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The British Pound


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#1 SilentOne

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Posted 15 November 2007 - 05:00 AM

I posted this on my blog early in the week. You might want to keep an eye on it. Currencies will be important tells in the coming weeks. And an 80 week US dollar Hurst cycle low will mean a turning point for PMs. I'd say the turn has already been made, but time will tell.

Posted Image

If the USD has not already bottomed into an 18 month low, it very soon will. Given this, be very cautious with PMs. From the above chart, expect the £ to decline into a 9 year low (average cycle period seems to be 8 - 8.5 years).

Strategically, I do not want to hold British Pounds or Euros anymore. I sold some euros on Friday and will be cycling what I can into the USD from here.


cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#2 johngeorge

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Posted 15 November 2007 - 09:04 AM

Hello john
You've got company..................................
Best to you.

http://www.billcara....ov_15.html#more


Comments & Outlook
Yesterday, the US Bureau of Labor statistics reported that domestic producers, without food and energy factored in, ie, the core rate, received zero increase in prices in October for (i) finished goods, (ii) intermediate supplies, materials and components, and (iii) crude materials that need further processing. And, BLS says, the overall rate of increase was a piddling +0.1 pct, whereas the Wall St. consensus of economic experts (LOL) was a lofty +0.4 pct M/M. Interesting scenario: one liar to another.

What is happening to America? First the Liar Loans, and now the Liar Economy. The BLS ought to drop the "L" and just be known as b.s.

BLS says their methodology and sources are a secret, never to be compromised. I say it's voodoo economics at best.

For a while yesterday, the stock and bond markets lied as well. Prices lifted. But, if you want to see how the Dow 30 can drop -1,000 points in a day just look at that 30 minutes of trading leading up to the close. No voodoo there; just stock bids disappearing.

Today is the US Consumer Price Inflation. The reported numbers (today's CPI data) are also indicating that inflation is absent in the US, so you can expect more from the Liar Economy spin today. The Bulls will say that Prof. Bernanke is now free to drop rates once again.

We know that, of course, so we have to watch how the story is received by traders.

Regardless, it appears to me that the $USD is ready to rally back through the 76 level soon, and then through 77 next week. The Canadian Loonie, British Pound and Japanese Yen have been falling for five, four and three trading days respectively. The Euro at 146.69 at the close yesterday has only been held up close to its all-time record high of 147.19 because of the widespread enthusiasm for Gold, which is about to abate, significantly. So watch for the Euro to drop like the other non $USD currencies here, as the $USD. Since the Euro comprises almost half the $USD weighting, watch the $USD sling-shot higher.

What impact that has on stock prices is yet to be determined; however, I'm prepared to say that the Bulls will scream they are the recipients of the sword. They will soon be demanding a Fed rate of 4.25 pct to ease their pain.
Peace
johngeorge

#3 jabat

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Posted 15 November 2007 - 11:51 AM

John- been trying to get to your website- but keep reciving message "Sorry, but this board is currently unavailable. Please try again later.". have you moved? thanks,

#4 SilentOne

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Posted 15 November 2007 - 12:50 PM

John- been trying to get to your website- but keep reciving message "Sorry, but this board is currently unavailable. Please try again later.".
have you moved?

thanks,


jabat,

The site has moved.

Hit the Smartinvestment - smartinvestment.ca Forum Index link on the top left hand corner.

http://www.smartinve...ewforum.php?f=2

Go to the Stock discussion forum and you should see my blog.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain