TheVRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 11/23/2009
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2009, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2009, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
LEIBOVIT FILES | by MarkLeibovit
Leibovit Files
Monday, November 23, 2009
"It's tough making predictions, especially about the future,"--Yogi Berra.
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
November 23 - 27, 2009:
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MONDAY, November 23, 2009:
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reports its fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings. HPis expected to report earnings of $1.13 a share, up from $1.03 a yearago, on revenue of $30.4 billion. Revenue is expected to be down 9.7%.The key is how HP, the top PC maker, describes its PC business. Itmarkets computers largely through retailers. So it has a big consumerfranchise. But it also has a big corporate business.
Also, Campbell Soup (CPB).
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TUESDAY, November 24, 2009:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Bookseller Barnes & Noble (BKS), whose Nook e-book is sold outuntil January, ketchup maker H.J. Heinz (HNZ) and clothier J. Crew(JCG).
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WEDNESDAY, November 25, 2009:
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Bookseller Borders (BGP), farm and construction equipment makerDeere (DE) and upscale retailer Tiffany (TIF).
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THURSDAY, November 26, 2009:
US Holiday: Thanksgiving
All Markets Closed
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FRIDAY, November 27, 2009:
NYSE Early Close - 1:00 ET
Bonds Early Close 2:00 ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
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STOCKS - ACTION alert -
More of the same on Friday as stocks opened lower but closed off oftheir intra day lows. For the session the Dow was off 14.28 at10,318.16, the S&P 500 was off 3.52 at 1091.38, and the NasdaqComposite was off 10.78 to 2146.04. Volume dropped from Thursday andbreadth was negative.
In almost a carbon copy of Thursday, stocks opened lower on astronger dollar and weakness in Europe. Early losses were once againpared as sellers had no real interest in taking the market lower asevidenced by the drop in volume.
For the moment I will remain on my TIMER DIGEST 'Buy' signal, but asPlatinum subscribers know I will trade the downside via inverse ETFsfor all markets as necessary. It is beginning to look more and morelike the market will back off here into early December so stay tuned.
The U.S Dollar Index is rallying (again) and there is growingspeculation in the technical community that we're about to experience ahealthy rally. There are enough traders and hedge funds out there withenough cash that could make this a self-fulfilling prophecy. In otherwords, getting the momentum going to the point that key resistancelevels are penetrated would trigger short covering and new buying andaccomplish their goal. Yes, Virginia, the markets are manipulated!
Some Negative Volume Reversals ™ were posted last week and ifdon't quickly take out last week's highs, I have to give those signalsthe benefit of the doubt for the very short-term. Also, GovernmentSachs (GS) has put in an top following a Negative Volume Reversal ™- see chart below - which cannot be ignored.
http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_platinum/GetVRChart.asp
Though my overall thinking points to a higher market well into nextyear, as traders we have to be aware the market could quickly test ourthinking and turn south on us.
Base metals (DBB +0.93%) and health care (XLV +0.73%) led the way onFriday, while gold (GLD +0.57%) tacked on more gains.
Utilities (XLU +0.45%) and consumer staples (XLP +0.15%) alsooutperformed, giving Friday's trade a defensive slant.
The Nasdaq Composite is once again approaching its 50 day movingaverage while the Russell 2000 (small cap index) had its entire dailyrange below the 50 day moving average for the second straight day. TheS&P 400 (mid cap index) closed below its 50 day moving average forthe first time in two weeks.
The charts are looking bearish yet again. The S&P and NASDAQ hittheir fourth new highs in four months, but each time the technicalindicators hit lower highs. This is a very strong negative technicaldivergence. Meanwhile, the Transports have set up a triple top and theSmall Caps are trading below their 50 day moving averages. The onlyindex looking somewhat strong is the Dow Industrials, which hasbenefited more than the other indexes by the weak Dollar that helps thestock prices of exporters.
For the week, the Dow was up 0.46%, the S&P 500 was off 0.19%,the Nasdaq Composite was off 1.01%, the Russell 2000 was off 0.27%, andthe S&P 400 (mid cap index) was off 1.54%.
The Dow has run into stiff resistance in the 10,450 area which willrequire some real juice to get through. We could be on the verge of ahealthy and much needed correction here, but the bears must show moreresolve than they have the past couple of sessions.
As for the bulls, in order to break out and carry this marketsubstantially higher, they will need an influx of cash from thesidelines to take out overhead resistance. With the 'wait and see'attitude of traders regarding the economy over the last couple ofweeks, that could be a tall order
indeed.
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DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
A later day rally lifted the Transports, but they still closed withlosses in line with the broader market. The Dow Jones TransportationIndex declined 10.57 or 0.27% to 3945.52.
The IYT formed a Negative Volume Reversal ™ on Thursday and thecharts is showing a clear triple top.
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GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
Despite early session losses and the subsequent rally in the Dollar,Gold futures rose Friday for a sixth straight session to a new recordhigh, ending the week with their third weekly gain. Spot gold was up6.30 to 1150.90, not too far from the all-time high of 1153.90. Silverwas down 0.03 to 18.51, platinum was up 2 at 1445, and palladium wasdown 6 to 361.
The rally in Gold is well underway, but we've made significantupside progress in a very short period of time. On September 29, SpotGold was trading at 984.10 and this past Wednesday's high was 1153.95 -over 17% gain in less than two months! Gold needs to quickly take out1153.95 or we can begin to again build a case for another correction(back to 1070?). In truth, I feel we should instead experience anupward acceleration in price, but I don't want to get greedy. Indeed, Ihad been forecasting a rally to 1120-1130 after we bottomed out at 1025on October 28. If we break through 1153.95, my next upside objectivewould be 1175-1185.
What about Silver? Well, it managed to breakout last week to 18.88,but watching Silver rally is aking to watching paint dry. I am bullish,but gains have been slow in coming.
