building the base here for an IT rally as I described, this being now a classic divergance bottom, not a V-reversal".

We did get a divergance bottom with a retest in mid-July, and we've gotten about 7% so far.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. This post is to pass on FWIW that my work is calling for an end to that IT upmove in (2) i.e that the up move is as good as done in PRICE, and a multi-month down

move is going to take place. Note I am saying PRICE, TIME wise it could start now, or we could chop around these prices for

another another month is my guestimate. My work longer term work doesn't try to identifiy exact timing, I do that with my shorter term trading

For exampe it took until early May from my March_april top call(1) for the spx to finally top out around 1320.

In this case I will also say, I am referring to both the Nasdaq and SPX .

How will I know I'm wrong?
This is the most important question. In this case if the SPX moves above 1320, which is just 2% away I am wrong on what I'm thinking.
Equivalent on the Nasdaq I would is about 2210, which is about 3% above.


I don't have time to detail the reasons for these calls, just wanted to pass it along.


Edited by entropy, 18 August 2006 - 01:11 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#2 hamakua

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Posted 18 August 2006 - 01:14 PM

Mark, I admire your work the most on this BB. Respectfully, Hamakua

#3 greenie

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Posted 18 August 2006 - 01:49 PM

Thanks !! Always appreciate your posts.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#4 denleo

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Posted 19 August 2006 - 09:42 AM

I love reading your work. You are saying that the market is about to enter a multi-month decline. Does your work suggest that S&P will break June-July lows? My view is that if we top here between now and Labor day, we will drop at least 10%. Please post more often. Denleo

#5 EntropyModel

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Posted 24 August 2006 - 10:52 AM

Thanks for the encouraging comments, I appreciate it guys.


You are saying that the market is about to enter a multi-month decline. Does your work suggest that S&P will break June-July lows? My view is that if we top here between now and Labor day, we will drop at least 10%.

Please post more often.


Dennis I am really not confident on that one, but yes a break of the lows is strongly 'suggested', but maybe only enough to washout stops below kind of thing before a significant rally.

Normally I base my calls on a combination of price pattern, cycles, technicals and sentiment. In this case technicals and sentiment do NOT support my calls at the moment( but nor do they counter it), but my price pattern and cycle work stronger signals this multi-month down move.

Usually that sitations end up with alot more 'range bound chop' to align the technicals and sentiment a bit better for a down move. So that's why I think another 4-6 weeks of up/down range say 1250 to 1320 is highly likely before an attempt to break those lows.


I will try to post on here some closer timeframe swing work as well as this longer term stuff. Right now I have us clearly in a downswing over the next week, with a move to 1280, maybe a rally attempt, then a bigger move down to 1260 to close alot of open gaps.....then likely another multi-week runup...seeing how that plays out will allow me to better estimate targets.



To summerize right now I have -

1. Intermediate multi-month topping or topped below 1320....possible move below july lows, then a major rally from there.

2. Swing (multi-day to weeks) currently DOWN, to test 1280, then 1260, then turning back up for another multi-week runup attempt.

Edit - OK just did a quick chart to show roughly what I'm thinking right now, but of course subject to new information it may change.



http://img55.imagesh...20/aug23mz7.gif



Posted Image


Mark.

Edited by entropy, 24 August 2006 - 11:06 AM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#6 PorkLoin

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Posted 24 August 2006 - 11:20 AM

Very nice, Mark. I agree with your multi-month red scenario. Most other indices are confiming a good possibility of this, IMO. From the June low, if we're getting action as in your pinkish-purple swing path, then it would look good to me as "ABC" up, "X" down now, to likely be followed by another ABC, etc. The structure of this decline should give some good clues. I will say that things are looking too "textbook" perfect here, though, and it makes me suspicious. I appreciate your clear and thorough presentation. Best, Doug

#7 EntropyModel

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Posted 06 September 2006 - 11:19 PM

We printed SPX 1315 before todays reversal. I was getting a little nervous there, but 1320 held [ Nasdaq reversed from exactly 2210], which is very significant in my pattern analysis - I don't make the numbers up, and price doesn't lie, it had every chance for last 2 weeks to prove the pattern wrong but didn't...tiny 1% range for 2 weeks chopping around from 1300 to 1315 'feeling like we were going to break out', but not doing so. This must now be the start of a significant Swing down along the line of the pink I had on the chart [ delayed a couple of weeks, but price essentially unchanged from that setup], if instead we retrace back above 1315, then it will break my setup. Mark.

