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[SilentOne]

Hi,

I posted this comment on another board and I am looking for some feedback here.

I remember seeing this article posted by Alf Field last summer. I have to say that I was in 100% agreement with Alf then.

Elliott Wave and the Gold Price

As discussed, the failed 5th possibility is very likely now to be the case. Alf does a gracious job of explaining why Bob Prechter has been bearish up until now. I think he is too kind towards Bob, as Prechter has ignored the commodity bull, passing it off as another correction as well. The fine points of Elliott wave, its misgivings and strengths are accurately described IMO. This is the most accurate ewave read that I have seen in the last year. Nothing has approached it so far. In fact, I can find half dozen bearish examples out there that have taken up Prechter's lead. And they have been wrong.

The question now is have the ewave counts and targets changed since he wrote this? And what wave are we in?

Alf's Count

The only criticism I have had with Alf's original ewave count is the fib relationship between the lengths of waves 1 and 3. He has an awkward number of 126/180=1.43 A more likely fib would suggest a minimum of 1.62, which would give a $526 gold target as the top of wave 3 (if $320 is taken as the wave 2 low). This is the minimum target for gold on this entire first leg IMO. Higher fibs may eventually apply, but I prefer to work with this one for now.

There are 2 other possible bullish wave counts: 1) that the gold wave count has already subdivided, meaning that 1,2 wave combinations have formed which is ultra bullish. That would mean the peaks in May 2001, Feb. 2003 are wave 1 peaks and the ensuing corrections wave 2s. No way to know at this point, or 2) the possibility of an extended 5th wave of this entire rise is now in progress which would again give a target of $525 and more likely $550 IMO (having $382 as the 3rd wave peak and 4th wave triangle terminating at $346).

3 yr Gold Chart London PM Fix

The problem with counting $382 as a 3rd wave peak is the MACD. Because it has been surpassed by a higher MACD peak this year, it says to me that a 3rd wave or extended 5th wave is now in progress. But we cannot know until more progress is made.

For further analysis consider that:

- If wave 1 topped at $382 as suggested, wave 2 bottomed either at $320 or $342 and even possibly $346. Here I cannot decide this, but time-wise I lean towards the $346 bottom because it would give an ABCDE (symmetrical triangle) to $346 which took 6 months to complete. Wave 1 would have been 22 months almost to the week, and wave 2 then 6 months to the week, giving wave 2 as 27% of wave 1 time-wise. This is close enough to a 26.4% fib for me. The only issue here is that triangles are virtually always in 4th wave positions which bugs me.

Net net we are on our way to $525 in 5 waves from the low 300s in POG.

So thus why I am a big bull. It is important to see gold break out in a 3rd wave soon as well as the gold indices.

Another point to consider is what silver is doing. It is doing exactly what I have expected and nothing has changed in that regard either. I think siver is leading gold.

cheers,

john