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SKI Alert Update


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#1 SilentOne

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Posted 10 November 2005 - 05:46 AM

SKI predictions is too complicated for me to understand right now. If I could offer an interpretation, I would. But his alert is a stand aside call which I think is prudent. I'll keep the long term stuff, but PM trading positions will be going flat. Good luck!

cheers,

john

Last night's alert

SKI Safety Sell Alert
11/9/05

The 35-39 index generated its sell signal on Tuesday (11/8/05) for execution today on Wednesday (11/9/05).  The 15-19 and composite indices will execute their sell signals tomorrow (Thursday; 11/10/05).  The 16-20 index will sell on Friday (11/11/05; exactly and perfectly 20 trading days after the last 16-20 index buy signal at 8.81).  This is scenario #2 from last weekend’s Update.

      Safety-conscious readers will sell today (too late to do it now), tomorrow, or latest by Friday.  I recommend selling.  Friday’s price WILL be around or above the required 8.81.  We have a clear super re-buy signal IF prices keep rising and generate a new 35-39 index buy signal (that looks unlikely).  That would require re-buying at higher prices, perhaps at 9.30 (current price after a dismal USERX performance today, at 9.01, tying the high 16-20 index back price!), but that is the safe thing to do.  If prices do drop, we will re-buy on a 16-20 index buy signal in just 1-2 weeks at what will probably be new lows (below 8.31).

      This is all too complicated to explain here in detail.  Suffice it to say that the index pattern is a minor double sell (line in the sand) that is not characteristic of true SKI 92-96 index bull markets and calls the immediate great bull market into some question, but does allow for a fast re-buy on a plunge or a rise.  The indices are appropriately selling on the way up, and look to be marking a high.

    My colleague won’t be selling until a 92-96 index sell signal that won’t come for at least 30 trading days to many years and one can hold long, but selling NOW is appropriate safety-conscious action.  If we drop, be prepared to “catch a falling knife” in 1-2 weeks.  If we rise, you MUST re-buy on a new 35-39 index buy signal.

    Prices rose today exactly as the indices required, on the execution of the 35-39 sell signal.  The last time I reported selling (on 10/18/05, as prices fell below 8.81), I didn’t send an alert because there was nothing unusual or uncharacteristic of a true bull.  The current pattern IS inappropriate but too complicated to explain in detail.

    SKI says DO IT.  The indices mark the exact day (to within one day).  This is the safe thing to do and we have buy points clearly marked whichever way the market moves.  A nice set-up.


Last weekend's ramblings.

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: skigoldstocks@yahoo.com
USERX | historicals
for Monday Nov 7, 2005

The nail-biting tightrope-walker

The SKI system remains on its true and rare long-term bull market 92-96 index buy signal from 8/9/05 at USERX (the gold mutual fund) 8.07. The definitive stop on this buy signal (a 92-96 index sell signal) is currently in the 7.60 area. Note that it will take another 30 trading days before the definitive stop rises to over 8.07, thereby insuring a profit or at least no real loss.

Last weekend I wrote how the gold stocks HAD to rise on Monday (10/31/05), with USERX closing over 8.81 (the 16-20 index buy price from 10/14/05). However, I was extremely concerned at that time due to the unexpected and ominous decline in USERX on that Friday when every other gold stock index rose, as well as gold bullion's ominous pattern.

