Kimston
Dollar Crash?
Started by
Kimston
, May 27 2007 08:57 PM
4 replies to this topic
#1
Kimston
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Posted 27 May 2007 - 08:57 PM
With all the talk about a dollar crash pending based on some perceived bearish news, I thought I would drop by the Blog Pulse site and see what turned up with a search on "dollar crash". The graph below looks about right to me given the pattern that has developed is a falling wedge that looks about done. I think the basing should be done by mid/late June and then it's gonna be interesting to watch the fireworks to the upside.
Kimston
Kimston
#2
Woody
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Posted 28 May 2007 - 08:13 AM
Kimston, are you long the Dollar with Futures and Options? Just curious, liquidity is an issue.
CW
#3
Kimston
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Posted 28 May 2007 - 09:02 AM
Kimston, are you long the Dollar with Futures and Options? Just curious, liquidity is an issue.
CW
Woody,
If you look at a few of my earlier posts on the dollar you'll see that I've accumulated a very large position near the lows, primarily Dec Calls, but also some Sep Calls, and June futures that I'll need to roll into Sep in the next few weeks. Negative sentiment is pervasive; yet patterns, E-Waves, cycles, and commercials are bullish. What more could you ask for in a trade set-up? It will be painful but manageable if it doesn't work out. Target before Dec calls expire is 91 area based on textbook falling wedge pattern. May be into 2008 before exceeding the 93 level. After that I will be looking for a shorting opportunity as the dollar will probably head much lower in 2009 - 2011 timeframe.
Kimston
#4
Islander
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Posted 28 May 2007 - 12:30 PM
NOT too fast. The GDP comes in this next week, and it could be a little lower than the Fed is comfortable with. Trades may think a rate cut is in the offing -- That will tend to pull the dollar down, and it could launch a gold rush. Just a thought.
Best, Islander
#5
Kimston
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Posted 28 May 2007 - 07:40 PM
NOT too fast. The GDP comes in this next week, and it could be a little lower than the Fed is comfortable with. Trades may think a rate cut is in the offing -- That will tend to pull the dollar down, and it could launch a gold rush. Just a thought.
Best, Islander
Islander,
My cycle work on the dollar indicates some kind of reversal day around 6/18. I'm thinking it may be a secondary low after a pullback, but who knows.
Kimston
