8 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

I would not be very long material or gold stocks here. Gold/silver stocks will get dragged down by an inevitable renewed commodity selloff.

The chart below depicts the % of material stocks that are on PnF buy signals. It happens to be a very good indicator of sentiment. So load the boat/mortgage the farm etc. when this is in the 30-40% range, and get the hell out of dodge when it is above 80! Look to the left of the chart and see how the March 2005 and May 2006 highs coincided with the peak readings.



cheers,

john

[dougie]

indeed teh intial sell off may pull gold with it...

[dharma]

john, i always read what you have to say. and i respect it. so, i have a question. in elliott theory, wave 3 is the recognition phase, and i believe after this little correction we will be in 3of 3. so, my question is might not sentiment indicators even get more bullish or more over done as this wave progresses? thanks for posting, dharma

[mdwllc]

john, i always read what you have to say. and i respect it. so, i have a question. in elliott theory, wave 3 is the recognition phase, and i believe after this little correction we will be in 3of 3. so, my question is might not sentiment indicators even get more bullish or more over done as this wave progresses? thanks for posting, dharma

dharma: First, I am not an EW guy..[to me there's always another wave type that's pulled out of nowhere to justify a move that is different than projected although, I believe it has an important perspective and input]. To be honest you're the only EW person I've seen indicating this is completing a 2 and anticipating a wave 3...all the others I'm reading indicates we're at a 4 preparing for a wave 5 down. I have absolutely no idea which is correct, so stand by your analysis!. Personally, my cycle work indicate a major move upward will take place later this year and, in particular 2008. In the meantime, I've cut back my exposure to 25% until later this year. Regards MDW

[SilentOne]

dharma,

in elliott theory, wave 3 is the recognition phase, and i believe after this little correction we will be in 3of 3. so, my question is might not sentiment indicators even get more bullish or more over done as this wave progresses?

I'm not entirely sure about the HUI count, but I don't see a major wave up beginning here (eg. a 3-3). What concerns me for gold though is that it is doing a "B" wave correction (May - June was "A" down). It fits with what I am seeing in the PM sector and we should see a "C" wave decline for gold and something similar for the HUI to finish this correction. I don't see getting bullish again until late summer '07. Until then I plan to stand aside.

Gold and silver may grind higher, and simpy leave the miners behind. I'm not willing to speculate on that anymore.

cheers,

john

[dougie]

are you referring to HUI or gold with that 4rth wave up count: if HUI, cannot be. overlap.

john, i always read what you have to say. and i respect it. so, i have a question. in elliott theory, wave 3 is the recognition phase, and i believe after this little correction we will be in 3of 3. so, my question is might not sentiment indicators even get more bullish or more over done as this wave progresses? thanks for posting, dharma

dharma: First, I am not an EW guy..[to me there's always another wave type that's pulled out of nowhere to justify a move that is different than projected although, I believe it has an important perspective and input]. To be honest you're the only EW person I've seen indicating this is completing a 2 and anticipating a wave 3...all the others I'm reading indicates we're at a 4 preparing for a wave 5 down. I have absolutely no idea which is correct, so stand by your analysis!. Personally, my cycle work indicate a major move upward will take place later this year and, in particular 2008. In the meantime, I've cut back my exposure to 25% until later this year. Regards MDW

[Russ]

John, Thanks for posting this chart, this is excellent analysis. No doubt some serious sparks are about to fly in the next couple of weeks. RSI is rolling over already on that chart. Russ

[Russ]

Second sober thought This weekly chart certainly allows for more rally here based on past relations with the levels and indicators shown. bpmate could get back to 90 and rsi could get to 70 or more. R

http://stockcharts.c...1719&r=8863.png

[Russ]

If $bpmate breaks support at about 78 which is equivalent to Senor BS's new post giving hui 339 as his stop then it looks like gold will start to go down hard.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPMATE&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p05319935573&r=3176.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p81835305722&r=3847.png