AND AN EXTRAORDINARY WEEK IT WAS! I would have enjoyed writing and talking with y'all each day in this extraordinary week. I had thought that the gold stocks would be toast on Monday, but the true bull market required that the stocks rise. As you probably know, gold bullion was toast last week as it plunged $14 last Monday and Tuesday, but the gold stocks rose, with USERX climbing over 8.81 on Monday and staying over 8.81 on Tuesday. Newspaper writers would obviously attribute the resilience of the gold stocks to the gold mining company takeover news announced on that Monday, with Placer Dome (PDG) and Goldcorp (GG) prices rising. GG constitutes nearly 25% of USERX's holdings (for a listing of its holdings, click here. That stock gapped up and quickly rose 10% before falling back during the day (after all, the ski indices only needed a "little" rise on Monday over 8.81; that gap was filled on this Friday). Although I usually operate completely as a psychologist/technician, I was (and am) concerned that the required rise occurred on a news-related event. Such events usually have only temporary effects, and markets usually revert back to doing what the technicals require. Nonetheless, the gold stocks continued to rise this week despite additional drops in the price of bullion and a surging U.S. dollar. It makes no logical sense to me, except that the 92-96 bull market signal required a continuing rise last week and requires a continuing rise this coming week, even though bullion appears to be heading still lower (Was that the low for bullion and the high for the dollar on Friday? Note that bullion had a key reversal down and that as I always say, key reversals have a 48% chance of being a fake-out).

Understandably, most readers want me to state definitively whether gold stock prices are going higher or lower. The current situation continues to be extremely complicated and precarious. I do know that this week is going to be extremely important and that is going to be another index nail-biter. I am not "singing-in-the-car" or singing anywhere. I remain nervous. Since the true bull market 92-96 index buy signal, the market has behaved in full accordance with bull market rules; no ski rule has been broken. The market, for the first time in 22 years, has displayed the same ski index patterns that occurred at the start of the late 1970's and early 1980's bull markets. For this to continue, the gold stocks must rise again this week, but the ski indices are once again requiring specific price movements almost every day this coming week. We are continuing to walk on a very thin tightrope that is not unusual for bull markets: For example, in the 1970s bull market, there were periods of months where prices would touch, keep touching and just barely stay above rising 35-39 or 92-96 index back prices (incidentally, this is the mathematical ski definition of the proverbial, "Climbing the wall of worry", and the climb is supposed to be successful if it's a true bull market). We are now just barely staying ahead of the rising 35-39 index back prices and hitting the resistance of the falling 16-20 index back prices. In bull markets, prices rise through the 16-20 index resistance.

A 16-20 index sell signal is supposed to be generated this week, 16 to 20 trading days after the index signal from 10/14/05. Period. IT MUST OCCUR. Last Wednesday (11/2/05), the gold stocks spiked higher with USERX rising to 9.07 and hitting/breaking the 16-20 index for the first time. Prices hit resistance and declined slightly, continuing to break the index towards its signal. I can't predict what day/price the signal should come because that will vary based upon each day's closing price. Again, you can look at the back prices and the index score here. Obviously, the only way to avoid the required signal is for prices to plunge, falling back below 8.81. That is not supposed to happen in a bull market, but a fall to below 8.81 will produce a strong decline (see below). Furthermore, the fact that prices got back over 8.81 continues to predict that the 16-20 sell signal price will be higher than 8.81 and will occur this week.

The index that should be driving you crazy is the 35-39 index, the current "wall of worry." That index was hit/touched/broken on Friday 10/21/05 at 8.60, one day after the low. That concerned me because in prior bull market, the hit/touch occurred on the exact day of the low (i.e., Was the index just off by one day or was that not the true final correction low?). In any case, that index has stayed hit/broken since that day, for two weeks now. Last Wednesday's rise to 9.07 witnessed a jump over all of the five back prices, but this past Thursday's and Friday's declines continued breaking that index towards a sell signal. This coming week, the back prices rise again; On Monday the back prices will be 8.68, 9.00, 9.13, 9.34, and 9.28 (current price being 8.92) and then a 9.10, a 9.38, a 9.24, and a 9.18 replace the first back price on each succeeding day this week. PRICES MUST RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEK TO AVOID THAT SELL SIGNAL. To have any reasonable chance of avoiding the sell signal, it appears that prices must rise to at least 9.01 on Monday and be over 9.13 by Tuesday, and be over 9.24 by Wednesday. That would mean a 4% USERX price rise in the face of apparently falling bullion and rising U.S. dollar prices. That certainly sounds improbable, but that's the situation.

