The VRTrader.com VR Platinum Newsletter Monday 9/26/2005
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright © 2005, All rights reserved.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Monday, September 26, 2005
Pre-Market
New Buy/Short
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MDY - Buy @ 127.00-127.40. Target: 129.70-129.80. Stop: 126.05
MDY - Short @ 129.70-129.90. Target: 123.00. Stop: 130.85
SPY - Short @ 122.40-122.90. Target: 118.00. Stop: 123.75
DIA - Short @ 105.35-105.45. Target: 99.00. Stop: 106.40
JDSU - Buy @ 1.85-1.90. Target: 2.75-3.00. Stop: 1.50
AWA - Buy @ 8.15-8.20. Target: 10.00-11.00. Stop: 6.60
GLD - Buy @ 44.80-44.90. Target: 50.00. Stop: 41.50
NEM - Buy @ 42.55-42.65. Target: 50.00. Stop: 38.00
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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
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Leibovit Files
Monday, September 26, 2005
Opening Comments
Economic Data and events September 26-30:
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MONDAY, September 26:
Existing Home Sales for August (10 am ET)
Treasury announces 2-year note auction (11 am ET)
Treasury auctions 3 & 6-month bills
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TUESDAY, September 27:
Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET)
New Home Sales for August (10 am ET)
Consumer Confidence Index for September (10 am ET)
Fed Chairman Greenspan speaks at NABE Conf. (2:45 pm ET)
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WEDNESDAY, September 28:
Durable Goods Orders for August (8:30 am ET)
EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 am ET)
Treasury auctions 2-year notes
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THURSDAY, September 29:
Gross Domestic Product for 2nd Qtr (8:30 am ET)
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET)
Help Wanted Index for August (10 am ET)
Weekly Money Supply (4:30 pm ET)
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FRIDAY, September 30:
Personal Income & Spending for August (8:30 am ET)
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September (9:45 am ET)
Chicago PMI for September (10 am ET)
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We had a terrific response to our Friday morning Pre-Opening commentary
and want to thank all of you for your praise (and a little criticism). We
got on the pulpit and began to preach, but got some thoughts off our chest
and, fortunately, it hit home for many of you.
Ex-Hurricane RITA has done all of us a favor by not being as severe as it
could have been and the stock market should like it today and possibly
this week with end of the 'window dressing' upon us and very high bearish
sentiment. Cyclically, we told you that we were nervous about a bounce
and took advantage of that thought and covered shorts twice late last week
(both profitably) for our Platinum subscibers with a view to re-enter once
again for the still expected downdraft. We may, however, have to be
patient depending on what the market doles out for us today and tomorrow
and possibly into next week. So, with the news 'good' and oil prices
probably retreating a bit more here (gold also likely to retrace as well),
we may see some upside fireworks. However, we are still quite negative
over the short to near-term with still unfulfilled downside targets in the
major indexes, e.g., Dow Industrials 9900 or lower (9700?). We will
however, respect the tape and watch both breadth and volume carefully. A
sharp spike could force the hands of shorts (and there are plenty of them
out there), so a mini-rout of the bears is not unlikely. A break,
however, under Thursday's lows would be the straw that breaks the camel's
back in our view. In that event, unless driven by some special
(presumably negative) news story, we would be inclined to aggressively
jump back aboard the train heading south! For now, it appears the market
wants to trade higher short-term and we're placing our shorts above the
market.
At the same time, we are watching and waiting for a retracement in the XAU
and GLD to jump back in on the long side. We hate to tie markets together
inversely, but it appears gold and oil down and stocks up may work here
very short-term providing us with an opportunity to position accordingly.
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Check out the current VR List:
http://www.vrtrader..../ViewVRList.asp
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Check a current VR Chart:
http://www.vrtrader..../GetVRChart.asp
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WATCHLIST
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N/A
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LONGS
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DSX - Diana Shipping Inc 14.50
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DSX debuted trading in March and has increased the last couple of trading
days (Aug 31 - Sep 1) on increasing volume after finding support at 13.50
on 8/29/05.
