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[TTHQ Staff]

Gene Inger's Daily Briefing . . . for WednesdayMarch 12, 2008:

 Good Evening;

 A 'seminal moment'  . . . of huge Fed liquidity beingpumped into mortgage markets, indeed should help get a 'bid' under some of these issues(irrespective of underlying, or actual 'worth' of agency-backed paper) and demand causedby investors switching from Treasuries into mortgage securities. However what the Fed issaying is that this will go beyond 28 days, and will be enhanced, until these marketsstabilize. However, we have deleveraging; we have essentially 'shock absorbers' now forbalance sheets, and it is huge. What it significantly does is not prevent the Nation'sprocedural slide in an ongoing recession; but cushion the rate of descent while gettingahead of 'arcane' conventional approaches that were (as forecast) merely 'pushing on astring' wastes.

 Now;per our comments over the weekend just past; you have a Fed that could start a sort of'whack' to get the bankers and other areas functioning, if not truly 'in shape'; and thatwas most sensitive at a point where the market was very oversold (that's just the reasonwe warned in our bullet points and comments about the oscillators to note the wide postingseparations) that typically either plunge or draw-back from the abyss assisted a bit bytendencies to rebound into the middle of weeks prior to Triple Witch.  

 Asidewishful thinking; this does nothing for home prices at least for now. Interesting, ofcourse to speculate if we now move up, test, even make a 'w bottom like we called in 2002,and then housing perks up and all is well ahead of the Elections. Well; next week we alsowouldn't mind winning the Lottery (no we don't play it) . . . must view all the events(per call for 'time').. and hope they don't cut rates on top of this..disastrous if theydo..after accepting overpriced collateral for good worthy Treasuries. If this fails and itmay; the alternative of a pretext for discounting stocks; discounted house lows; etc., issomething very nasty; but let's reserve that for the future; not as an underlyingfundamental premise for the moment. These are essentially open-ended agreements, by theFed, which are symptomatic of flat-out panic, though creative and welcomed.

 Summary of the biggest (Dow Jones)rally in 5 years from deep oversold (and per our warning that with oversold; too manycalling for idiotic rate cuts; a Fed that I thought had come to grasp they were beingmanipulated by certain interests); plus technical work clearly as noted too extreme if weweren't going to tank anew instantly; rather it seem logical snapback; as often occursanyway, into the middle of the week prior to a week of Triple Witching Expiration); sohere's a nitty gritty of this and currency swaps:

Federal Reserve and other central banks, in a coordinatedintervention we wanted to occur for a very long time, finally essentially teamed-up to gethundreds of billions of dollars in fresh funds to cash-starved credit markets, allowingfinancial firms to 'use' securities backed by home mortgages as collateral for centralbank loans. Note they aren't buying such paper, but allowing the lending of these which islike using 'Loctite' (something that unfreezes frozen screws and bolts) to lubricate andget this moving. This does not provide equity into the Fed at all (actually riskierholdings); but it helps.

That's why in the 'bullet points' I call it improving 'fluidity'of money. So stocks surged, bonds fell and the long-suffering U.S. Dollar rose -as we havebeen projecting as the essential ingredient to get things stabilized, or at least aprerequisite. In reaction thus it's a sign financial markets saw the plan as a viableremedy to ease a crisis, that has threatened world economic growth. But the remedy is a'treatment' not a fix. Just sort of throwing money (the stupid rebate plan) or cuttingrates are 'fixes' for addition; this is an intelligent way to approach it; as helpsprevent a systemic (ie: 1930-'31) lockup, while it does less with respect to obviatingissues of credit and debt than some hope. The ground-breaking swap scenario may ultimatelyhelp get money to mortgages but not where the super-optimists would like to see it; somesort of creative construction. It is therefore still a defensive maneuver; but engaged atprecisely the proper spot.

