HUI & XAU OUTLOOK

The monthly pivots are the same as posted here: GOLD BOARD

The weekly "rounding top" is still suggesting a very weak stock group. YES we have had a LARGE MOVE in gold and some of the stocks, but percenatge wise the stocks are still lagging to some degree.
Wisdom suggest that it is just a matter of time, short time, before the stocks take off in a big way.
Wisdom however does not always make us money. Patterns and good clean TA makes us money. Anybody out there have a clue as to what happens next??? I don't!!



Help, suggestions, comments

Hi mss, I can't believe that thing hasn't broken upward yet. Then again nor has the HUI/gold ratio in a meaningful way, and judging from the miner action, it isn't that surprising. The best have enjoyed a nice move, the laggards are showing life, and the dogs still haven't done much. When this thing really gets going, everything should go up ... a lot. cheers, john

sure looks a lot like Petch's running correctio, with a high-level consolidation

http://www.gold-eagl...etch070704g.gif

as does my favorite, MGN

http://tinyurl.com/e2r6s

>>The best have enjoyed a nice move, the laggards are showing life, and the dogs still haven't done much. When this thing really gets going, everything should go up ... a lot. << that's what i believe. i only held a dog (drooy) after yesterday because right now i am looking at what will not go down alot in the event of a correction. i was up nearly 20% on GSS before they announced the dilution yesterday (which of course followed an upgrade) and still managed to get out 8-9% ahead. when i saw GSS getting hammered i remembered what Jnavin said about the swiftness and ferocity of gold corrections and sold everthing except drooy. turned out to be the right move so far..... but like you said when they start piling on everything will fly like it's 2003 all over again, imo . ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 10 December 2005 - 02:52 PM.

Made a lot of money last time around, but cannot seam to get a good grip on this move. Have some silver stocks from way back. Oh well----

My guess is that we will soon break out and that pattern will be a bull flag of sorts in hind sight. I think this sector is unlike stocks. The Companies in the HUI/XAU are well known and highly bid up or beat up from previous runs. They are not nec. the best values or investments. A great gold mine is not like MSFT or TSAR. It doesn't grow. So the hot money flows out from bloated boring popular co.s to new discoveries to capture the sharp initial bursts from previously anonymous mines. I think we are seeing early insiders and gold bugs chasing new stories for potentially huge gains right now. AUY, TRE, SLW etc are pretty new meat. The HUI/XAU should start jumping soon when the institutions wake up and seek higher caps. Then of course your Mom's lawn guy and his dentist will start buying. What is the best small uranium play? Anyone? I want to have one in case Dines is right and they go up 40,000%. I am eyeing FDC, STM, UEX, URIX.

tyx:irx ratio is similar to when the Gold bull market started
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?...YX:$IRX,uu[p,a]maoanyay[d19901101,30051231][pb2!b16!b32!b64!b128!b256!f][vc60][iUb10!Ue6,128,128!Le2,32,32!Le32,64,64!Le64,128,128][J17637022,Y]&pref=G

Here is Jesse's gold chart, showing the new Gold channel
http://jessel.100meg...e3.com/Gold.jpg

aiming for 563, then 875
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[d,a]maclyyay[d198001%2027,30051227][pb16!f][vc60][i][j31795661,y]

monthly MA crossover
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[g,a]maclyyay[d19790531,30051231][pb50!b200!c21!c155][vc60][iut!lb14!la12,26,9!lm12][j13188324,y]&listNum=7

Dow/Gold ratio has a long way to go
http://home.earthlin.../com-dow-au.htm
http://www.geocities...g_calc_0301.gif
http://img101.exs.cx...io0219056jq.gif

no negative divergences, yet, so I think any correction is sharp and brief, maybe even intra-day

Gold monthly, ewave 9 waves up, then correction, now in next big wave up
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[d,a]maclyyay[d20000827,30051227][pb16!f][vc60][iua10,20,12][j43044187,y]

looks like a new ballgame
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[d,a]dalayyay[d19970410,30050410][pf][vc60][iup100,3,45][j48842983,y]

HUI just breaking out of a long-term consolidation
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[d,a]daclyyay[d20001101,30051224][pb50!b200!c20!f][vc60][i][j53450380,y]
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[p,a]maclyyay[d20000827,30051227][pb16!f][vc60][ili5,3][j48094193,y

XAU: I think people will be surprised and not able to get in
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$xau,uu[d,a]macanyay[d19840131,30051231][pf][vc60][i][j36089174,y]

Here is one of Grin's
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[g,a]daclyyay[d20041101,30051231][pb50!b20!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][j63473110,y]

since 1980
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[d,a]macayyay[d19800127,30051227][pb16!f][vc60][i][j33584683,y]

ed,

Stay away from GSS. I am. Much better bet in the juniors like DEZ, AUY, GRS, CDY etc.

12:17 (Dow Jones) Golden Star Resources (GSS) down after surprising with C$82M stock offering yesterday. UBS notes GSS management had indicated willingness to sell non-core assets and equity interests when asked about expected 2006 cash shortfall. GSS also wants to buy junior company St. Jude Resources (SJD.V) in a share-exchange deal, but St. Jude holders won't vote on it until next week. It's unclear whether they will accept the "stale terms of the bid," UBS notes. GSS down 8% at US$2.44. On TSX Venture Exchange, SJD.V recently down 10% at C$2.05.

cheers,

john

ed,

Stay away from GSS. I am. Much better bet in the juniors like DEZ, AUY, GRS, CDY etc.

12:17 (Dow Jones) Golden Star Resources (GSS) down after surprising with C$82M stock offering yesterday. UBS notes GSS management had indicated willingness to sell non-core assets and equity interests when asked about expected 2006 cash shortfall. GSS also wants to buy junior company St. Jude Resources (SJD.V) in a share-exchange deal, but St. Jude holders won't vote on it until next week. It's unclear whether they will accept the "stale terms of the bid," UBS notes. GSS down 8% at US$2.44. On TSX Venture Exchange, SJD.V recently down 10% at C$2.05.

cheers,

john

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thanx, John....i'll take your advice.

ed rader

Speaking of "dogs," how about MGN? Sheesh! On MSS's rate chart, I think the "die" is more likely than the "break out." Doug