Here's the important part concerning a potential 35-39 index sell signal. This signal is supposed to occur at a critical point (and it will!), marking either a low, a high, or the break-out line-in-the-sand. Therefore, if it occurs, prices will either need to be absolutely plunging this week into the signal, falling down to below USERX 8.31 over a three-day period. It can happen and will happen if USERX falls below 8.81. The fall will be extremely hard and fast, almost too fast to sell before it happens. Alternatively, if prices rise into the signal, as is supposed to happen after a bull market low, the market will quickly (within 2 days) hold or rise slightly to generate a new 35-39 index buy signal AND THE GOLD STOCKS WILL DEFINITIVELY CONTINUE TO SOAR. A new 35-39 index buy signal would be a blessing, an ultimate definitive entry/leverage point. The third possibility is that prices rise into the 35-39 index sell signal (and therefore, we'll also get the 16-20 sell signal almost simultaneously!), and that will be a high. It's always possible that it marks a high, but in true ski bull markets, it has NEVER marked a high. Therefore, if the rise occurs into those sell signals, safety-conscious readers can consider selling and then re-buying instantly if the new 35-39 buy signal occurs.

My conclusion bullets require an unfortunately large number of "IF" statements for this complicated, very important, and precarious week. If we rise to avoid the 35-39 index sell signal this week, or if we get the sell signal and then generate a new 35-39 index buy signal, they'll be no "IFs" next weekend: The true bull will have as complete of a 100% confirmation as I can get and the rise will continue for months, up to perhaps the USERX 12-12.50 area before the next correction returns us to perhaps USERX 9.50 again as the next bottom.

1. IF USERX falls below 8.81 on any day this week, it will produce a rapid (3-day) and very severe decline to around USERX 8.31 on the day of the 35-39 index sell signal. If you can exit quickly enough, do so, but don't sell on the 35-39 index signal, as it should be marking some type of low. This scenario is not supposed to happen and will call into question the correctness of the true bull market 92-96 index buy signal. The gold stocks have obviously been acting very bullishly by rising in the face of falling bullion and rising U.S. Dollar prices, but their strength appears to have stemmed from news-related events. IF this decline does occur, at worst, prices will play around, up and down, until the true stop, a 92-96 index sell signal. IF this decline does occur, we'll still have 39 trading days to generate a new 35-39 index buy signal that will avoid the 92-96 index sell signal, thereby keeping the true bull market intact and generating the next large, long rise. The above would be strange and unusual.

2. IF USERX rises into a 16-20 index sell signal AND a 35-39 index sell signal, safety-conscious readers can sell on the day of the 35-39 index sell signal by computing the indices at the site linked above, but then MUST re-buy on a new and super-bullish 35-39 index buy signal. IF a new buy signal is generated before next weekend, I will send a super-buy-alert email to individuals who have emailed me to express an interest in the up-coming website.

3. IF prices amazing rise about 4-5% in the next few days and avoid the 35-39 sell signal, do NOT sell on a 16-20 index sell signal. Ride the bull.

4. The SKI system remains on its 92-96 index buy signal. Remember, no action is required unless and until the 92-96 index generates a sell signal.

True Bottom Line: Gold stocks must continue to rise this week based upon the 92-96 index bull market buy signal. Bullet #1 above should not occur.

Hoping for another continuing rise this week,

Skier Jeff
11/05/05
email: skigoldstocks@yahoo.com


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#2 SilentOne

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Posted 12 November 2005 - 05:15 PM

Well, here's another reason why I didn't chase it Friday. I knew Jeff's sell signal would go into effect. We'll see.

cheers,

john

SKI Update
11/12/05

    This may be one of those rather unbelievable gold stock Updates that occur once every few years.  I mean, this one is “impossible”.
Seriously, if you own a lot of gold stocks, and a short-term bearish article will be distressing, don’t read this Update and then send me an angry email.  The SKI system remains on its true and rare long-term bull market 92-96 index buy signal from 8/9/05 at USERX (the gold mutual
fund) 8.07.  The definitive stop on this buy signal (a 92-96 index sell
signal) is currently in the 7.70 area.  Note that it will take another
25 trading days before the definitive stop rises to over 8.07, thereby insuring a profit or at least no real loss.  However, scenario #2 from last weekend’s Update did occur and the indices marked the latter part of last week as a probable HIGH in the gold stocks.

