This is an update to my Intermediate( multi week-month) Calls. To recap those so far this year -
1. March-April my work called for a Intermediate top around 1320 SPX.
For details see this thread:
This one had a nice chart to show the expected decline( scroll down the post past the Short term stuff).
http://www.traders-t...?...ic=50501=
===>"Intermediate(weeks-months) - Despite the supposed 'bearish' sentiment, I don't see much possible upside..I expect a major IT downturn below 1320...see chart above."
****Note my forecast of 2006 -
===>"Long Term (month-year)- Not expecting a severe bear market this year, possible correction aka 1994....but looking to 2007-2008 for major bear market."
*NOTE. This forecast remains unchanged as well, I might want to 'tweak' it in a few months as we get towards the end of this year. *
2. Then in my last post in June 16 my analysis called for that down move to end, and for a multi-week to multi month rally, 5 to 10% on Spx.
For details see this thread:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=54810
===>"so as far as I'm concerned we are now building the base here for an IT rally as I described, this being now a classic divergance bottom, not a V-reversal".
We did get a divergance bottom with a retest in mid-July, and we've gotten about 7% so far.
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3. This post is to pass on FWIW that my work is calling for an end to that IT upmove in (2) i.e that the up move is as good as done in PRICE, and a multi-month down
move is going to take place. Note I am saying PRICE, TIME wise it could start now, or we could chop around these prices for
another another month is my guestimate. My work longer term work doesn't try to identifiy exact timing, I do that with my shorter term trading
For exampe it took until early May from my March_april top call(1) for the spx to finally top out around 1320.
In this case I will also say, I am referring to both the Nasdaq and SPX .
How will I know I'm wrong?
This is the most important question. In this case if the SPX moves above 1320, which is just 2% away I am wrong on what I'm thinking.
Equivalent on the Nasdaq I would is about 2210, which is about 3% above.
I don't have time to detail the reasons for these calls, just wanted to pass it along.
Edited by entropy, 18 August 2006 - 01:11 PM.