Diana Shipping, Inc., a holding company, engages in the ownership and
operation of dry bulk carriers. The company’s dry bulk carriers transport
iron ore, coal, grain, and other dry cargoes along worldwide shipping
routes. It charters its vessels primarily to major trading houses, major
producers, and government-owned entities. As of September 30, 2004, the
company’s operating fleet comprised seven Panamax drDiana Shipping, Inc.
and its subsidiaries engage in the ownership and operation of dry bulk
carriers. The company’s dry bulk carriers transport iron ore, coal, grain,
and other dry cargoes along worldwide shipping routes. The company’s dry
bulk carrier fleet may be divided into four categories based on a vessel's
carrying capacity, such as Capesize vessels that have carrying capacities
of more than 150,000 dwt and generally operate along long haul iron ore
and coal trade routes; Panamax vessels that have a carrying capacity of
between 60,000 and 80,000 dwt and carry coal, grains, and to a lesser
extent, minor bulks, including steel products, forest products and
fertilizers; Handymax vessels have a carrying capacity of between 35,000
and 60,000 dwt and operate along a large number of geographically
dispersed global trade routes mainly carrying grains and minor bulks; and
Handysize vessels that have a carrying capacity of up to 35,000 dwt and
carry exclusively minor bulk cargo. Diana Shipping charters its vessels
primarily to major trading houses, major producers, and government-owned
entities. As of September 30, 2004, the company’s operating fleet
comprised seven Panamax dry bulk carriers, which had a combined carrying
capacity of approximately 525,000 dead weight tons. Diana Shipping was
founded in 1999 and is based in Athens, Greece.y bulk carriers, which had
a combined carrying capacity of approximately 525,000 dwt. Diana Shipping,
Inc. was founded in 1999 and is based in Athens, Greece.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the August 1 low of 12.32. Target $20.
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SHORTS
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PKI - PerkinElmer Incorporated 20.03
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
PKI is sitting right at support after a weak bounce attempt last week.
PKI gave a Negative Volume Reversal ™ signal on Friday, August 19 and
encountered more selling on Monday, August 22. The sellers look ready to
assume control on this one.
PerkinElmer, Inc. provides scientific instruments, consumables, and
services to the pharmaceutical, biomedical, environmental testing,
chemical, and general industrial markets worldwide. It designs,
manufactures, markets, and services products and systems in three
segments: Life and Analytical Sciences, Optoelectronics, and Fluid
Sciences. The Life and Analytical Sciences segment provides drug
discovery, genetic screening, and environmental and chemical analysis
tools, including instruments, reagents, consumables, and services for
daily applications in scientific research and clinical applications. Its
products are offered under various brand names, including Wallac, Packard,
NEN, AAnalyst, Clarus, OneSource, LABWORKS, Pyris, Spectrum, Optima,
DELFIA, ImageTrak, UltraView, prOTOF, Victor, LANCE, ELAN, and ViewLux.
The Optoelectronics segment provides digital imaging, sensor, and
specialty lighting components used in the biomedical, consumer products,
and other specialty end markets under the brand names Cermax, Heimann,
ColdBlue, MultiBlue, Power Systems, Amorphous Silicon, and Reticon. The
Fluid Sciences segment provides fluid control and containment systems for
environments, such as turbine engines and semiconductor fabrication
facilities under the brand names Belfab, Callisto, Centurion, U-Plex
Seals, E-Seals, Rigid E-Seal Joints, and PressureScience. The company was
founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Wellesley, Massachusetts.
PerkinElmer, Inc. acquired Elcos AG in February 2005, which designs and
manufactures custom light emitting diode and solutions for biomedical and
industrial applications.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Sell short at market with a stop over the July 26 high of 21.60. Looking
for 18.
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Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service.
We would like to hear from each and everyone of
our subscribers. Our email is mark@vrsurvey.com.