Readers who have expressed an interest in the SKI indices’ website should have received the following alert on Wednesday night:


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#3 SilentOne

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Posted 12 November 2005 - 06:39 PM

SKI Update
11/12/05

    This may be one of those rather unbelievable gold stock Updates that occur once every few years.  I mean, this one is “impossible”.
Seriously, if you own a lot of gold stocks, and a short-term bearish article will be distressing, don’t read this Update and then send me an angry email.  The SKI system remains on its true and rare long-term bull market 92-96 index buy signal from 8/9/05 at USERX (the gold mutual
fund) 8.07.  The definitive stop on this buy signal (a 92-96 index sell
signal) is currently in the 7.70 area.  Note that it will take another
25 trading days before the definitive stop rises to over 8.07, thereby insuring a profit or at least no real loss.  However, scenario #2 from last weekend’s Update did occur and the indices marked the latter part of last week as a probable HIGH in the gold stocks.

Readers who have expressed an interest in the SKI indices’ website should have received the following alert on Wednesday night:

“SKI Safety Sell Alert
11/9/05

The 35-39 index generated its sell signal on Tuesday (11/8/05) for execution today on Wednesday (11/9/05).  The 15-19 and composite indices will execute their sell signals tomorrow (Thursday; 11/10/05).  The 16-20 index will sell on Friday (11/11/05; exactly and perfectly 20 trading days after the last 16-20 index buy signal at 8.81).  This is scenario #2 from last weekend’s Update.
Safety-conscious readers will sell today (too late to do it now), tomorrow, or latest by Friday.  I recommend selling.  Friday’s price WILL be around or above the required 8.81.  We have a clear super re-buy signal IF prices keep rising and generate a new 35-39 index buy signal (that looks unlikely).  That would require re-buying at higher prices, perhaps at 9.30 (current price after a dismal USERX performance today, at 9.01, tying the high 16-20 index back price!), but that is the safe thing to do.  If prices do drop, we will re-buy on a 16-20 index buy signal in just 1-2 weeks at what will probably be new lows (below 8.31).

This is all too complicated to explain here in detail.  Suffice it to say that the index pattern is a minor double sell (line in the sand) that is not characteristic of true SKI 92-96 index bull markets and calls the immediate great bull market into some question, but does allow for a fast re-buy on a plunge or a rise.  The indices are appropriately selling on the way up, and look to be marking a high.
My colleague won’t be selling until a 92-96 index sell signal that won’t come for at least 30 trading days to many years and one can hold long, but selling NOW is appropriate safety-conscious action.  If we drop, be prepared to “catch a falling knife” in 1-2 weeks.  If we rise, you MUST re-buy on a new 35-39 index buy signal.
Prices rose today exactly as the indices required, on the execution of the 35-39 sell signal.  The last time I reported selling (on 10/18/05, as prices fell below 8.81 to 8.78), I didn’t send an alert because there was nothing unusual or uncharacteristic of a true bull.  The current pattern IS inappropriate but too complicated to explain in detail.
SKI says DO IT.  The indices mark the exact day (to within one day).
This is the safe thing to do and we have buy points clearly marked whichever way the market moves.  A nice set-up.  Please sell (he says with normal trepidation), with no IFs in this alert.”  End of alert.