Investors interest in gold is partly reflected in the continuedinflow seen in SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest gold exchange-traded fund.The ETF's holdings stood at 1,117.49 metric tons as of Thursday, thehighest level since July. Meanwhile, holdings in the iShares SilverTrust, the biggest silver ETF, rose to a new record high above 9,000metric tons.
Copper futures settled up 0.0270 at 3.1080.
The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only anadditional $50 per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 permonth. Email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com to sign up today!
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BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries hovered near the unchanged level all day Friday, astraders wait for the results of this week's auctions. The long bondfuture gained 2/32 to 120 28/32.
Traders are preparing for next week's $118 billion in Treasuryauctions, despite the holiday shortened week. The Treasury Departmentsays it will sell $44 billion in 2-year notes on Monday, matching therecord amount of the securities sold last month. That sale will befollowed by $42 billion in 5-year notes on Tuesday and $32 billion in7-year notes the day after that -- all crammed in before theThanksgiving holiday. The latter two sales set new records for the mostever sold and are $1 billion more than October's sales.
Two-year note yields fell to their lowest levels this year onconcerns that the U.S. economy won't rebound from the recession asquickly or strongly as markets had accounted for. Two year notes aregenerally considered the best barometer for economic prospects andfuture interest rates.
Treasuries are beginning to slip here a bit, as markets areanticipating either a rise in interest rates or a rally in the USDollar Index.
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CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil fell 0.74 to 76.72 on the stronger Dollar and economic concerns.
Gasoline futures rose 0.0111 to 1.9806 after Valero Energy Corp.said the largest U.S. refiner is shutting down its refinery in DelawareCity, Del.
Natural gas finished the day up 0.082 at 4.424.
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US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The US Dollar Index tacked on further gains as a safe haven playFriday after recent economic data suggests the economy may not berecovering as quickly as many had hoped and expected. The US DollarIndex is up 0.363 to 75.656. As mentioned above, we may be setting thestage for another rally try here. Positive Volume Reversals ™ areevident in the long ETFs for the U.S. Dollar both in the US and Canada,so someone is nibbling. Should it come, a rally would be quite sharp,but I don't think it change the major trend which is lower. A rally inthe Dollar will like be coincident with a lower stock market and alower bond market. Gold is another question altogether. Recent historysays Gold should decline, but I'm not so sure about that as the inverserelationship between these two markets as of late as been eroding.
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URANIUM - ACTION alert
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
November 16, 2009 Posting
Spot: $44.00 DOWN 1.50. Bull market high in the cash market was$138.00.
The December Uranium Futures closed at $43.00. The current bearmarket low is $42.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.
The spot price of uranium quadrupled from 2004 to 2007. When it hit$138/lb, uranium became a certified bubble, which has now burst. Forinvestors, this is the best possible news, of course. Nuclear power isthe ultimate alternative fuel, as the French will tell you. You get allthe power, 84% cheaper than coal, with none of the politics of roguenations and none of the greenhouse emissions.
A friend of mine in the mining business told me (probably old news)that Denison Mines had closed a couple of its uranium mines due tocurrent market conditions relative to uranium. To my way of thinkingthis is a sure sign we're probably at or near the low for uranium.
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ECONOMIC NEWS:
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday itwas premature to pronounce the end of the financial crisis, saying thatrecent positive developments are underpinned by massive support fromthe public sector. "I understand that the mood in the financial systemis one of relief," Trichet said in a speech at the Frankfurt EuropeanBanking Congress. "But as of today, it is too early to declare thecrisis over." At the same time, however, Trichet said that theunprecedented liquidity it's provided to banks -- the total amount ofoutstanding ECB refinancing is around 60% bigger than it was before thefinancial market turmoil -- won't continue. "We will make sure that theextraordinary liquidity measures taken are phased out in a timely andgradual fashion and that the liquidity provided is absorbed in order tocounter effectively any threat to price stability over the medium tolonger term," he said.
China signaled Friday it may initiate a cautious monetary-policytightening in the new year, starting with a ratcheting up of the ratioof funds that banks must set aside as reserves. Wu Xiaoling -- a formervice governor of China's central bank and now a Chinese legislator --said hikes in the reserve ratio may begin next year. However, Wu addedthat the moves won't amount to a big change in the central bank'saccommodative policy stance, the report said. Instead, she indicatedthe goal was to return to a moderate policy, but not a wholesaletightening, as policy makers were wary of the rapid rise in assetprices but viewed little danger of broader inflation for the shortterm.
Separately, People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said Fridayat a press conference in Beijing that the nation was making progress instimulating domestic demand. Zhou was cited in reports as saying thecentral bank was closely monitoring conditions in the housing market,where demand is robust. He also said China has adopted a passive stanceon the value of the U.S. dollar and that shifts in the greenbackagainst other international currencies had a minimal affect on thenation's economy.
CORPORATE NEWS:
Dell's quarterly adjusted earnings and sales coming lower than WallStreet's projections. Dell said adjusted earnings for the third quartercame in at 23 cents a share. Analysts had expected earnings of 28 centsa share. Revenue during the period fell $12.9 billion, below theforecast for $13.2 billion. Net earnings dropped 54% to $337 million,or 17 cents a share. DELL fell 9.96%.
Tax-preparation software maker Intuit's fiscal second-quarterearnings outlook came in lower than had been anticipated. Intuitexpects adjusted earnings of 29 cents to 32 cents a share, below theconsensus estimate of 37 cents a share. It also forecast revenue of$800 million to $835 million. Analysts are looking for $833 million insales. Intuit's fiscal first-quarter results beat Wall Street'soutlook. Excluding special items, the company said it lost 10 cents ashare on revenue of $493 million. Wall Street expected a loss of 16cents a share on revenue of $488 million. INTU lost 2.02%.
