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cedartree
From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416
If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302!
Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace
Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars
Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace
Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1).
Time:
Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days.
Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.
cedartree
QUOTE (cedartree @ Dec 15 2011, 01:11 AM) *
From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416
If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302!
Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace
Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars
Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace
Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1).
Time:
Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days.
Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.



If we can hold this double bottom area around 1545, then we can possibly have a descending flat bottom triangle, with a D up and E down still to come. In this case the C wave is composed of only 3 waves. Another support for this possibility is that $28.00 is the bottom tine of my silver pitchfork on the daily chart. We got down there last night and it is still holding here on Thursday morning.
stubaby
QUOTE (cedartree @ Dec 15 2011, 01:11 AM) *
From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416
If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302!
Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace
Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars
Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace
Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1).
Time:
Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days.
Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.


cedartree:

Your Count? (except I have top at 1,917):


And a more complex alternative if this Wave C bottoms before 1,516:


stubaby
beta


I believe we are nearing the completion of a 20-week corrective decline, that started in late August 2011 ... and will complete by the end of this year.



tria
Beta:

McClellan speaks of a 13.5 month cycle bottomoning in the end of next quarter.
Terry Laundry has a similar bearish forcast for early next year.
Too early to tell, I have started following the Gold's lease rates to see the possibility of bottoming so soon.

stubaby:

My hat off to you for stating that 12/08 would be a high and not a low.
Advance inside information from Mario Draghi perhaps?

-tria
cedartree
QUOTE (stubaby @ Dec 15 2011, 12:44 PM) *
QUOTE (cedartree @ Dec 15 2011, 01:11 AM) *
From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416
If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302!
Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace
Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars
Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace
Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1).
Time:
Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days.
Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.


cedartree:

Your Count? (except I have top at 1,917):


And a more complex alternative if this Wave C bottoms before 1,516:


stubaby



Stubaby, Thank you for posting such accurate charts of my two possible counts. Your use of 1917 for the top would make my A wave 24 days instead of 15. Now I notice that my time counts are all wrong! This is what they should be:
Wave A: 15 or 24 trading days (1923 or 1917 top)
Wave B: 32 days
Wave 1 of C: 8 days
Wave 2 of C: 9 days
Wave 3 of C: 8 days ( as of 12/15)
gismeu
Hi,

just discovered this site:

http://www.tradinglounge.com.au/TradingBlo...03/Default.aspx

if you scroll down a bit, they got some charts with EW counts on gold.
Might be of interest to some here.

gis


cedartree
QUOTE (gismeu @ Dec 15 2011, 04:37 PM) *
Hi,

just discovered this site:

http://www.tradinglounge.com.au/TradingBlo...03/Default.aspx

if you scroll down a bit, they got some charts with EW counts on gold.
Might be of interest to some here.

gis

Thanks, gismeu. Peter seems to have the same count so far. I don't know what time zone he is in, but his posts are a whole week ahead of us! laugh.gif
gismeu
[/quote]
Thanks, gismeu. Peter seems to have the same count so far. I don't know what time zone he is in, but his posts are a whole week ahead of us! laugh.gif
[/quote]


Who is Peter please?

Thanks, gis
cedartree


Who is Peter please?

Thanks, gis
[/quote]

I think that Peter is the author of the blog(from down under in Australia). I guess that he prefers to trade our markets utilizing CFD's...a trading vehicle that much of the world uses, but our SEC has not yet approved for our use.
gismeu
Hi,

I am an EW novice, but keen to learn, so here is an attempt
on the Gold futures, 15 min chart with yesterday's low as the end
of wave C. Does not have to be the end, but for now I assume that.

http://i931.photobucket.com/albums/ad151/g...utures15min.jpg

gis
gismeu
Just read his Saturday report and thought not everyone here might know of him.
For myself he is a tad too bullish,

gis

http://www.demeadville.com/mmbs_Gold_Update.html

cedartree
QUOTE (gismeu @ Dec 16 2011, 03:30 PM) *
Hi,

I am an EW novice, but keen to learn, so here is an attempt
on the Gold futures, 15 min chart with yesterday's low as the end
of wave C. Does not have to be the end, but for now I assume that.

http://i931.photobucket.com/albums/ad151/g...utures15min.jpg

gis


Hey gismeu, that's pretty good! And if we have indeed turned the corner, we should soon be over 1600 again after first doing an abc correction that doesn't take out the 1562 low. If we take out 1562, then we might be in wave 5 of C down.
stubaby
EW Alternatives - (Charts will update automatically)