With the XAU, HUI, and most notably, the South African gold stocks skyrocketing yesterday (Friday; 11/11/05; and see this superbly predictive article on the South African gold stocks from two weeks ago by Dr. Clive Roffey http://www.321gold.c...ffey110105.html ), it’s appropriate that you believe that the SKI indices are crazy (it’s the indices folks; not me) and that the gold stocks have now “broken out” to the upside on every imaginable chart in every currency.  It certainly looks that way to me too.  If I owned only South African gold shares such as GFI and HMY, I’d be “singing in the car” (note the double entendre of using “singing” as a sign of happiness and of a market top).  Yet the alert was correct and appropriate, as USERX merely closed at 9.01 on Wednesday, 8.95 on Thursday, and 9.04 on Friday, while a new
35-39 index buy signal needs a rise into the 9.30 area.  I wonder if anyone or anything other than the SKI indices indicated that the gold stocks topped last week.  And so you say that USERX is a bummer, a small gold mutual fund that is meaningless.  Yet the renowned Aden sisters regularly recommend USERX’s sister, UNWPX for investment purposes.  All I know is that the 35-39 index sell signal was executed on Wednesday and that prices rose PERFECTLY into the 16-20 index sell signal on Friday.
For 15 years, USERX was composed only of South African gold stocks and the indices worked.  Now, USERX has very few South Africans and is heavily weighted with Goldcorp (GG) warrants (symbols GGWSC, GGWSA, and
GGWWF) that failed to move this week, accounting for USERX’s dismal performance that came EXACTLY on the indices’ execution days.  And the indices still work.

A GOLD CRASH NEXT WEEK IS POSSIBLE.  I shouldn’t have written that last sentence since that looks to be impossible and I am making a fool out of myself.  I wrote last weekend that the 11/4/05 key reversal down in gold bullion may have marked a low.  It did.  Gold is now FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS UP.  That can now mark a high.  It may not, but it can.  SKI is safe.  How many times in the past five years have you witnessed “impossible” SKI events/signals?  The alerts are saved for the high probability times and, by my count, are 15 out of 16 in producing instantaneous price movements (the incorrect one being this past Summer’s sell alert that marked an EXACT low on a 92-96 sell signal) over the past four years.  My colleague surprised me and sold Friday’s close, so he is as stupid as the indices.

This is a nice set-up:  If prices rise a few percent, the 35-39 index will buy at the end of next week, and a large rise lasting several months will follow, whereas, if the crash occurs, the 16-20 index will buy within 1-2 weeks.  The crash will cause the short-term trend to bottom, the long-term trend will remain up, but the intermediate trend requires a new 35-39 index buy signal within a month or two after the 16-20 index buy signal.

Again, I certainly agree that this sell alert looks like the craziest of signals.  And if the crash occurs this coming week, it will probably look like some type of manipulation (and maybe it is, but how do the indices mathematically predict such events right before they are about to happen?).  We just witnessed, 2 weeks ago, the perfect timing of the major mining merger that arrived at the moment needed by the indices.
I’m wondering if “something” bad is about to happen this week.  I could recount many such “somethings” happening in the past.  Five years ago, two days before the Bank of England announced the start of its gold sales, the indices generated their signals for execution the day before the announcement, with the gold stocks “breaking out”, only to see them plunge on the announcement into a SKI buy signal two months later.  In that same summer, with USERX rising for no apparent reason while on a SKI buy signal, one day before the Washington accord that limited central bank gold sales the indices were generating the topping signal, executing right after the banks made their announcements and USERX rose 20% in one day into a high.  And the list goes on.

I ask myself this:  If this week was a breakout, why didn’t the gold stocks rise on Monday and Tuesday when gold bullion was rising?  If the gold stocks had simply risen on those days, I’d be writing about the great rise that is upon us.  The indices required a rise on those days in order to ride along/above the 35-39 day index and stay near the top of the “wall of worry”.  Instead, the gold stocks declined on those days, generating the 35-39 index sell signal for the rise on Wednesday and delaying the 16-20 index sell signal for the rise on Friday.  Since I believe in the indices’ validity, such price movements have “a reason”.  And I imagine that you noticed how nicely USERX managed to just barely stay above that critical 8.81 on Tuesday, closing at 8.83.
It actually needed to stay over 8.82 on that day in order to generate the 16-20 index sell signal by the required 20th day (Friday).

Perhaps the indices will be wrong this time and there will be the great new 35-39 index buy signal by the end of this week and a new SKI email
buy alert.  I doubt it.  Perhaps the gold prices will plunge this week
and we’ll have a new and difficult-to-get-the-courage-to-execute SKI email buy alert marking the low.  Although I now do not have any money at risk, but I am worried that the indices, my “research babies”, by marking a seemingly impossible occurrence, will be ridiculed as the gold stocks surge ahead on Monday.  I actually should be short the gold stocks as of Friday’s close.

Bottom Line:  We are supposed to witness a fast, hard, 10% crash in the gold stocks starting next week.  I’d love to see USERX close up a tiny
1-3 cents on Monday before crashing, so as to form a perfect run pattern into a high and then a low (i.e., 2 Up and 6 Down), and for gold to have a 6th tiny up day, but that is wishful thinking.

Best wishes,
Jeffski

P.S. I wish the gold stocks had simply risen properly last week, but it didn’t happen.  I apologize for any distress that this Update might cause.  I certainly understand (and empathize with) the stresses of owning gold stocks.


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#4 SilentOne

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Posted 18 November 2005 - 09:26 AM

My conclusion bullets require an unfortunately large number of "IF" statements for this complicated, very important, and precarious week. If we rise to avoid the 35-39 index sell signal this week, or if we get the sell signal and then generate a new 35-39 index buy signal, they'll be no "IFs" next weekend: The true bull will have as complete of a 100% confirmation as I can get and the rise will continue for months, up to perhaps the USERX 12-12.50 area before the next correction returns us to perhaps USERX 9.50 again as the next bottom.


Jeff old boy, you must be pulling your hair out. :lol:

I for one appreciate your system, but man talk about whip saw this year.

I'm not sure how we finish today, but if USERX closes above 9.5, I assume he will send out a 35-39 buy signal.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#5 swanstkdh

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Posted 18 November 2005 - 09:41 AM

This guy must be going nuts. It is all way to crazy making for me. What is the thing really talking about. Ok- I'm lost

#6 no_mind

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Posted 18 November 2005 - 02:20 PM

I'm not sure how we finish today, but if USERX closes above 9.5, I assume he will send out a 35-39 buy signal.


I e-mailed Jeff Kern on Thursday, 11/17, and asked him the status of his system and he replied the same day with the following:

"The 35-39 index will buy on Monday IF prices stay over
9.43 tomorrow (Friday). The 35-39 means that the
great bull is confirmed again. Prices can rise or
fall immediately after it, but a fall would be brief.
It simply means that prices will rise over the next
few months and will not go below 9.50 again, for
years."

Best,
Tom

#7 no_mind

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Posted 19 November 2005 - 03:49 PM

