19 replies to this topic

[The_Gold_Miner]

Yep, direction is not very clear right now....

[PMILLY]

Thunders, I do not know how to post charts, but I am looking at mining charts such as NEM and also the XAU chart. The HUI does have me worried but that could be a shake out. Gold Miner, I have the same EW count as your guy and almost went short today as well for a short term move but decided to wait for the buy signal since it seems as if we are close. I would like to see one more low on NEM to complete the 5th of the 4th, but I think it's possible we see a failure or truncated low. We'll see. Still looking to buy on a dip this morning (Tuesday). Pmilly

[SilentOne]

Hi GM et al. 5th wave down for this wave set from XAU 106.4 is out there somewhere (looks like 3-4 and 3-5 complete. Zig-zag targets where A=C gives an 86ish target for the XAU while C=62% of A gives a bottom right around the lows (unlikely fib and not what I am expecting now). Wave A down was the drop from 113.41 to 92.78. The question is when and how we get another leg down. Rather than play it short, I think the better trade is to wait for the long. Think about it. If we complete a zig-zag that totals 28ish points (ie. A=C), the retrace is a nice big number on the XAU. The 5th wave down here will be unpredicatable IMO. Could extend and really slam bulls, or come up short with a near triple bottom. On a self-assessment note, I can't believe I didn't prepare myself better for this potential outcome, as wave-wise I usually don't miss much. And if I am unsure wave-wise, I normally don't take the risk. Good luck all. cheers, john PS Still long thinking this is the best play for '04. We'll see.

[stockbucks_coffee]

low risk at shakeout broken support? just got in on drooy,gss,bgo,wht,kry. will see... as got similar trades last wednesday for modest profit sold on friday. best sc.

[The_Gold_Miner]

Covered my positions for a st profit. Time to set up for the long.

[teki]

Nice going Gold Miner! Looks like we are just about there.

[teki]

Added two more longs to my basket (gss, abx). I can count 5 waves down on hui/xau on both the hourly and 5m charts. But once again keeping very tight stops till the daily cleary shows a reversal.

[teki]

Note to self, you get no points for bottom picking! Looks like I was early (wrong) again. But I'm sitting tight for now.

[stockbucks_coffee]

yeah early for me too. stronger shakeout than expected. still looks like accumulation/buying at 'low/bottom.' s/t inds. still up best sc.

[PMILLY]

I am also long (NEM and BGO). I bought early in the day, so obviously I am behind right now. I am surprised by how much the mining stocks have sold off considering how well the metal has held up after the initial gap down. Many times gold stocks have a nasty shake out right before a move up, but I gotta admit that I am a nervous long . As always, must wait and see. I'm interested to see what the volume of the XAU comes in at. It should be less than the the last time it touched this region in order to set up a volume buy signal. If anybody has this figure at the end of the day I would love to see it. Pmilly