Gap said its board authorized a new $500 million share repurchaseprogram, effective immediately. For the third quarter, profit rose 25%to $307 million, or 44 cents a share. Analysts had forecast 42 cents ashare. Sales rose 1% from the year-ago period to $3.59 billion.Same-store sales were flat during the quarter compared with a 12%decline in the year-ago period. Gap also said its operating margin wasthe highest in a decade, at 13.9%. GPS inched up 0.4%.
The J. M. Smucker Co. Friday its second-quarter earnings nearlytripled to $140 million, or $1.18 a share from $51.5 million, or 94cents a share in the year-ago period. The food company's adjusted netincome rose to $1.22 share from $1.01 a share. Sales rose 52% to $1.29billion due to the addition of Smucker's acquisition of Folger's. WallStreet analysts expected earnings of $1.04 a share and revenue of $1.25billion. Smucker raised its 2010 earnings forecast to $3.95 to $4.05 ashare, from its previous target of $3.65 to $3.80 a share. SJM gained5.4%.
D.R. Horton Inc., one of the nation's largest home builders, Fridaysaid its quarterly loss narrowed from the year-ago period, as chargescame in higher than some analysts had expected. The company reported afiscal fourth-quarter loss of $231.9 million, or 73 cents a share,compared with $799.9 million, or $2.53 a share, in the year-ago period.The Ft. Worth-Texas based home builder said the latest quarter'sresults included $192.6 million in pretax charges related to inventoryand land. Home-building revenue for the September quarter dropped to $1billion from $1.8 billion in the same quarter the previous year, D.R.Horton said. The consensus Wall Street revenue estimate was $1.1billion. DHI declined 15.4%.
Dr Pepper Snapple Group said Friday its board approved a quarterlydividend of 15 cents a share, the first from the company. The dividendwill be paid on Jan. 8 to shareholders of record on Dec. 21. The boardalso authorized the repurchase of up to $200 million of the company'scommon stock over the next three years. DPS rose 1.9%.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday downgraded its corporate familyrating on Sprint Nextel to Ba2 from Ba1, saying the wireless-servicesprovider's ability to stem the deterioration of its earnings is takinglonger than it had originally anticipated. The agency said thecompany's leverage, therefore, is likely to deteriorate beforestabilizing at much weaker levels than previously expected. The outlookfor Sprint Nextel's ratings is negative. Moody's said earnings pressureis likely to persist until the loss of post-paid subscribers decreasesmore significantly. "Complicating Sprint's challenges in stabilizingthe profitability of its post-paid operations is stubbornly high churnand an industry trend towards higher handset subsidies," said Moody'sanalyst Dennis Saputo in a prepared statement. S dropped 2.3%.
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The Annual Forecast Model (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted at thewebsite - so sign up today! Remember, there is no price too high forgood information! Don't make the mistake of not subscribing. Lastyear's AFM warned in January we were entering a multi-month bearmarket! Gold-bug? Check on the AFM for Gold!
https://www.vrtrader.com/subscribe/index.asp
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DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the fulllist only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VRList' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com. Canadian shares are listed atthe bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinumwhere you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch thepatterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on theplanet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they areproprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and areparticularly useful in defining lows or highs in stocks and stockindexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming offmarket extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRsin conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added aunique technical tool to your arsenal.
What is a Volume Reversal™? There are several proprietarysubtleties to the Volume Reversal ™ algorithm, but essentially aVolume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction dayaccompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day toRally day accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals ™coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance inhelping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in themarketplace. The Volume Reversals ™ presented here provide you witha unique research tool that may have trading (short-term) significance,but it also may have 'trend changing' (intermediate) significance aswell. The sector Volume Reversals ™ show where big money is possiblyaffecting an entire group of stocks. The stocks listed under the grouphave posted Volume Reversals ™ along with the group as a whole. Theindividual stocks listed have posted Volume Reversals ™ on their ownand are valid p lays as well.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please go ourCurrent Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or, ifyou would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please clickhere. Please note that not all symbols may be currently available:
http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_platinum/GetVRChart.asp
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Volume Reversals ™ - 11/20/09
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POSITIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
IBG.UN IBI INCOME FUND UNITS
RIM RESEARCH IN MOTION LI
S.UN SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL
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U.S. STOCKS
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Major Dive
BA Boeing Co
LMT Lockheed Martin Corp
RTN Raytheon Co
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
TDG TransDigm Group Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
DORM Dorman Products Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Recreational Vehicles
MPX Marine Products Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BCH Banco De Chile
BANKING Money Center Banks
MTU Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
SBSI Southside Bancshares Inc
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
CHFC Chemical Financial Corp
FMER Firstmerit Corp
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
BMTC Bryn Mawr Bank Corp
CCBP Comm Bancorp Inc
FNLC First Natl Lincoln Corp
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
CACB Cascade Bancorp
CPF Central Pacific Finl Corp
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
COBZ Cobiz Ixstorm.com Inc New
PRSP Prosperity Bancshares
BANKING Savings & Loans
FCLF First Clover Leaf Financial Co
FFFD North Central Bancshares
CHEMICALS Synthetics
SHI Shanghai Petrochemical
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
PANL Universal Display Corp
SIGM Sigma Designs Inc
SSYS Stratasys Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Data Storage Devices
HILL Dot Hill Systems Corp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Diversified Computer Systems
NZ Netezza Corporation
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
NOVL Novell Inc
TIGR TigerLogic Corporation
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
GRVY Gravity Co
LFT Longtop Financial Technologies
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Multimedia & Graphics Software
SKIL Skillsoft Plc Adr
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
INFY Infosys Technologies Ads
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
RWC RELM Wireless Corporation
CONSUMER DURABLES Photographic Equipment & Suppl
CAJ Canon Inc Adr
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
CYBI Cybex Internat
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
GEF Greif Brothers Corp A
TFCO Tufco Technologies Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Paper & Paper Products
TIN Temple Inland Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Clothing
WRC Warnaco Group Inc (the)
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
BOOT Lacrosse Footwear Inc
GIII G-Iii Apparel Group Inc
WEYS Weyco Group Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
CDZI Cadiz Inc
ECHO Electronic Clearing House
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
ABT Abbott Laboratories
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
LLY Eli Lilly & Company
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
DUSA Dusa Pharmaceuticals Inc
FRX Forest Laboratories Inc
ISPH Inspire Pharmaceuticals
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
CHRT Chartered Semiconductor
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
INTT Intest Corp
MOSY Monolithic Sys
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
NOA NACG Holdings Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
HES Hess Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
AMPH American Physicns Svc Gp
CNS Cohen & Steers Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
AKP Alliance Ca Muni Incm Fd Inc
ASP Amer Strion Stocks Inc
BGT Blackrock Global Fltg Inc
BSP American Strat Inc Pt 2
CIK Credit Suisse Asset Mgmt
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
BDD PowerShares DB Base Metals Dou
BEP S&P 500 Covered Call Fund Inc
CIF Colonial Inter High I F
DEF Claymore Sabrient Defender ETF
DGL PowerShares DB Gold Fund
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
CKXE CKX Inc
HGT Hugoton Royalty Trust
III Information Services Group Inc
RAME Ram Energy Resources Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Brewers
BUD Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
HANS Hansen Natural Corp
KO Coca-Cola Co
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
BF.A Brown-forman Corp Cl A
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
HRL Hormel Foods Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
AIPC American Italian Pasta Co
FLO Flowers Foods Inc
HAIN Hain Celestial Group Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
NHC National Healthcare Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
MAKO MAKO Surgical Corp.
MDT Medtronic Inc
RMTI Rockwell Medical Techs
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
BDX Becton Dickinson & Co
COV Covidien Ltd
CPTS Conceptus Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Practitioners
GTIV Gentiva Health Svcs
LCAV Lca-vision New
HEALTH SERVICES Specialized Health Services
ASGR America Service Group
FMS Fresenius Med Care Ag
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
LEDR Market Keader Inc
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
LIOX Lionbridge Technologies
SONE S1 Corporation
LEISURE General Entertainment
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises
LEISURE Resorts & Casinos
MPEL Melco PBL Entertainment Ltd
LEISURE Restaurants
MCD Mcdonalds Corp
RUBO Rubio's Restaurants Inc
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
ROLL RBC Bearings Inc
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
HIHO Highway Holdings Limited
LDSH Ladish Co Inc
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
MKTAY Makita Corp Spons Adr
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Cement
RMX Ready Mix Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
GFF Griffon Corp
MEDIA Broadcasting - Radio
CCU Clear Channel Comm Inc
CMLS Cumulus Media Inc
METALS & MINING Gold
XRA Exeter Resource Corporation
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
HW Headwaters Inc
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
ARLP Alliance Rsrce Partners
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
GNA Gerdau Ameristeel
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
FCEB Forest City Enterprises Inc Cl
GOOD Gladstone Commercial Corp
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
FPO First Potomac Realty Trust
LXP Lexington Corporate Prop
RWT Redwood Trust Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
BRT Brt Realty Trust Sbi
RETAIL Department Stores
DDS Dillard's Inc
JCP J.C. Penney Company Inc
SKS Saks Holdings Inc
RETAIL Discount
DG Dollar General Corp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
ZUMZ Zumiez Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Music & Video Stores
TWMC Trans World Entertain Cp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
HIBB Hibbett Sporting Goods
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
BBND Bigband Networks Inc
SATS Echostar Corporation Common St
VSAT Viasat Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
WPCS WPCS International Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Foreign
KTC Kt Corporation
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
UPS United Parcel Service B
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
DAL Delta Air Lines Inc
TRANSPORTATION Railroads
NSC Norfolk Southern Corp
PWX Providence & Worcestr Rr
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
LUV Southwest Airlines Co
TRANSPORTATION Trucking
HTLD Heartland Express Inc
MRTN Marten Transport Ltd
YRCW YRC Worldwide Inc
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
EXC Exelon Corporation
PCG Pg&E Corp Holdings Co
UTL Unitil Corp
UTILITIES Foreign Utilities
CWCO Consolidtd Water Co Inc
UTILITIES Water Utilities
ARTNA Artesian Resources Corp Cl A
WHOLESALE Computers Wholesale
SCSC Scansource Inc
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
AGYS Agilsys Inc
RELL Richardson Electrns Ltd
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NEGATIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
CWW.UN CLAYMORE S&P GLOBAL WATER
PZG.UN PARAMOUNT GOLD & SILVER
SJR.B SHAW COMMUNICATIONS I CL B
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U.S. STOCKS
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AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
SPAR Spartan Motors Inc
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BAP Credicorp Ltd
BANKING Money Center Banks
AGB Principal Protected Notes Link
PNC Pnc Financial Svcs Grp
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
ANCX Access National Corp
MNRK Monarch Bank
NOVB North Valley Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
BTFG Banctrust Financial Group Inc
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
EFSC Enterprise Financial Services
LBCP Liberty Bancorp Inc
QCRH Qcr Hldgs Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
CBNK Chicopee Bancorp Inc
RVSB Riverview Bancorp Inc
WES Westcorp Inc Ca
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
BRC Brady Corporation Cl A
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
TACT Transact Technologies
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
SCMR Sycamore Networks Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Security & Protection Services
DMC Document Security Systems
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
ASGN On Assignment Inc
DRUGS Biotechnology
EXAS Exact Sciences
NLTX Nile Therapeutics Inc
DRUGS Diagnostic Substances
ORXE Ore Pharmaceuticals Inc Common
DRUGS Drug Delivery
ELN Elan Corp Plc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
MEAD Meade Instruments Corp
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
ISRL Isramco Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
HLND Hiland Partners Lp
QBC Cubic Energy Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
EXLP Exterran Partners Lp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
BPL Buckeye Partners (L.P.)