Here's the latest SKI, which states that the e-mail I received from him (note above post) was incorrect so there is no 35-39 buy signal at this time. If he succeeds in opening a website and ends up charging for it, you can count me out, lol. Anyway, I liked the fact that the pm stocks pulled back on lighter volume Friday so I dipped my toe in and bought a little RGLD & GOLD. I think the odds are better for a breakout of the HUI than a breakdown, by at least 1% (51/49) so it's worth a shot, lol. Time will tell the tale. Best, Tom for Monday November 21, 2005 ...waiting for the new buy signal The SKI system remains on its true and rare long-term bull market 92-96 index buy signal from 8/9/05 at USERX (the gold stock mutual fund) 8.07. The definitive stop on this buy signal (a 92-96 index sell signal) is currently in the 7.80 area. Note that it will take only another 19 trading days before the definitive stop rises to over 8.07, thereby insuring a profit or at least no real loss. Remember how when the 92-96 buy signal occurred, I was writing how it would take 95 trading days before the stop would rise to the break-even point? That time is now within reach. The 92-96 index buy signal is supposed to last for many years before the stop is eventually hit. The simple and straightforward conclusion of this Update is (if you only want a brief reading experience): Buy gold stocks on a new 35-39 index buy signal. Last week I was of-course writing a "SKI Safety Sell Update", having advised selling gold stocks on 11/9, 11/10, 11/11, or 11/14/05 at prices ranging between USERX 8.95 and 9.04. A buy signal awaited whichever way the gold stocks moved during the coming week: A 16-20 index buy signal awaited a 70 cent (8%) drop this week OR a new 35-39 index buy signal awaited a rise of about 30 cents (4%). The 35-39 index had sold on 11/9/05 and the 16-20 index had sold on 11/11/05, yielding a "double sell signal, a line-in-the-sand" and safety/caution was appropriate. When the gold stocks broke above that line, they exploded. After the gold stocks declined on Tuesday (11/15/05; USERX = 8.85), touching the 15-19 index and composite back prices, they exploded with gold on Wednesday and Thursday, INSTANTLY RISING DIRECTLY INTO THE 35-39 INDEX BACK PRICES THAT WERE AT THEIR PRIOR HIGHS FROM 9/29/05 AT USERX 9.17-9.50. If prices weren't going to collapse into the 16-20 index buy signal this week, they appropriately rose exactly into the 35-39 index buy area. I had thought that if prices were going to rise over about 9.30 and stay there for a few days, that the 35-39 index would generate its buy signal, but the rise was so short and so fast that the 35-39 index did not have time, yet, to generate the signal. As I wrote last weekend, the safety sell looked to be crazy by my personal view, but the indices dictated that APPARENTLY STUPID (in hindsight) advice. Bearish news did occur with pronouncements from Germany and France suggesting increased gold sales, but bullish news then came with Russian and Argentinian gold purchases. The only thing that matters is time and price, how people (markets) react to news. USERX ROSE EXACTLY TO THE 35-39 INDEX BACK PRICES, BUT STILL HAS NOT GENERATED THE NEW BUY SIGNAL AS USERX EXACTLY TIED ITS YEARLY HIGH PRICE on Thursday. In detail, note once again the mathematical precision. Before Wednesday, prices were below all of the back 35-39 day prices (index signs of -5). Wednesday's explosion to 9.23 rose above two of the 35-39 index back prices (an index sign of -1). Thursday's rise to 9.50 exceeded 4 back prices and tied the high! (an index sign of +4). Prices fell on Friday to 9.45 (an index sign for the day at +3). Add Friday's five signs together (-5, -5, -1, +4, and +3 = -4). Multiplying that sum by 4 completes the computation of the signs (equals -16). Subtracting the prior day's total of -48 (computed the prior day) from the current total of -16 (-16 - -48 = +32) and dividing by 2 yields a +16. Lastly, adding this sum (+16) to the sign total (-16) yielded the rare PERFECT ZERO. That is not a "change in the sign" signal. THE 35-39 INDEX HAS NOT YET GIVEN ITS BUY SIGNAL. (In hastily responding to several 100 emails on Thursday night, I apologize for writing to some that any close over 9.43 on Friday would generate the signal. I realized my error after about 30 such responses). Folks, the 35-39 index has NOT generated its new buy signal yet. I have not sent out a brief SKI Buy Alert, but will when the signal is generated. I await that signal to buy. I guess and expect that to happen very soon. That signal is the "all clear buy" signal that characterizes true bull markets. In the past bull markets, it has been the signal to add, leverage, or safely buy the gold stocks for another strong market leg up and has never lost. I do not believe that this past Thursday was a double top high, but discipline