It is a step in the right direction. Absolutely.Aggressive actions to boost liquidity will make it easier for banks to get money. Andthat's important. Other stuff was impotent. Essentially the Fed expanded its securitieslending program, offering $200 billion of liquid U.S. Treasuries to primary dealerssecured for 28 days. Significantly expanding types of securities that can be used ascollateral for loans; the plan effectively allows banks to exchange unwanted mortgagenotes for easy-to-sell government securities. (So yes if you think about it, guess whothat means gets saddled with the lousy stuff; but there's no alternative, as we are allbetter off if we mitigate 'unintended disaster'.)

Notably, the U.S. central bank also said it would notaccept private mortgage-backed securities that credit ratings agencies had put underreview for possible downgrades. That takes a bite out of eligible debt, although the Fedsaid there may be as much as $1 trillion that would qualify for the auctions. The unusualmove (maybe not so much as the banks are the primary constituents of the Fed) is thatAAA-rated securities as issued by banks, are accepted. These are the 'default fear'underlying asset areas.

Daily action . . . attempts to simplify what this does. Itprovides liquidity to keep the deterioration of certain illiquid securities to amanageable limit; by getting it off their books (and onto the Nation's). Again; assuspected all along, this directs help toward the bankers, not the public; thoughindirectly it helps the capital markets functioning, in the midst of a modern-day run onbanks; which may only have been sidestepped.

Auction sizes were already increased last week (part of why westarted talking about a snapback rather than a 'crash', ahead of the middle of thepre-Expiration week and brought attention to the prospect of 'twists', reserves orsomething being done, which they did at the optimum time of most-evident weakness belowthe January lows as is their custom… and of course that's when an intervention mustwork or debacle time).

None of this will get commercial banks to loosen lending terms.Should I repeat that? This crisis extends well beyond residential home loans; in rippleeffects, unintended consequences, and political ramifications that risk being pushed tothe left of center. Muni bonds; student loans; auto loans; and commercial property lendingare all areas of concern we have elucidated for the past year as outcroppings from thehousing or property mess, and (we hasten though reluctantly add), these issues aren'tmagically fixed by this; though some action was both expected and certainly welcomed.

Also, it was noted, but not widely reported, that much as banksjump the opportunity, only a sum of around $15 billion is being made available in thefirst announced 28-day term repurchase transaction series. So; we must also say thisindicates seriously deepening sense of anxiety, on the part of the Fed, despite ourpleasure at the Fed's 'twist-style' repurchase move, and their action at an appropriate'technical' time. This also dovetails unbelievably importantly with our urging of'support' for the U.S. Dollar.

However, that does not mean (as far as scalping) that guidelineswon't short post the follow-through in the morning; when too many cover or venture-inafter the fact which almost invariably induces a pullback in markets, irrespective of whatfollow thereafter.

Sure, these moves ease the credit crunch slightly, because some ofthe institutions in this case are likely to use the funds to replace money they don't getfrom selling what they can't (packaged structured bundles) or by borrowing from otherbanks (reluctant) as is the norm. The money isn't being doled out to consumers; at leastthat's my take.

More likely, they'll shore-up their balance sheets, buy Treasurieslater again; giving a slightly steadier stream of revenue (not really earnings) than theircrippled loans. For now this sort of eases the fear of rising defaults, but doesn'tclarify underlying asset's quality. Hence even superior borrowers could be troubled if theeconomy tanks anew.

Banks can't be made to lend; but it's is a step in the rightdirection. But from Fed fear; not confidence. An upshot is that this runs-in shorts bigtime but the liquidity measure falls short of addressing the magnitude of this capitalcrisis. More may occur; so we'll not (yet) try to divine the ensuing pattern of 'testing'or downside resumption. But we'll be quite clear to note that the overriding scope ofderivatives out there dwarf anything in history, and that makes it a little foolhardy toascribe to this terrific move more than it merits; though it merits lots of respect forthe Fed moving as we argued they should in a direction counter to the maniacalcheerleading for lower rates, as are ineffective.