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
DK Delek US Holdings Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
DMM Major Metro Hosuing Down ETF
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
BFZ Blackrock Ca Municipal Inc Tr
BMT Blackrock Ins Mun Tm Tr
BPS Blackrock Pa Strtgc Tr
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
BOM PowerShares DB Base Metals Dou
DGZ DB Gold Short ETN
DHG Dws Derman Val Inc Fd Inc
EWV Proshares Ultra Short Japan
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
FXY Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese
JYF WT Dreyfus Japanese Yen fund
PYN Pimco Ny Muni Inc Fd Iii
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
PRS Primus Guaranty
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
CSR Credit Suisse Group
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
ROX Castle Brands Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Dairy Products
SYUT Synutra International
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
TSN Tyson Foods Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
SNAK Poore Brothers Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
IHI iShares Med Devices
SPAN Span-Amer Medical Systs
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
BCR C.R. Bard Inc
DXR Daxor Corp
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
HCCI Heritage-Crystal Clean` Inc
MEDIA Broadcasting - Radio
CJR Corus Entertainment Cl B
MEDIA Broadcasting - TV
NTN Ntn Communications Inc
MEDIA Entertainment - Diversified
V Vivendi Universal
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
APO American Community Props
CTO Consolidated-Tomoka Land
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
PCC Pmc Commercial Trust
RETAIL Auto Parts Stores
TA Travelcenters of America LLC
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
SYMS Syms Corp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
SBH Sally Beauty Holdings Inc.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ATGN Altigen Communications
IKAN Ikanos Communications
---------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------
The annual 'Turkey Shoot' phenomenon now also comes into play, thoughit does have mixed results:
From the Stock Trader's Almanac:
"For 35 years the combination of the Wednesday before Thanksgivingand the Friday after had a great track record, except for twooccasions. Attributing this phenomenon to the warm "holiday spirit" wasa no-brainer. But publishing in the 1987 Almanac ws the "kiss ofdeath." Wednesday, Friday and Monday were all crushed, down 6.6% overthe three days in 1987. Since 1988, Wednesday-Friday lost 8 of 20 timeswith a total Dow point gain of 431.73 versus a Wednesday-Monday totalDow point gain of 205.97 with only six losses. THE BEST STRATEGYAPPEARS TO BE COMING INTO THE WEEK LONG AND EXITING INTO STRENGTHFRIDAY OR MONDAY."
Leibovit Files
Monday, November 23, 2009
"It's tough making predictions, especially about the future,"--Yogi Berra.
---------------------------------------------
UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
November 23 - 27, 2009:
---------------------------------------------
MONDAY, November 23, 2009:
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reports its fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings. HPis expected to report earnings of $1.13 a share, up from $1.03 a yearago, on revenue of $30.4 billion. Revenue is expected to be down 9.7%.The key is how HP, the top PC maker, describes its PC business. Itmarkets computers largely through retailers. So it has a big consumerfranchise. But it also has a big corporate business.
Also, Campbell Soup (CPB).
---------------------------------------------
TUESDAY, November 24, 2009:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Bookseller Barnes & Noble (BKS), whose Nook e-book is sold outuntil January, ketchup maker H.J. Heinz (HNZ) and clothier J. Crew(JCG).
---------------------------------------------
WEDNESDAY, November 25, 2009:
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Bookseller Borders (BGP), farm and construction equipment makerDeere (DE) and upscale retailer Tiffany (TIF).
---------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, November 26, 2009:
US Holiday: Thanksgiving
All Markets Closed
---------------------------------------------
FRIDAY, November 27, 2009:
NYSE Early Close - 1:00 ET
Bonds Early Close 2:00 ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
STOCKS - ACTION alert -
More of the same on Friday as stocks opened lower but closed off oftheir intra day lows. For the session the Dow was off 14.28 at10,318.16, the S&P 500 was off 3.52 at 1091.38, and the NasdaqComposite was off 10.78 to 2146.04. Volume dropped from Thursday andbreadth was negative.
In almost a carbon copy of Thursday, stocks opened lower on astronger dollar and weakness in Europe. Early losses were once againpared as sellers had no real interest in taking the market lower asevidenced by the drop in volume.
For the moment I will remain on my TIMER DIGEST 'Buy' signal, but asPlatinum subscribers know I will trade the downside via inverse ETFsfor all markets as necessary. It is beginning to look more and morelike the market will back off here into early December so stay tuned.
The U.S Dollar Index is rallying (again) and there is growingspeculation in the technical community that we're about to experience ahealthy rally. There are enough traders and hedge funds out there withenough cash that could make this a self-fulfilling prophecy. In otherwords, getting the momentum going to the point that key resistancelevels are penetrated would trigger short covering and new buying andaccomplish their goal. Yes, Virginia, the markets are manipulated!
Some Negative Volume Reversals ™ were posted last week and ifdon't quickly take out last week's highs, I have to give those signalsthe benefit of the doubt for the very short-term. Also, GovernmentSachs (GS) has put in an top following a Negative Volume Reversal ™- see chart below - which cannot be ignored.
http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_platinum/GetVRChart.asp
Though my overall thinking points to a higher market well into nextyear, as traders we have to be aware the market could quickly test ourthinking and turn south on us.
Base metals (DBB +0.93%) and health care (XLV +0.73%) led the way onFriday, while gold (GLD +0.57%) tacked on more gains.
Utilities (XLU +0.45%) and consumer staples (XLP +0.15%) alsooutperformed, giving Friday's trade a defensive slant.
The Nasdaq Composite is once again approaching its 50 day movingaverage while the Russell 2000 (small cap index) had its entire dailyrange below the 50 day moving average for the second straight day. TheS&P 400 (mid cap index) closed below its 50 day moving average forthe first time in two weeks.
The charts are looking bearish yet again. The S&P and NASDAQ hittheir fourth new highs in four months, but each time the technicalindicators hit lower highs. This is a very strong negative technicaldivergence. Meanwhile, the Transports have set up a triple top and theSmall Caps are trading below their 50 day moving averages. The onlyindex looking somewhat strong is the Dow Industrials, which hasbenefited more than the other indexes by the weak Dollar that helps thestock prices of exporters.
For the week, the Dow was up 0.46%, the S&P 500 was off 0.19%,the Nasdaq Composite was off 1.01%, the Russell 2000 was off 0.27%, andthe S&P 400 (mid cap index) was off 1.54%.
The Dow has run into stiff resistance in the 10,450 area which willrequire some real juice to get through. We could be on the verge of ahealthy and much needed correction here, but the bears must show moreresolve than they have the past couple of sessions.
As for the bulls, in order to break out and carry this marketsubstantially higher, they will need an influx of cash from thesidelines to take out overhead resistance. With the 'wait and see'attitude of traders regarding the economy over the last couple ofweeks, that could be a tall order
indeed.
--------------------------------------------
DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
A later day rally lifted the Transports, but they still closed withlosses in line with the broader market. The Dow Jones TransportationIndex declined 10.57 or 0.27% to 3945.52.
The IYT formed a Negative Volume Reversal ™ on Thursday and thecharts is showing a clear triple top.
---------------------------------------------
GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
Despite early session losses and the subsequent rally in the Dollar,Gold futures rose Friday for a sixth straight session to a new recordhigh, ending the week with their third weekly gain. Spot gold was up6.30 to 1150.90, not too far from the all-time high of 1153.90. Silverwas down 0.03 to 18.51, platinum was up 2 at 1445, and palladium wasdown 6 to 361.
The rally in Gold is well underway, but we've made significantupside progress in a very short period of time. On September 29, SpotGold was trading at 984.10 and this past Wednesday's high was 1153.95 -over 17% gain in less than two months! Gold needs to quickly take out1153.95 or we can begin to again build a case for another correction(back to 1070?). In truth, I feel we should instead experience anupward acceleration in price, but I don't want to get greedy. Indeed, Ihad been forecasting a rally to 1120-1130 after we bottomed out at 1025on October 28. If we break through 1153.95, my next upside objectivewould be 1175-1185.
What about Silver? Well, it managed to breakout last week to 18.88,but watching Silver rally is aking to watching paint dry. I am bullish,but gains have been slow in coming.
Investors interest in gold is partly reflected in the continuedinflow seen in SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest gold exchange-traded fund.The ETF's holdings stood at 1,117.49 metric tons as of Thursday, thehighest level since July. Meanwhile, holdings in the iShares SilverTrust, the biggest silver ETF, rose to a new record high above 9,000metric tons.
Copper futures settled up 0.0270 at 3.1080.
The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only anadditional $50 per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 permonth. Email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com to sign up today!
---------------------------------------------
BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries hovered near the unchanged level all day Friday, astraders wait for the results of this week's auctions. The long bondfuture gained 2/32 to 120 28/32.
Traders are preparing for next week's $118 billion in Treasuryauctions, despite the holiday shortened week. The Treasury Departmentsays it will sell $44 billion in 2-year notes on Monday, matching therecord amount of the securities sold last month. That sale will befollowed by $42 billion in 5-year notes on Tuesday and $32 billion in7-year notes the day after that -- all crammed in before theThanksgiving holiday. The latter two sales set new records for the mostever sold and are $1 billion more than October's sales.
Two-year note yields fell to their lowest levels this year onconcerns that the U.S. economy won't rebound from the recession asquickly or strongly as markets had accounted for. Two year notes aregenerally considered the best barometer for economic prospects andfuture interest rates.
Treasuries are beginning to slip here a bit, as markets areanticipating either a rise in interest rates or a rally in the USDollar Index.
---------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil fell 0.74 to 76.72 on the stronger Dollar and economic concerns.
Gasoline futures rose 0.0111 to 1.9806 after Valero Energy Corp.said the largest U.S. refiner is shutting down its refinery in DelawareCity, Del.
Natural gas finished the day up 0.082 at 4.424.
---------------------------------------------
US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The US Dollar Index tacked on further gains as a safe haven playFriday after recent economic data suggests the economy may not berecovering as quickly as many had hoped and expected. The US DollarIndex is up 0.363 to 75.656. As mentioned above, we may be setting thestage for another rally try here. Positive Volume Reversals ™ areevident in the long ETFs for the U.S. Dollar both in the US and Canada,so someone is nibbling. Should it come, a rally would be quite sharp,but I don't think it change the major trend which is lower. A rally inthe Dollar will like be coincident with a lower stock market and alower bond market. Gold is another question altogether. Recent historysays Gold should decline, but I'm not so sure about that as the inverserelationship between these two markets as of late as been eroding.
---------------------------------------------
URANIUM - ACTION alert
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
November 16, 2009 Posting
Spot: $44.00 DOWN 1.50. Bull market high in the cash market was$138.00.
The December Uranium Futures closed at $43.00. The current bearmarket low is $42.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.
The spot price of uranium quadrupled from 2004 to 2007. When it hit$138/lb, uranium became a certified bubble, which has now burst. Forinvestors, this is the best possible news, of course. Nuclear power isthe ultimate alternative fuel, as the French will tell you. You get allthe power, 84% cheaper than coal, with none of the politics of roguenations and none of the greenhouse emissions.
A friend of mine in the mining business told me (probably old news)that Denison Mines had closed a couple of its uranium mines due tocurrent market conditions relative to uranium. To my way of thinkingthis is a sure sign we're probably at or near the low for uranium.
---------------------------------------------
ECONOMIC NEWS:
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday itwas premature to pronounce the end of the financial crisis, saying thatrecent positive developments are underpinned by massive support fromthe public sector. "I understand that the mood in the financial systemis one of relief," Trichet said in a speech at the Frankfurt EuropeanBanking Congress. "But as of today, it is too early to declare thecrisis over." At the same time, however, Trichet said that theunprecedented liquidity it's provided to banks -- the total amount ofoutstanding ECB refinancing is around 60% bigger than it was before thefinancial market turmoil -- won't continue. "We will make sure that theextraordinary liquidity measures taken are phased out in a timely andgradual fashion and that the liquidity provided is absorbed in order tocounter effectively any threat to price stability over the medium tolonger term," he said.
China signaled Friday it may initiate a cautious monetary-policytightening in the new year, starting with a ratcheting up of the ratioof funds that banks must set aside as reserves. Wu Xiaoling -- a formervice governor of China's central bank and now a Chinese legislator --said hikes in the reserve ratio may begin next year. However, Wu addedthat the moves won't amount to a big change in the central bank'saccommodative policy stance, the report said. Instead, she indicatedthe goal was to return to a moderate policy, but not a wholesaletightening, as policy makers were wary of the rapid rise in assetprices but viewed little danger of broader inflation for the shortterm.
Separately, People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said Fridayat a press conference in Beijing that the nation was making progress instimulating domestic demand. Zhou was cited in reports as saying thecentral bank was closely monitoring conditions in the housing market,where demand is robust. He also said China has adopted a passive stanceon the value of the U.S. dollar and that shifts in the greenbackagainst other international currencies had a minimal affect on thenation's economy.
CORPORATE NEWS:
Dell's quarterly adjusted earnings and sales coming lower than WallStreet's projections. Dell said adjusted earnings for the third quartercame in at 23 cents a share. Analysts had expected earnings of 28 centsa share. Revenue during the period fell $12.9 billion, below theforecast for $13.2 billion. Net earnings dropped 54% to $337 million,or 17 cents a share. DELL fell 9.96%.
Tax-preparation software maker Intuit's fiscal second-quarterearnings outlook came in lower than had been anticipated. Intuitexpects adjusted earnings of 29 cents to 32 cents a share, below theconsensus estimate of 37 cents a share. It also forecast revenue of$800 million to $835 million. Analysts are looking for $833 million insales. Intuit's fiscal first-quarter results beat Wall Street'soutlook. Excluding special items, the company said it lost 10 cents ashare on revenue of $493 million. Wall Street expected a loss of 16cents a share on revenue of $488 million. INTU lost 2.02%.
Gap said its board authorized a new $500 million share repurchaseprogram, effective immediately. For the third quarter, profit rose 25%to $307 million, or 44 cents a share. Analysts had forecast 42 cents ashare. Sales rose 1% from the year-ago period to $3.59 billion.Same-store sales were flat during the quarter compared with a 12%decline in the year-ago period. Gap also said its operating margin wasthe highest in a decade, at 13.9%. GPS inched up 0.4%.
The J. M. Smucker Co. Friday its second-quarter earnings nearlytripled to $140 million, or $1.18 a share from $51.5 million, or 94cents a share in the year-ago period. The food company's adjusted netincome rose to $1.22 share from $1.01 a share. Sales rose 52% to $1.29billion due to the addition of Smucker's acquisition of Folger's. WallStreet analysts expected earnings of $1.04 a share and revenue of $1.25billion. Smucker raised its 2010 earnings forecast to $3.95 to $4.05 ashare, from its previous target of $3.65 to $3.80 a share. SJM gained5.4%.
D.R. Horton Inc., one of the nation's largest home builders, Fridaysaid its quarterly loss narrowed from the year-ago period, as chargescame in higher than some analysts had expected. The company reported afiscal fourth-quarter loss of $231.9 million, or 73 cents a share,compared with $799.9 million, or $2.53 a share, in the year-ago period.The Ft. Worth-Texas based home builder said the latest quarter'sresults included $192.6 million in pretax charges related to inventoryand land. Home-building revenue for the September quarter dropped to $1billion from $1.8 billion in the same quarter the previous year, D.R.Horton said. The consensus Wall Street revenue estimate was $1.1billion. DHI declined 15.4%.
Dr Pepper Snapple Group said Friday its board approved a quarterlydividend of 15 cents a share, the first from the company. The dividendwill be paid on Jan. 8 to shareholders of record on Dec. 21. The boardalso authorized the repurchase of up to $200 million of the company'scommon stock over the next three years. DPS rose 1.9%.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday downgraded its corporate familyrating on Sprint Nextel to Ba2 from Ba1, saying the wireless-servicesprovider's ability to stem the deterioration of its earnings is takinglonger than it had originally anticipated. The agency said thecompany's leverage, therefore, is likely to deteriorate beforestabilizing at much weaker levels than previously expected. The outlookfor Sprint Nextel's ratings is negative. Moody's said earnings pressureis likely to persist until the loss of post-paid subscribers decreasesmore significantly. "Complicating Sprint's challenges in stabilizingthe profitability of its post-paid operations is stubbornly high churnand an industry trend towards higher handset subsidies," said Moody'sanalyst Dennis Saputo in a prepared statement. S dropped 2.3%.
---------------------------------------------
The Annual Forecast Model (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted at thewebsite - so sign up today! Remember, there is no price too high forgood information! Don't make the mistake of not subscribing. Lastyear's AFM warned in January we were entering a multi-month bearmarket! Gold-bug? Check on the AFM for Gold!
https://www.vrtrader.com/subscribe/index.asp
---------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------
DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the fulllist only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VRList' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com. Canadian shares are listed atthe bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinumwhere you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch thepatterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on theplanet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they areproprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and areparticularly useful in defining lows or highs in stocks and stockindexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming offmarket extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRsin conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added aunique technical tool to your arsenal.
