7 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

I haven't studied where the HUI and XAU are in their respective cycles, but the metals have some time to kill before their next major lows. Kimston and others that follow the PM cycles would attest to that.

Technically, silver put in a multi-month high in March (MACD weekly sell) and now time will be needed before the larger cycles bottom. Will it be a higher high as in previous cycles? Hard to say but I would not bet on it given the large cycles could be pointing down (4.5, 9, 18 year). The last instance of an 18 year low was 1993 for silver at ~$3.





cheers,

john

[gvc]

John,, I haven't gone back very far , but it looks as is gdx has a 88-92 Low to Low cycle. Both the last two had a 58 td low to high . Should the next low to high remain the same, then the next high should come in around July 24. Whether or not that high is higher than the last cycle high in mid march remains to be seen. BTW, congrats on your recent short trade !

[Kimston]

Hi John, I'm still going with the analysis and charts I've posted intermittently in the weeks prior to the March top: platinum clearly was in a dangerous blow-off destined to collapse, gold/gold stocks appear to have completed fairly clear 5 wave patterns from the 2000/2001 lows, and the 8.2 year cycle is pointing down till Fall/Spring. I had two primary price projections for gold top; one at the 930 area and one at the 1030 area. I posted charts with the fib projections. If for some reason the cycle fails or inverts, I'll go long if we break above 1040 on gold. Otherwise, I'm holding short till I see some serious capitulation and normal retracement of the 5 wave advance....hopefully in June or July. BTW, the silver market had some remarkable geometry (chart not posted) that pinpointed the top and, in my analysis, marks the March high as important. Like gold, if the March high in Silver is exceded, I'll be buying calls. Kimston

[SilentOne]

Kimston, You get the gold star as far as I am concerned. You've done your homework and you saw the top approaching from safe ground. Good for you in sticking with your shorts. How many posters on various forums that follow this market did that in your recollection? Very few to my mind. I now count roughly 6 more weeks to the next 56 week cycle bottom for gold. Will it be the 9 year Hurst low (in gold's case it usually is ~8 - 8.5 years) or will it just be the first leg down in the bear. One way or another it will be a good swing trade off that low. Silver is not necessarily working to the same timing for a low. This time I will be able to follow closely and make the trade. Please PM me when you feel that coming. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 29 May 2008 - 11:11 PM.

[Kimston]

John,
I have a cluster of time squares/cycles of various lengths lining up in the second week of July (6 weeks out from now), so I also will be watching for tradable lows (or highs if things unexpectedly invert) in that timeframe.

Best,

Kimston

Kimston,

You get the gold star as far as I am concerned. You've done your homework and you saw the top approaching from safe ground. Good for you in sticking with your shorts. How many posters on various forums that follow this market did that in your recollection? Very few to my mind.

I now count roughly 6 more weeks to the next 56 week cycle bottom for gold. Will it be the 9 year Hurst low (in gold's case it usually is ~8 - 8.5 years) or will it just be the first leg down in the bear. One way or another it will be a good swing trade off that low. Silver is not necessarily working to the same timing for a low. This time I will be able to follow closely and make the trade.

Please PM me when you feel that coming.

cheers,

john

[dharma]

fwiw, my stuff shows an upmove til the end of june, then a downmove making the low @the end of july-mid/late august. that will be the last low before we blast off. so, it may be the 8.5 yr low. dharma

[Islander]

Always wonder about cycles v. seasonality. The seasonal swing seems to reach the same result as near as I can tell. I been following the seasonality for about 20 years and it seems to be reasonably stable and best of all I make money. best, Islander.

[dharma]

yes, islander you bring up the most important point, ie this is a buying opportunity dharma