Primary Count:


Alternative 1 (Wave 5 ahead to complete corrective):


Alternative 2 (Contracting Triangle):


Alternative 3 - The most Bearish outlook (Wave 5 of 3 then 4 and 5 to complete corrective):



Bottom Line - Hold & Add to Gold and Gold Miners as a "Intermediate-Term" Low is forming!


stubaby cool.gif
dougie
You do beAUTIFUL Work stu
I like alt 2 cycle wise
QUOTE (stubaby @ Dec 26 2011, 01:36 PM) *
EW Alternatives - (Charts will update automatically)


Primary Count:


Alternative 1 (Wave 5 ahead to complete corrective):


Alternative 2 (Contracting Triangle):


Alternative 3 - The most Bearish outlook (Wave 5 of 3 then 4 and 5 to complete corrective):



Bottom Line - Hold & Add to Gold and Gold Miners as a "Intermediate-Term" Low is forming!


stubaby cool.gif

tradermama
Hi Stubably,
Thanks for your great charts. Could you please do similiar count on GDX? Wouldn't miners bottom first before gold? Thanks again.
TM
dougie
an alternate drawing of your 2nd alternate counte; today would be lows
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p...amp;a=250844670
stubaby
All that can be said "for certain" is that nothing is certain at the moment:

Positives
•Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports are positive for both Gold and especially for Silver - http://nowandfutures.com/images/cot/GC.png http://nowandfutures.com/images/cot/SI.png
•Sentiment is extremely negative - http://www.goldalert.com/gold-sentiment/
•A strong move up off the print low of December 29th

Alternatives
1.Completeing Wave 4 of C of ABC now with wave 5 of C ahead (print above 1,667 would eliminate this count) 30%



2.Completing Wave B of ABC now with the entirety of Wave C ahead (most bearish targeting 1,440 - then 1,272) 20%



3.Wave 5 of C of ABC complete at 1,523.90 - in early stages of new impulse move higher 30%



4.Wave D still "in progress" up to 1,750 to be followed by E (ending above December low of 1,523.90) 40%



If (count 4 above) Wave D is still "in progress" it could end here, but for "the right look" should move near 1,750, which is what I would expect. If we move down "hard" from here - this count will probably move to the "low probability pile" as will count 3 and counts 1 and 2 above will move up in probability.

Bottom line - whether the low is in or somewhat in front of us at lower prices - this is the time to accumulate for the next move up, which should be the most powerful leg of the Gold Bull Market over the next 2-3 years!

Good Luck.

stubaby biggrin.gif
dougie
wow;
lovely work there
will be a wonder to watch what unfolds , and we should know the probable outcomes over the next month or two
dougie
adds up to 120%
QUOTE (stubaby @ Jan 15 2012, 12:54 PM) *
All that can be said "for certain" is that nothing is certain at the moment:

Positives
•Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports are positive for both Gold and especially for Silver - http://nowandfutures.com/images/cot/GC.png http://nowandfutures.com/images/cot/SI.png
•Sentiment is extremely negative - http://www.goldalert.com/gold-sentiment/
•A strong move up off the print low of December 29th

Alternatives
1.Completeing Wave 4 of C of ABC now with wave 5 of C ahead (print above 1,667 would eliminate this count) 30%



2.Completing Wave B of ABC now with the entirety of Wave C ahead (most bearish targeting 1,440 - then 1,272) 20%



3.Wave 5 of C of ABC complete at 1,523.90 - in early stages of new impulse move higher 30%



4.Wave D still "in progress" up to 1,750 to be followed by E (ending above December low of 1,523.90) 40%



If (count 4 above) Wave D is still "in progress" it could end here, but for "the right look" should move near 1,750, which is what I would expect. If we move down "hard" from here - this count will probably move to the "low probability pile" as will count 3 and counts 1 and 2 above will move up in probability.

Bottom line - whether the low is in or somewhat in front of us at lower prices - this is the time to accumulate for the next move up, which should be the most powerful leg of the Gold Bull Market over the next 2-3 years!

Good Luck.

stubaby biggrin.gif

stubaby
QUOTE
adds up to 120%


dougie:

simply my perception of "the weight" of potential outcomes based on present "extreme" conditions.


stubaby
dougie
Stu: you see a wash out coming in miners here into FEB i take it, followed by a strong move north?
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