Edited by entropy, 06 September 2006 - 11:24 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#8 EntropyModel

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Posted 08 October 2006 - 05:29 PM

The IT position trade (3) setup was broken when the SPX broke 1315 level indicated in my last post. -
**Posted Sep 6 2006, 11:19 PM ..."if instead we retrace back above 1315, then it will break my setup."

I didn't specifty a trade, but a rough average entry on SPX on Sept 6 was 1305, so 1315 is just 10pts, however the loss on the Q's was a bit more painful. This seems a crazy tight stop for a position trade, but there was a specific price pattern setup for the trade, and once it failed on a breach of 1315 it was broken.


I have another setup which is the purpose of this post. I will give specific entry/exit' this time for clarity, as also I'm going to use the Q's due to the intermarket divergence that exists.

4. Entered Position Trade Short Q - 41.4 Stop 43


Note. These 'trades' just try to represent my IT market view clearly. Also to reiterate - this is likely multiweek, not short term, and It could take a couple of days to get going - but we should be declining very soon here - so I have a mental 'time stop' on this trade, but I will post any exit.







Looking out a bit, I said I might change my forecast for end 2006 posted at start of year ( see above posts) -

"****forecast of 2006 -
===>"Long Term (month-year)- Not expecting a severe bear market this year, possible correction aka 1994....but looking to 2007-2008 for major bear market."


I've said all along for this year it would 'try to look lke 1994' and my idea has been the market must get everyone convinced that somthing like 1994 is what playing out. I also hope I've been clear that I don't believe the market is anything like 1994, that we are far more like 1970-1980 type market.



What has been very difficult to fathom is how the market would go about this tast with a 4 year cylce low expected july-Nov 2006. SO I also proposed a possible 4year cycle inversion, which I haven't heard anyone else suggest, but it seems to me that is very possible due to semi-efficient markets.



My thinking has been all along, that sentiment will remain too bearish for a 4 year cycle decline until the 'everyone knows' period for the low is past, and we are nearly there, with the market perversly rising to new highs.



The effect has been to leave many asking - is the 4 year low behind us already and a 1994 style breakout started?



This is exactly what is need to put in the top, but I am not sure whether the job is done,I doubt it infact, it likely will be necessary to breakout more, or for the 'bearish 4 year cycle window' to close into say Nov/Dec 2006 before 'everyone knows its safe for the next 2 years', therefore allowing the bullish sentiment for a top.



So I haven't really change the view posted -

I still don't expecting a severe bear market this year -

The 'possible correction aka 1994' has gone in my view, and now the market is trying to look like the breakout.

As for 2007-2008 I continue to believe we see a major bear market." i.e. a 4 year cycle inversion.





Mark.





Edited by entropy, 08 October 2006 - 05:38 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#9 EntropyModel

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Posted 02 November 2006 - 03:33 PM

The Q's have chopped since I posted this 3 weeks ago and got very close to the stop I put at 43 which was key resistance, but turned back at 42.9 If it gets there again it will go through and stop this out. This afternoon were back near my entry .... and were at key support right now with my Day-Trade indicators showing a consildation for another move down, so this ought to be 'it' to move this trade positive in the next week or I will look to stop it out myself ( time stop). However, that is only because I see a 50/50 chance of one last move up to marginal new highs to complete the IT weekly move, but I want to remain short the IT trend in case the other 50% occurs and we just go straight down. I am alot more confident now that this will be a failed breakout because so many reliable IT indicators are lining up now. Also, Sentiment is now shifting as I predicted, as 'everyone now knows the 4year cycle low is in', and the 'this looks just like 1994' ...'meem' is spreading like wildfire as expected. Mark(OEX) posted a good measure of that confidence yesterday on FF from Mark Hulberts index. I also am seeing the same extreme confidence in two other indepedent surveys of money managers that are little known. However, retail investors are still a little tentative to be fully long( though they are throwing themselves at this 'dip' the last 3 days so the jig is nearly up). We may need another new highs to draw them fully in, but marginal if we do I believe before an IT downmove. Mark.

Edited by entropy, 02 November 2006 - 03:35 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#10 EntropyModel

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Posted 07 November 2006 - 09:24 PM

FYI - I moved the stop from 43 to 43.5 to filter out any election related volatility. I don't have time or desire to update 'real-time' for a weekly position trade so end of day will have to do, actually its updating stops 'real time' that is the biggest pain in the rear for posting any trades and why I don't post shorter timeframe stuff anymore. Mark.
Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB