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The Inger Letter "Waterfall Decline Next?" 3/10/7


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

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Posted 10 March 2007 - 12:41 PM

Gene Inger's Daily Briefing. . . . for Monday, March 12, 2007: Good evening; Payroll relief optimism . . . may find the bulls newly in the unemployment lines, if it develops that they extremely exuberant confidence (we have no objection, but even if they get it higher short-run, that doesn't obviate concerns about profitability or values) for this market. Other issues run a gamut currently; from pondering whether visits by a feisty Treasury Secretary to China would prevent financial erosion beyond the daily; which we projected a week ago would likely be the case after the initially-forecast hits to the market; to the forthcoming 'Triple Witching Expiration'; to sub-prime rumor of major money-center institutions involved for too long with too much capital, in certain risky non-prime public companies. Having projected this move in the stock market from lengthy distribution as techs slid back in January, the actual broad-market top preceded the downside breakaway. We also clearly indicated last weekend that we'd likely get a rebound before new selling. We'll explore that and more in our premier week audio-video Daily Briefing, which is also going to include a daily-weekly and in some cases monthly gander at the charts. This is the first couple days of our 'beta' video-cast, and we'll expand on some areas, as well as questions for PC vs. MAC users (no issues really) a bit later in this report. I do wish to note, that where technicals allow we'll do the Daily Briefing in video each trading evening, and contemplate improving the displays as we become familiar with what can be done. More on this later, and as the technology evolves this Spring and Summer. Due to market volatility, we decided to rush this into service ahead of plans; so that's why we hope you realize that while greatly improved, there's more coming. MarketCast (intraday audio-email) commentary recognizes speculation ranges wide, and nervously, as to whether 'waterfall decline' could eventually follow the response to the nominally near-target 'nonfarm payroll' number. It is our thinking that any new 'relief rally' would be merely that as it evolves. And if it does break, rebound, and then head down; it could become 'testy'. Much of that may be in-store after the Expiration. Daily action . . . is thoroughly discussed in accompanying video and audio, which is premiered with last night's report. (Balance of comment reserved for ingerletter.com). For MarketCast members . . .this very modern and also entirely different approach, versus sending audio/video through email; additionally expands the scope of our very trading-oriented MarketCast service by allowing unique voice-over interactive charts. Quite frankly; we weren't quite ready to premier this, but given the market volatility as well as the enhanced charting and observational abilities it provides, we rushed daily efforts so as to provide improved capabilities during the period of increased volatility. Normally we'll obviate posting charts, in favor of 'interactive' live charting as we have the ability now to do voice-over chart analysis commentary starting with this week's last Daily Briefing video and audio reports. It's also provided to MarketCast members. Notes and FAQ's to all: Still in 'beta' for us and our Microsoft partner firm, so you may encounter intermittent abilities to access the site (try again later if that's so). FAQ's (for ingerletter.com). Now to the weekend Daily Briefing and audio-video MarketCast: Here's the link (reserved for ingerletter.com members; you're invited to join us). If you would like a quick sample you can also visit: www.myspace.com/stockseer More video? This is so unique that I have to share it though don't intend promoting a particular car. However, from what we've heard (can't confirm it) the upcoming BMW 335i twin-turbo Convertible (actually world's fastest and BMW's first retractable coupe hardtop), will be the first car in the world to incorporate (with the Navigation option) a very remarkable mapping system. Besides RTTI (real-time traffic information) that we already knew about (allows accidents or 'sig-alerts' to be communicated in real time, as well as suggests in the split-screen LCD panel an alternate route around problems that arise, which is a joint-venture with Clear Channel at no-cost to owners during the first four years of the 'BMW Assist' program); now it also updates maps via GPS from what we gather (forget the ancient approach of updating CD's or DVD's…antiquated). Ah; but here's the revolutionary part… you won't have to type-in an address to find it; as all you have to do is find your destination on your laptop or home or office PC just before you depart, using Google Maps. Then you email it to your car (car gets IP address of its own and automatically uploads your intended destination into the BMW iDrive/Nav/GPS/Assist system), and when you get in the car it's ready for you without any need to think about routes. If the system recognizes a traffic jam along the route, the RTTI will complement Google Maps, and visually display an alternate way to your particular destination. We thought it was so cool, that (members will like the video). Bits & Bytes . . . provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers an assortment of technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech overall, or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P, plus ideas ingerletter.com thinks might merit further reflection. Apple (AAPL); Level 3 (LVLT); Intel (INTC); Texas Instruments (TXN), Microsoft (MSFT); Motorola (MOT); QPC Lasers (QPCI); LightPath (LPTH); Intel (INTC); PURE Bioscience (PURE); InkSure (INKS); Ionatron (IOTN) and Northrop (NOC); including additions to small groups monitored, as commented on via accompanying audio/video, in MarketCast and most ingerletter.com nightly Daily Briefing reports. We can't answer detailed questions for you (how could we; companies release what they will when they do; ditto for the Departments of Defense or Homeland Security); but these are topics previously explored as part of our assessment of advanced tech stocks; notably for key reasons: we view Directed Energy Weapons and all related or sector products, of any 'pure play' or high-power solid-state laser-related companies, as new potentially important 'disruptive technologies' to benefit the U.S. defense; they're important as anything else able to shift the world into 21st Century technology. If you do quote excerpts of our remarks anywhere on the internet, please respect our work; as we request mentioning it came from www.ingerletter.com . At the same time, please realize sending or posting our entire Daily to another investor isn't fair to us or members, unless done rarely only, so as to help enlighten an investor as to our work (that courtesy graciously appreciated). No web site is permitted to repost any Daily Briefing in it's entirety, in any routine way. A financial web site may request to receive a once-weekly partial excerpt of a Daily; frequently available on most Wednesdays. Members please note: we have no association with any publicly traded firm (never have had; never will), other than as shareholders, while trading from time to time as deemed necessary for personal reasons; especially once initial targets are reached. We may be right or wrong on a stock, but are not financial PR or IR, and have never, and will never, been compensated by a company, or their representatives, directly or indirectly, for coverage. Our opinions may be valid or invalid, but reflect our own view. Comments are interpretative speculative postulations, provided 'as is with all faults', and all risks, with no assurance about future performance of anything (markets or for stocks) in any way whatsoever. Personal necessity, irrespective of opinion on stocks, may periodically require buys or sells deemed appropriate or required, without notice. Scheduled Economic News Releases: Monday: · Treasury Budget. Tuesday: · Retail Sales; · Business Inventories. Wednesday: · Current Account Deficit; · Export / Import Prices; · Crude / Gasoline / Distillates inventories. Thursday: · Initial (weekly) Unemployment Claims; · NY Empire State Index; · Net Foreign Purchases; · Philly Fed. Friday: · CPI (Consumer Price Index); · Industrial Production; · Capacity Utilization; · Univ. of Michigan Sentiment-preliminary; · Triple Witching Expiration concludes. MOST BULLISH ECONOMISTS MYOPICALLY FOCUS ON NOMINALLY PERTINENT DATA In summary . . events continue reminding us of risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks on free peoples, by elements including organized terrorist forces in various countries. A world addressing terror threats continues, as domestic issues absorb us less as we focus on the Middle East crisis and World War III avoidance. Though few generally concurred for three years, our consistent view has been slow but persistent American growth isn't negative, allowing the protracted gradual growth without ancillary significantly high interest rate pressures. There's no truly-restrictive monetary policy; nor is there likely to be one, irrespective of oil-induced inflationary pressures. This is a continuing saga. Often we get a speculative phase later in a bull market, but increasingly towards the end of an overall rising phase. In our view, there has not been that degree of speculation, but that is a potential feature developing let us suggest somewhere in the years ahead, maybe later 2007-2010, barring disaster. McClellan Oscillator finds NYSE 'Mac' shuffling with intervening bull-bear fights that more recently are at -22 for the NYSE; and -27 on the NASDAQ, with complacency pervading ideas of sustainable extensions. It's also the case markets mostly ignored 'negative divergences' in big-caps once again; preparatory to this key (and probably failing) upside flailing run. In case anyone missed it; financials remain unimpressive. Issues continue including oil, terror; China, Pakistan, all the Middle East, Korea, and economics. As assessed for a couple weeks, extended rebounds were showing just exhaustion syndromes, and now without interpretation or forecast, increasingly negative action. We might add dubious confidence about liquidity and momentum. Let us know what you think of the revised service; as nothing is yet 'cast in stone' so if enough members don't like it, we'll reconsider; if they do we'll continue and improve from this point too. So far the comments are unanimously favorable! Hence we'll go with it and enhance the Service as quickly as feasible, as we outlined to members. p.s. all audio and video is © ingerletter.com and may not be redistributed without an acknowledgment that it was produced by and sourced from www.ingerletter.com . Enjoy the weekend! Gene Gene Inger, Publisher ~Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing™ (The Inger Letter daily analysis on www.ingerletter.com) ~Gene Inger’s MarketCast™ (Intraday audio updates emphasizing S&P futures and market action) Updates about 10 minutes after: the opening bell, 10 a.m. ET, noon, 3 p.m., with a nightly final issued at approximately 8 p.m. In times of volatility, an additional interim report update is frequently provided. Office address: E.E. Inger & Co., Inc. (The Inger Letter) 100 East Thousand Oaks Blvd., Suite 227, Thousand Oaks, CA 91360