requires that I wait for the new buy signal. IF USERX CLOSES AT 9.30 OR HIGHER ON MONDAY, THE BUY SIGNAL IS EXECUTED BY THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY'S CLOSE. It appears that USERX would need to fall below 9.21 on Tuesday to avoid the signal. Note that prices will need to be falling in order to avoid the buy signal. I like that set-up: It means that it is possible that the index buy will occur after some retracement here and that the profits lost by selling on the double sell signal will be minimized. It is even possible that prices fall to avoid the buy signal until about 12/11/05. Of-course, it is also possible that prices will fall fast enough to completely avoid the buy signal, but that isn't supposed to happen in a bull market. I am not predicting anything until the signal is generated. I am saying that the indices are smarter than I am and that it is set up that way for some "behavioral reason". If prices close higher on Monday, I have to re-buy by Tuesday's close. But it is also possible that prices retrace for a buy signal on Friday. The market is open on Friday. SKI may have to work on Thanksgiving Thursday, sending out email buy alerts for Friday. If you are waiting for the buy signal, please be in contact with your email over the holidays if we haven't gotten the signal early in the week. There have been many years where I receive a signal for the Friday of Thanksgiving week when the market is usually very quiet. In fact, that Friday is a traditional seasonal buy point in the gold stocks and my indices. Personal Notes: My colleague, in his seventies, who sold at 9.04, was sufficiently berated by HIS wife for having convinced her that selling during a true SKI bull market was the safety-conscious thing to do, that he bought back on Thursday at 9.50. Since he puts all of THEIR savings into the gold stocks, he always discusses buys/sells with her and they view it as a joint decision, and she wanted to buy in anticipation of the new buy signal. Since it is supposed to be a true bull market, he should be fine, and he gets enough lifetime income from his annuity to be financially secure (unless there is rampant inflation and therefore, his need to own gold stocks to maintain financial security, as the current true bull suggests). This week I, surprisingly, received 50 times more positive email than hate mail. I can't understand that, after having recommended selling a few days before a price explosion. I am not stressed, upset, or depressed. I knew exactly when to exit and when I was supposed to re-enter. I become emotionally distraught when I act inappropriately. But I did have an SSI (SKI Sleep Index) on Thursday night, fearful that gold would rise another $15 to $500 and that I would get the buy signal at a terribly high price! The SSI suggests that Thursday was a short-term high, but my fear could still be validated if the goldies fly on Monday and Tuesday. The lesson to be learned from last week: The old adage, "During a true bull market, surprises will be to the upside." Congratulations to those who refused to sell. Some readers had asked me why I didn't go short, and my answer was that it's dangerous to go short during a bull. Please be kind and join me in hoping for a little retracement into the buy signal. The website is progressing. Best wishes, Jeff 11/19/05

#8 SilentOne

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Posted 21 November 2005 - 02:47 PM

IF USERX CLOSES AT 9.30 OR HIGHER ON MONDAY, THE BUY SIGNAL IS EXECUTED BY THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY'S CLOSE. It appears that USERX would need to fall below 9.21 on Tuesday to avoid the signal. Note that prices will need to be falling in order to avoid the buy signal.


Hi Tom,

Well if we close green today and tomorrow isn't a complete bust, Jeff issues a 35-39 buy signal. That would be the all clear. Gee I hope for Jeff's sake he gets it right this time. Just kidding Jeff, I do like what you do.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#9 no_mind

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Posted 21 November 2005 - 04:14 PM

John, Looks like Jeff's got a buy; he didn't want it this way, he wanted cheaper prices. Tuesday will be interesting. Friday I told my dad (he's 87) I bought some gold stocks and showed him a picture of the HUI and told him I was looking for a breakout and he shook his head and said "What some people will do with their money". That was the sentiment I was looking for, if he had approved I would have been worried, lol. Best, Tom

#10 TomD

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Posted 21 November 2005 - 04:31 PM

aaah...when rock bands could actually scare middle america....those were good good days.
Health Canada has just released a study which shows that 100% of the population who have been exposed to whole milk products will die.