Posted 22 September 2005 - 10:09 AM
*Interviewwith Ike Iossif on September 17. http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
"TimerDigest"has Tim Ord ranked #5for one year ending 6/3/05 and #2in Gold for 2004.
For30 to 90 days horizon:ShortSPX on 9/13/05 at 1231.20. Short Nasdaq 7/29/05 at 2184.83.
Formonitoring purposes:Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
LongerTerm Trend monitoring purposes: flat.
Whatto expect now:
The S&P fellthrough the recent low of 9/15 at the 1225 range on increased volume and implies a validbreak to the downside. The 1225 range shouldnow act as resistance on any rally attempt. Ournext down side target is the late August low near the 1200 range. If the 1200 range is hit on increased volume thenthat will imply the 1200 range will be broken and head down to the next area of supportwhich will be the July low near the 1190 range. Ourdownside target for the final low is near the 1140 range, which is the April low. We had a downside target for a low due inOctober but that may change to early November. Ifthing change between now and then, we will change with them. So far there has not been a bullish divergence onthe Summation index and therefore any short-term bounce should be shorted for the nearterm. The NYSE McClellan Summation index isstill trending down today and the sell signal remains in force. We are short the SPX at 1231.20.
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Nasdaq Composite:
Below we have postedthe daily Nasdaq graph with "Price Relative to SPX" (Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). The "Price Relative to SPX" remains on asell signal that was triggered several weeks ago. Todaythe Nasdaq closed below the previous minor low of 8/29 at the 2112 level on increasedvolume and implies a valid break to the downside. However,for short term the Nasdaq is extended to the downside and can bounce for short term. Resistance lies near the 2115 range and it ispossible a bounce can occur there before heading lower. The Nasdaq McClellan Summationindex is heading down and implies the trend of the bigger degree is down. There is a change the Nasdaq may not find anintermediate term low until early November. Previouswe were looking for an October low. Ourdownside target is still near the 1900 range. We are short the Nasdaq at 2184.83.
GOLDMarket:
"Timer Digest" hasranked Tim Ord as the #2 gold timer for 2004.
Short termtrade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This tradeis separate from our long-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23(5/26/05). We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
Below is the weekly XAUdisplayed with the "Price Relative to Gold" ratio and the "Price momentumOscillator" (PMO) (courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). Our price target for the next possible consolidation phase may begin near130 range on the XAU. The 130 range is an ABCtarget from the March 2003 low. The XAU isrunning into the November 2004 and December 2003 highs at the 111 range now. Usually when a market tests the previous highs thethird time the market usually rallies through. This next intermediate term high may comewhen the weekly PMO nears the +10 range. Thereason we are picking the +10 range is that the two previous highs of May 2002 andDecember 2004 high were in the +10 ranges on the PMO. Therefore, if the XAU is near 130 and the PMO is near +10, we may look totake some profits. We think a longer term high will appear near the 180 range on the XAUdue in October 2006. Seasonality time framesremains bullish tell the first week in October and therefore the current rally may haveanother two or three weeks to run.
We double our positionsin BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for anaverage of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 andbring our average price to .81.
The McClellan Oscillatorclosed today's at -186 and oversold for the short term.
The Percent VolumeIndicator closed .39 and neutral level.
The "5 dayARMS" closed today at 5.83 and at neutral level.
Conclusion: short 9/13/05on SPX at 1231.20 range. Short Nasdaq on 7/29 at 2184.83.
LongerTerm Trend monitoring purposes: Flat.