11 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

I can name several juniors that I follow and own which have flipped to outright sells since January. The recent climb in the metals is having very limited influence on the junior mining space. I don't have an index with technical indicators to show this, but I can see it in the stuff I follow. I have even had to let go a few positions recently, ones I was trying to be patient with.

To sum up, there will be much better buying opportunities ahead, and you should refrain from chasing stuff. There is clear and present danger in this sector.

I expect gold and silver to rally to an important interim top very soon. It could take till mid-March, but then maybe not. You have been warned!

One thing I notice when looking at Frank Barbera's junior indices is that in 2004, they peaked after the HUI and XAU did in Dec. 2003. In other words they peaked with gold and silver in the early part of 2004. Are we approaching the same market risk as back then?

Frank Barbera's FSJG Index™ Review









I have been playing the juniors primarily since the fall. I am currently long the metals GLD, SLV and CEF from Jan. I'll look to exit my longer term funds and remaining positions in the coming weeks.

cheers,

john

[dougie]

that has been my general sense but on the other hand my portfolio is at an all time high and it is 50% juniours

have a gander at a non-jr;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=GG,uu%5Bh...$spx%5D%5D
pretty clear we are about to launch even if it is a 5th wave

[SilentOne]

dougie,

pretty clear we are about to launch even if it is a 5th wave

I wouldn't assume anything here. I have placed an order to exit my long term overseas PM fund today. I've held the position and added to it since 2003 with little trading. I'm more confident that gold/silver can press higher and I won't risk playing the shares anymore.

Today and Monday (Feb. 9 or 12th) offers a turn date. It looks like a high from my perspective.

I am no longer bullish into March for the miners. The metals may press higher into March, but the shares look to lag. Just look at how things have progressed from the Dec. high. In early Dec. gold printed $650 and the HUI 362, and now gold is breaking above $660 and I doubt the HUI will get above 350.

cheers,

john

[dharma]

interesting! silent one! you gotta love all the factors that make this a market. i have probably 10 juniors and they have all launched. i see the march date, which comes around the equinox, which was an important time for gann. for me if it is an impulse than we are on our way to higher highs, if it is a B then more trading range. i tend to doubt the later, although it is a probability. w/ that chart that i mentioned and the similar look to 79 gold bull i think 800s on deck. i am holding a full boat. dharma

[dougie]

Silent: can you elaborate on your concerns here? HUI:gold ration is one you mentioned but if you look back at he last big gold bull the same thing happened intially

[SilentOne]

dougie,

Silent: can you elaborate on your concerns here?
HUI:gold ration is one you mentioned but if you look back at he last big gold bull the same thing happened intially

This market is setting up for failure. Back in the fall I was willing to play it long thinking this rally would get back to retest the highs. Instead, I now think the HUI, XAU and metals will fail at resistance (eg. HUI 350 gold $675). And even if I am wrong about these levels, what do you think is going to happen as we now enter into these resistance levels? Lots of chop. The juniors have been great fun the last few months but that is now souring too.

There is an astro turn coming up for today/Monday. I think I will book profits and step aside.

cheers,

john

[dougie]

thanks: i think your caution is warranted here ; the jrs last two-three days have been sickly. money flows not good.

[dougie]

reisstance at 350: can you show me that: sorry to be so slow Silent: the weekly HUI macd is crossing up this week. it has been a pretty good LT signal...

[Russ]

These ones don't appear to be rolling over...

http://stockcharts.c...4199&r=3382.png

http://stockcharts.c...57228979131.png

http://stockcharts.c...2655&r=1439.png

[dharma]

i am a vedic astrologer, and have been since 92. yes, these astro dates, 9-12 are important. but so is the new moon on the 17th which should see the trend up take over and accelerate. all in the fullness of time. one thing i have learned in 28 yrs of doing this, trending markets make more $$$ than one can imagine. this is a bull and time will bull this out! dharma