Guardian Checklist for Tuesday 9/20/05
Published Monday 9/19/05
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Intermediate-term Outlook (weeks):
Seasonal Cycle: Negative.
Coppock Breadth Indicator: Buy. The CBI was down 0.4 to 220.6, 0.1 beneath the exponential.
Weekly MACD: Buy.
Bull Bear Market Indicator: Positive.
Conclusion: We are still in a Cyclical BULL Market, and while the Seasonal is still negative. The Weekly trend has turned up. Longs are favored.
Short/Intermediate-Term
NYSE Cumulative A/D Volume: Positive. Looking a bit iffy.
ITBM: Sell. Unconfirmed.
Summation: Negative.
KTT*: Buy. Unconfirmed.
CCI Daily: Neutral.
10-day ARMS: Neutral.
MACD Daily: Positive.
21-day MA: Positive.
Senticator: Positive.
Conclusion: Longs are favored. Barely.
Short-term
Stochastic Turn Spotter: Neutral.
VIX 30': Negative from the open.
MACD 60': Sell.
Moving Averages: Negative. Watch the 1232-1234 area.
Conclusion: Shorts are favored, but I'm thinking that pullbacks should be bought.
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Last time, I said that the Monday after expiration is usually opposite of Friday, so we might see some selling. I was even open to another brief leg down. It appears that we're getting it. I believe that the odds favor higher prices and more upside than downside, so we ought to be a bit long and prepared to buy dips. That's my view for now.
The Hourly trend is still looking pretty sick, and the cumulative A/D volume is a bit iffy, but that's what we'd expect after getting everyone and their brother quickly long. That's also what it takes to start turning folks negative, which builds the "wall of worry" which ought to push the market higher. That's my thesis, in any case. We're almost at the right time of year for a big rally, but we may have to suffer through some more chop, first. Try to stay constructive. We're going to come flying out of this morass like a bat out of Hell, I'll bet, and it won't give us a good chance or place to get long when it does.
The NDX may have completed an a-b-c correction today, though chances are we have a bit more selling ahead of us.
The KTT traders are now on an un-confirmed Buy. We got stopped out of our long, though it wasn't a big position nor was it a wide stop. We still need to be looking long, but it gets tricky.
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Not everyone likes a short-term trading model, and would like something that hangs onto bigger moves and reflects a less frenetic trading pace. If you want to know how I would trade based upon the big picture and the sentiment, the following tracking portfolio is it.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (tracking portfolio):
25% Money Market
25% QQQQ at 38.80.
25% IWO at 68.05
25% QQQ at 39.15.
We're long and we'd like to add some more. Buy 25% QQQ at 38.80.
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Mutual Fund Models Position Summary
1) STAMP Portfolio
75% Money Market.
25% Velocity
2) Rydex Naz Trader Portfolio
50% Money Market.
50% Venture
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1)*Real Money* Seasonal Trading Asset Management Program
(All weightings are approximate)
25% Velocity.
75% Money Market.
We bought at the early cut off on 9/5, while subscribers got in at the early cutoff on the following day, again, for a better execution. We added at the close today. Tomorrow will probably be soon enough.
This is a very conservative approach (~1/3 the risk of the market), using both long and short funds as well as the occasional favored sector/stock idea. All performance is net of fees, commissions, and interest. Your results may vary, especially if we trade for our accounts intra-day, and standard disclaimers apply. We use discretion. For further information, call us at 1-800-769-6980.
2) Rydex Naz Trading Model
Weekly Trend: Buy.
Rydex Ratios Trigger: Neutral.
MACD Risk Reducer: Neutral.
CCI Entry Improver: Neutral.
NDX Stochastic: Buy.
Long a 1/4 position in Velocity at 20.96. and doubled up at 20.85.
QQQQ traders are 50% long at 39.20 and 50% long at 39.05.
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Trading is not only risky, but trading different vehicles also entails unique risks. Traders can lose a significant amount of money trading options, and more in futures. Mutual funds have certain trading limitations that must be understood before you undertake any market timing approach. Traders should discuss the forgoing issues with their broker before taking any trades. We aren't your advisor unless you have a signed contract with us. You are responsible for your own trading decisions and results. Take your time and do your homework. Past performance is no indication of future returns.
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See our Web site for more
www.EquityGuardian.com
Mark Young
President
Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
859-393-3335