It is in essence a 'kick-start' to restore credit marketconfidence; with results pending. In this regard, we (beyond a shortest term) have toremain skeptical, as nothing less than 'time' allows Americans to work-through theirincredible and historical overloads in the debt arena, and diminution of net worthprimarily through home equity drops. It is inconceivable that such situations turn-aroundanytime soon, irrespective of what the Fed does; irrespective of restored or improvedpsychology, to a certain extent.

If the perception's 'hope' these measures now allow return toprofligate lending or the same from the spending perspective; then these measures willindeed ring hollow for the populace, beyond the banking community. Not against assetappreciation for the regular folks; it's just that is not in the cards based on what theFed has engineered at this point; and it shouldn’t' be. So we would hope that anyrespite is used by most people to shore-up their financial stability; not engage in somenew speculative effort that is pyrrhic at best. There may be infusions of cash intobrokers or other efforts we suspect that cloud what really happened; a way to redress thebanking insolvency as clearly (in reality if one did a true audit) exists for so many; away to cloud the Reg W meanings (the waivers earlier last year which was the clue to us,that the Fed was on top of the situation, unlike what the whiners contended) andfacilitate banking activity.

Bottom-line (even simpler): the Fed will lend Treasuries inexchange for junk debt in (for the most part mortgage-backed) securities just essentiallynot priceable currently, and that allows banks to 'switch' debt that is less liquid forbonds that are tradable. At least some big firms like Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, GoldmanSachs and others will get paid (ahem… shoring them up too) helping dealers on bothsides balance sheets. The program 'may be' increased if needed; anonymous Fed officialsalso are stating.

Again, we continue to applaud the Fed (and did so in advancethinking they knew lots better than to listen to circus barkers extolling the virtues ofmore rate cuts who now it seems will act as if they knew everything will be sanguineagain) for positive impact it appears in stepping outside-the-box of orthodox thinking anddoing what they at least are trying. It's creative salvation, rather than stubborndestruction, that low rates yield when the entire issue had little if anything to do withhigh rates to start with. But this is in-itself not going to free-up a tremendous amountof money for conventional lending.

It is a good move; and far closer to the center ring of thiscrisis circus than the others. However the stock market and consumer spending arena remainhostage to housing.

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Bottomline: macro signs as interpreted; including (updatedyet-again) the following bullet points:

· Primaryissue remains not sharp 'lending issues' or even liquidity, but of financial solvency;
· Alleviates a 'seized' aspect of creditmarkets; but doesn't alleviate the fundamental problem;
· Fed 'lending' via mortgage debt takenas Collateral, is an important step toward stabilization;
· Important to note: Fed is not buyingbut loaning on such debt. Also whole issue is a symptom;
· Meaning; moving in right direction.However, this does little to alleviate underlying overall debt;
· What is does do is restore decline toprocedural norms; rather than over-the-edge debacle;
· Virtually impossible to resolve debt;but thankfully a desired focus away from rate cuts;
· Very positive step inline with desiredapproach to underpin the U.S. Dollar;
· Only if you stabilize the Dollar canyou stop subsidizing cheap Oil & Gas overseas;
· Only by doing so can you restoreequilibrium and take pressure off domestic stagflation;
· Nevertheless; while a breath of reliefat the right time; does more for functionality than 'debt';
· Derivatives or other liabilities remaininherently gargantuan; not impacted by this action;
· Don't forget: commercial propertyimplosions still should follow drastic retailing contractions;
· In best case scenario limited furtherupside; then renewed 'testing' should irregularly ignite;
· Thousands of retail outlets are, have,or will be closed as consumers retrench (unchanged);
· Impaired lenders will inherit manyproperties as they default ahead; this is not averted;
· Rentals will plunge for otherproperties to preserve occupancy rates pending recovery;
· Employment data started reflectingcommercial construction or related equipment 'cracks';
· Detected key changes in Bernanke's lasttestimony; turns global extremism upside down;
· How so; because he said we have totransition from consumption to internal growth; agreed;
· Future not a question of pureprotectionism; goal is new growth without abrogating treaties;
· Global economic decline started; inlinewith ongoing forecast of economic contagion;
· Acceptance of this reality enhancedwell-planned 'coordinated' intervention with U.S. Fed;
· From the start we said world wouldn't'decouple' from globalized 'U.S. credit pandemic';
· Equity markets remain strapped for capital raising; still limitserious recovery prospects;
· By no means 'presume' this contraction 'merely' of an averageU.S. post-war duration;
· Remember our theory: 'solo-walk' '07 Dow highs masked bear-marketretracement peak;
· To wit: entire forecast upside 'reflation' from 2002 to 2006 waslikely just a retracement;
· Our view: bearish 'super-cycle' commenced in 2000; with no'secular' bull market ensuing;
· Hence our forecast 2002-'06 rally was indeed a mid-cyclecorrection; in a super-cycle 'bear';
· Simply put: markets won't pay-up for earnings pending actualviable growth prospects;
· Deleveraging remains 'a b*tch', as unpleasant (secular) scenariosrotationally evolve;
· Volatility responds to 'traders', but doesn't alter (thoughmitigates) primary trend;
· Internal decline now 15 months old; per distribution warningsunder firm Dow cover then.