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Tuesday, September 13, 2005
STOCKS: Bearish
BONDS: Neutral
GOLD: Bullish
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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Click here to see our Current Portfolio
http://www.vrtrader....lays/stocks.asp
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
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RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
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CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
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HIET - 1/28/2005 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop: 0.30
MDM - 7/13/2005 - Long @ 2.55 Target: 3.50 Stop: 1.50
KO - 7/29/2005 - Long @ 44.25 Target: 48.50 Stop: 38.00
WEL - 8/2/2005 - Long @ 1.40 Target: 2.50 Stop: 0.98
AWA - 9/26/2005 - Buy @ 8.15-8.20 Target: 10.00-11.00 Stop: 6.60
JDSU - 9/26/2005 - Buy @ 1.85-1.90 Target: 2.75-3.00 Stop: 1.50
NEM - 9/26/2005 - Buy @ 42.55-42.65 Target: 50.00 Stop: 38.00
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CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
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GLD - 9/26/2005 - Buy @ 44.80-44.90 Target: 50.00 Stop: 41.50
MDY - 9/26/2005 - Buy @ 127.00-127.40 Target: 129.70-129.80 Stop: 126.05
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CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
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N/A
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CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
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TLT - 9/21/2005 - Short @ 94.85-94.90 Target: 89.00 Stop: 96.01
DIA - 9/26/2005 - Short @ 105.35-105.45 Target: 99.00 Stop: 106.40
MDY - 9/26/2005 - Short @ 129.70-129.90 Target: 123.00 Stop: 130.85
SPY - 9/26/2005 - Short @ 122.40-122.90 Target: 118.00 Stop: 123.75
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EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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AWA - Picked(8/15/2005): 6.90 Exited(9/20/2005): 7.95 Result: 1.05
SFD - Picked(8/22/2005): 26.85 Exited(9/7/2005): 28.14 Result: 1.29
FRG - Picked(8/23/2005): 2.85 Exited(9/20/2005): 3.02 Result: 0.17
GLG - Picked(8/23/2005): 19.08 Exited(9/9/2005): 21.00 Result: 1.92
IPII - Picked(8/24/2005): 17.70 Exited(8/31/2005): 24.68 Result: 6.98
DWA - Picked(8/29/2005): 26.05 Exited(9/14/2005): 27.41 Result: 1.36
LOUD - Picked(8/29/2005): 1.06 Exited(9/19/2005): 0.98 Result: -0.08
SIRI - Picked(8/29/2005): 6.68 Exited(9/14/2005): 7.24 Result: 0.56
GV - Picked(8/31/2005): 0.91 Exited(9/7/2005): 1.21 Result: 0.30
AEM - Picked(9/1/2005): 13.20 Exited(9/16/2005): 14.75 Result: 1.55
SWC - Picked(9/8/2005): 8.43 Exited(9/20/2005): 9.38 Result: 0.95
HL - Picked(9/19/2005): 4.58 Exited(9/20/2005): 4.26 Result: -0.32
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EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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SPY - Picked(8/31/2005): 122.20 Exited(9/6/2005): 122.66 Result: 0.46
DIA - Picked(9/1/2005): 104.79 Exited(9/6/2005): 104.98 Result: 0.19
GLD - Picked(9/2/2005): 44.24 Exited(9/20/2005): 46.33 Result: 2.09
DIA - Picked(9/9/2005): 106.73 Exited(9/12/2005): 106.82 Result: 0.09
GLD - Picked(9/21/2005): 46.90 Exited(9/22/2005): 46.48 Result: -0.42
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EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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PAYX - Picked(8/26/2005): 33.99 Exited(8/29/2005): 33.99 Result: 0.00
JBL - Picked(9/13/2005): 29.26 Exited(9/16/2005): 29.40 Result: -0.14
VLO - Picked(9/13/2005): 111.20 Exited(9/16/2005): 108.89 Result: 2.31
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EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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DIA - Picked(8/29/2005): 103.45 Exited(8/31/2005): 104.17 Result: -0.72
SPY - Picked(9/8/2005): 123.75 Exited(9/8/2005): 123.36 Result: 0.39
TLT - Picked(9/12/2005): 93.63 Exited(9/20/2005): 92.65 Result: 0.98
DIA - Picked(9/13/2005): 106.20 Exited(9/15/2005): 105.65 Result 0.55
IBB - Picked(9/14/2005): 78.45 Exited(9/15/2005): 77.87 Result: 0.58
IWM - Picked(9/14/2005): 67.20 Exited(9/15/2005): 66.25 Result: 0.95
PPH - Picked(9/14/2005): 72.68 Exited(9/15/2005): 72.13 Result: 0.55
RTH - Picked(9/14/2005): 95.86 Exited(9/15/2005): 94.53 Result: 1.33
SPY - Picked(9/14/2005): 123.74 Exited(9/15/2005): 123.22 Result: 0.52
DIA - Picked(9/16/2005): 106.10 Exited(9/19/2005): 106.00 Result: 0.10
IWM - Picked(9/16/2005): 66.65 Exited(9/19/2005): 66.85 Result: -0.20
SPY - Picked(9/16/2005): 123.70 Exited(9/19/2005): 123.42 Result: 0.28
DIA - Picked(9/19/2005): 105.60 Exited(9/22/2005): 103.87 Result: 1.73
MDY - Picked(9/19/2005): 130.15 Exited(9/22/2005): 126.64 Result: 3.51
SPY - Picked(9/19/2005): 123.04 Exited(9/22/2005): 121.15 Result: 1.89
DIA - Picked(9/22/2005): 104.28 Exited(9/23/2005): 103.77 Result: 0.51
MDY - Picked(9/22/2005): 127.54 Exited(9/23/2005): 127.02 Result: 0.52
SPY - Picked(9/22/2005): 121.54 Exited(9/23/2005): 121.07 Result: 0.47
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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. VRTrader.com staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control.
Copyright © 2005 VRTrader.com.
