I saw some posts earlier with Elliott Wave counts projecting breaks below 80 level in the dollar. While those counts may be correct, the chart below shows my preferred count. I prefer the more bullish interpretation as it fits better with my cycle analysis (posted earlier), the extreme bearish sentiment, and the position of Commercials. Also rhymes with position of the CRB, which appears to be pointing down hard after breaking down from terminal rising wedge (also posted earlier).
Still can't rule out retest/break of the lows - if we get that, I'll be buying more.
If dollar strength develops as expected it may continue to weigh on metals. I'm still expecting a possible tradable low in gold contract around the May 30 (+ or - a day or two).
Kimston
Here's a zoom of the last few months.