Further points: nearer-term issues to contend with beyond above; some with macro aspects:

· Pyramiding mountains of compounding debt have not ended;facilitation assisted a bit;
· Not to suggest (identified) interim rallies won't be feasiblefrom extremes; as recently noted;
· Recall recent view of commodity rallies 'blowing-off' at leasttemporarily (5^th wave patterns);
· We said: reversal trigger could be: Dollar stabilization; if Fedfails to cut rates further;
· All along Fed actually trying to promote bank systemic stability;not underwrite all risks;
· Fed's goal: not save housing; merely try to salvage 'commercialbanking' from disaster;
· Forewarned of February-May 2008 resettsunami sequel for a year; others just grappling;
· Real-estate bubble forecast as just a microcosmof bigger issues; clearly as not resolved;
· Many major banks still have far larger leveragedderivative holdings than typically realized;
· Repeatedly most 'values' get 'better';but danger of 'surprise' insolvencies clearly remains;
· As to the threat of an attack (whileU.S. financially down); well we mentioned that it exists;
· Said: only gets worse if Fed continues cutting rates; thatapproach is 'pushing on a string';
· Best case to stabilize Dollar and ease commodities and Oil;stop cutting rates; so far good;
· After all, real world rates rise, not drop on cuts; due todislocations triggering more contagion;
· Risk of rebounds on 'twists', reverse repurchase agreements orReserves lowered is present;
· A variation of this is what the Fed did; which helps stabilizefunctionality and money fluidity;
· However; irrespective of interim 'finger in the dike' saves;the overall downtrend continues;
· Don't overlook: Adm. Fallon is resigning from Pacific Fleet (riftwith Bush over war on Iran?).

MarketCast (intraday analysis &embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks continue guidelinesto catch short-term swings; including Monday's homerun short(s); and a long bias frompullbacks into midday through Tuesday close; based on the Fed finally embracing a creativeapproach distant from 'rate cutting', which is as desired. It remains our view (aspostulated strongly here) that rate cutting is 'pushing on a string' and not a solution atthis point. We are delighted that the Fed apparently now agrees.

All part of maintaining fluidity and unfreezing systemsduring historic 'deleveraging'. Complex issues arose inbanks beyond rate concern; our key point for many months. Pundits calling for further cutscontinue crazed. (Expanded in evening's text & video reports). We retain our macro MarchS&P 1595 short-sale, irrespective of all interim washouts long-side plays predictedthis week, and as outlined within tonight's video.



Now the latest Daily Briefing audio-video MarketCast final 'chart' comments:  

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Daily BriefingTechnical-Corner MarketCast Video  
Click the link to view the video:
http://tinyurl.com/ywynff

(members note: Flash-basedvideo plays in all browsers; needs 'free' download / plug-in only if prompted)

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Bits & Bytes . . .provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers anassortment of technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech overall,or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P,plus ideas www.ingerletter.com thinks might meritfurther reflection.

