19 replies to this topic

[Islander]

The wave patterns seem to me to suggest that gold starts its fall move early this year. I have a buy now. Slowly at first, then at 1033 it is a signal to go all in for a ride to the 1300+ area. The market will retest its old March lows in the fall I think, so it will be rocky. But with the Treasury on our side the motivation to own gold will remain. I am concerned about a deflationary trend, but it will flip to inflation by 2010 I think. Best, Islander

[senorBS]

The wave patterns seem to me to suggest that gold starts its fall move early this year. I have a buy now.

Slowly at first, then at 1033 it is a signal to go all in for a ride to the 1300+ area. The market will retest its old March lows in the fall I think, so it will be rocky. But with the Treasury on our side the motivation to own gold will remain.

I am concerned about a deflationary trend, but it will flip to inflation by 2010 I think.

Best, Islander

I see nothing bullish now, I think lower prices could lie ahead. I may change my mind but there is mucho risk in Senor's eyes.

BSing away

Senor

[Tor]

DOLLAH IS DECIDING JUST BEFORE G8 WHETHER IT IS ABOUT TO EMBARK ON A WAVE TRES UP OR A C WAVE DOWN IMO. This has BIG implications for oro.....

[swanstkdh]

well everyone is on different sides. Must really pay attention now. This is not for the faint of heart.

[dharma]

interesting thread! if the broad market is in a down wave here either b of b or an impulse the sucking sound will bring gold w/it. if the 9yr low wasnt last fall then this summer/fall will be the 9 year low. bottom line: i will be adding trading positions back, but not yet. it is tempting and we may get a bounce from near these levels. imho, gold will be the place to be, but its about timing in the trading account. i do think longer term the dollar is toast. w/the huge debt and low interest rates, the dollar will be jettisoned. dharma ps. what has my interest is the grain harvest(months away) green shoots are an imagination @this point gold and oil are in bull markets the debt is a heavy load. it reminds me of germany after ww1

[inamosa]

agree with Dharma pretty much on the whole i still anticipate $860-880 to be tested before this wave down is complete

[Islander]

It is wonderful to hear from everyone, but my perspective is based on my buy in at 200 to 250. It makes a man foolish possibly. Take care we have a valuable collection on the board. and I value every opinion. Thanks, Islander.

Edited by Islander, 07 July 2009 - 07:50 PM.

[dharma]

this may not be any different than anyone else here, gold is not a religion for me. @this time i think it offers the most potential, and having seen this dance before, i am aware of how quickly and far it can run . so, my attention is here. and it will be until it fully expresses itself,( not one limit up day yet.) we have a ways to go here in price and time. and i am going to pick my shots on where to add. i am very long and i trade. when something else appears to be a better vehicle i will jump ship. all the best dharma

[inamosa]

Dharma, I think you speak for a number of us here I too have separate accounts - one is used mainly for multi-year positions and occasionally multi-month positions, and the aim there is generally to take advantage of buying and holding bull markets (of which gold is one of very few right now) as well as unsustainable valuations (I've recently picked up a starter position in natural gas because I believe it will not stay at current valuations for very long, but I'm prepared to hold for years if need be, almost like Jim Rogers's timeframe) The other is used for multi-day to multi-week positions and sometimes multi-week to multi-month positions as well (including in gold, silver and gold and silver miners)...and that is one that is obviously watched more closely by me and more pertinent to the discussion that normally takes place here, which is focused on short-term and intermediate-term movements Timeframe is very important when you're talking about where something is headed Talking about where gold is headed in the next four, five weeks...is different from talking about where the second leg of the commodities bull could take it this time next year, or a few years from now I think posters here need to be cognizant of that, and Islander, I hope you're cognizant of that at this point, if you weren't before

[dharma]

breaking 920 opens the door to alysomji's #s. looking for a low in the next couple of weeks. it may not prove to be the low. but it will be a low. sept-oct has some weakness as well. hedged w/faz to a certain extent. dharma