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Scheduled Economic News Releases:

 Thursday:

 · Initial Jobless Claims (weekly);
· Retail Sales (poor; bigger disasters yet ahead..I know);
· Import/Export Prices (higher on former);
· Business Inventories.

 Friday:

[font="Symbol;color:windowtext;font-weight:normal"]· [/font]CPI (anyone still think only 'core' matters?);
· Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prelim).

 

In summary . . eventscontinue reminding us of risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks onfree peoples, by elements including organized terrorist forces in various countries. Aworld addressing terror threats continues, as domestic issues absorb us more whileas we also focus on Middle East and World War III avoidance.

 Our 2007 view had been that we'rein an ill-defined recession; finally recognized as it evolves. As to whether itdescends into something akin to post-railroad debacles way back in the 1880's; is likelywhat the Fed worries about; never talks about; but actions affirm they're desperatelyengaged to stabilize fluidity of functionality. Regression to the mean ortraditional affordability 'rules' likely hallmarks of home lending guidelines for years. Ihasten to add, whether depressing or realistic (per 3 year forecast here of the housingbreak combined with 'junk debt' investment avoidance); stocks eventually get interesting.Gilded Age globalists unflaggingly failed to see the era's transition, or detect thepublic mood of increased populism; essential reform calls; and low taxes.

 McClellan Oscillator finds NYSE 'Mac' fluctuating viaintervening bull-bear shuffles on the NYSE & NASDAQ. Reflex rallies allowed 'riskoff-loading' tactics; as 'Street' debt holdings aren't investment grade.Multi-month efforts evolving. In this regard, we suspect that strategy fluctuates withmarkets; trying to salvage attractiveness of many stocks, whose expectations remainout-of-line optimistic for the actual world situation.  

 Issues continue including oil,terror; China (including latest Pentagonhack spying; a type of action that if we were financially sober would provoke warrantedredressing), Pakistan; certainly all the MiddleEast, Europe; funny money NY economics. Noted for a year: includesinternational dependencies, as outcroppings of a radical extremist globalism which isneither pro-American nor conservative; even as true conservatives support fair trading;constrained spending, and not squandering our US crown jewels.

 Thirteen months ago Icalled this an 'accident waiting to happen'; commenting that it is affirmed historicallythat long-duration periods of free money (Gilded Age mentality) do not createpermanent liquidity; but give that illusion while the opposite transpires. There will bevarious trading swings; through 2008. We scalp these, while retaining our (adjusted)position short from March S&P 1595  for now,which continues clearly to represent the belief that while rallies occur; they remainwithin our structural bear.

 Since early 2007 we notedeconomic conditions more similar to post the Gilded Age ending in 1929, the panic of 1907(hence our call for the start to be the 'panic of 2007' last year at the end of thatGilded Age, and it's NOT coming back (party over whether they like it or not, as theydidn't or only now 'start' to 'concede' there's needed rehab). It is not a structureentirely resolved by rate cuts, stimulus, 'miracles', arrogance of a few who think theyhave influence; although all can have short-run responses at best.

 Long-run: 'new' adults in chargewill enable better fiscal and public policy, than what passed for prudent economic ormoney management in the past era. We played the upside so long as sensible (Oct. 2002 -early '07); look forward to doing so yet-again, in a macro perspective. On themicro-front; we do so only momentarily; as scalps. In the case this is a signal of anevolving bottoming structure; that still takes months not hours or days to sort out; andthat means the best-case would become a 'w bottom' (I respect what the Fed's trying; so wewon't even address the worst case just for now). I have warned that a stronger Dollarwould ease the inflation insanity; so that's a clue for one area to keep an eye on in thedays immediately ahead.

 

Enjoy the evening,

 Gene Inger,
Publisher

 

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