What is a Volume Reversal™? There are several proprietarysubtleties to the Volume Reversal ™ algorithm, but essentially aVolume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction dayaccompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day toRally day accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals ™coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance inhelping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in themarketplace. The Volume Reversals ™ presented here provide you witha unique research tool that may have trading (short-term) significance,but it also may have 'trend changing' (intermediate) significance aswell. The sector Volume Reversals ™ show where big money is possiblyaffecting an entire group of stocks. The stocks listed under the grouphave posted Volume Reversals ™ along with the group as a whole. Theindividual stocks listed have posted Volume Reversals ™ on their ownand are valid p lays as well.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please go ourCurrent Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or, ifyou would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please clickhere. Please note that not all symbols may be currently available:
http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_platinum/GetVRChart.asp
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Volume Reversals ™ - 11/20/09
---------------------------------------------
POSITIVE VRs
---------------------------------------------
XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
IBG.UN IBI INCOME FUND UNITS
RIM RESEARCH IN MOTION LI
S.UN SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL
---------------------------------------------
U.S. STOCKS
---------------------------------------------
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Major Dive
BA Boeing Co
LMT Lockheed Martin Corp
RTN Raytheon Co
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
TDG TransDigm Group Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
DORM Dorman Products Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Recreational Vehicles
MPX Marine Products Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BCH Banco De Chile
BANKING Money Center Banks
MTU Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
SBSI Southside Bancshares Inc
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
CHFC Chemical Financial Corp
FMER Firstmerit Corp
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
BMTC Bryn Mawr Bank Corp
CCBP Comm Bancorp Inc
FNLC First Natl Lincoln Corp
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
CACB Cascade Bancorp
CPF Central Pacific Finl Corp
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
COBZ Cobiz Ixstorm.com Inc New
PRSP Prosperity Bancshares
BANKING Savings & Loans
FCLF First Clover Leaf Financial Co
FFFD North Central Bancshares
CHEMICALS Synthetics
SHI Shanghai Petrochemical
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
PANL Universal Display Corp
SIGM Sigma Designs Inc
SSYS Stratasys Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Data Storage Devices
HILL Dot Hill Systems Corp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Diversified Computer Systems
NZ Netezza Corporation
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
NOVL Novell Inc
TIGR TigerLogic Corporation
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
GRVY Gravity Co
LFT Longtop Financial Technologies
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Multimedia & Graphics Software
SKIL Skillsoft Plc Adr
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
INFY Infosys Technologies Ads
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
RWC RELM Wireless Corporation
CONSUMER DURABLES Photographic Equipment & Suppl
CAJ Canon Inc Adr
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
CYBI Cybex Internat
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
GEF Greif Brothers Corp A
TFCO Tufco Technologies Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Paper & Paper Products
TIN Temple Inland Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Clothing
WRC Warnaco Group Inc (the)
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
BOOT Lacrosse Footwear Inc
GIII G-Iii Apparel Group Inc
WEYS Weyco Group Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
CDZI Cadiz Inc
ECHO Electronic Clearing House
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
ABT Abbott Laboratories
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
LLY Eli Lilly & Company
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
DUSA Dusa Pharmaceuticals Inc
FRX Forest Laboratories Inc
ISPH Inspire Pharmaceuticals
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
CHRT Chartered Semiconductor
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
INTT Intest Corp
MOSY Monolithic Sys
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
NOA NACG Holdings Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
HES Hess Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
AMPH American Physicns Svc Gp
CNS Cohen & Steers Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
AKP Alliance Ca Muni Incm Fd Inc
ASP Amer Strion Stocks Inc
BGT Blackrock Global Fltg Inc
BSP American Strat Inc Pt 2
CIK Credit Suisse Asset Mgmt
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
BDD PowerShares DB Base Metals Dou
BEP S&P 500 Covered Call Fund Inc
CIF Colonial Inter High I F
DEF Claymore Sabrient Defender ETF
DGL PowerShares DB Gold Fund
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
CKXE CKX Inc
HGT Hugoton Royalty Trust
III Information Services Group Inc
RAME Ram Energy Resources Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Brewers
BUD Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
HANS Hansen Natural Corp
KO Coca-Cola Co
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
BF.A Brown-forman Corp Cl A
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
HRL Hormel Foods Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
AIPC American Italian Pasta Co
FLO Flowers Foods Inc
HAIN Hain Celestial Group Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
NHC National Healthcare Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
MAKO MAKO Surgical Corp.
MDT Medtronic Inc
RMTI Rockwell Medical Techs
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
BDX Becton Dickinson & Co
COV Covidien Ltd
CPTS Conceptus Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Practitioners
GTIV Gentiva Health Svcs
LCAV Lca-vision New
HEALTH SERVICES Specialized Health Services
ASGR America Service Group
FMS Fresenius Med Care Ag
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
LEDR Market Keader Inc
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
LIOX Lionbridge Technologies
SONE S1 Corporation
LEISURE General Entertainment
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises
LEISURE Resorts & Casinos
MPEL Melco PBL Entertainment Ltd
LEISURE Restaurants
MCD Mcdonalds Corp
RUBO Rubio's Restaurants Inc
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
ROLL RBC Bearings Inc
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
HIHO Highway Holdings Limited
LDSH Ladish Co Inc
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
MKTAY Makita Corp Spons Adr
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Cement
RMX Ready Mix Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
GFF Griffon Corp
MEDIA Broadcasting - Radio
CCU Clear Channel Comm Inc
CMLS Cumulus Media Inc
METALS & MINING Gold
XRA Exeter Resource Corporation
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
HW Headwaters Inc
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
ARLP Alliance Rsrce Partners
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
GNA Gerdau Ameristeel
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
FCEB Forest City Enterprises Inc Cl
GOOD Gladstone Commercial Corp
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
FPO First Potomac Realty Trust
LXP Lexington Corporate Prop
RWT Redwood Trust Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
BRT Brt Realty Trust Sbi
RETAIL Department Stores
DDS Dillard's Inc
JCP J.C. Penney Company Inc
SKS Saks Holdings Inc
RETAIL Discount
DG Dollar General Corp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
ZUMZ Zumiez Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Music & Video Stores
TWMC Trans World Entertain Cp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
HIBB Hibbett Sporting Goods
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
BBND Bigband Networks Inc
SATS Echostar Corporation Common St
VSAT Viasat Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
WPCS WPCS International Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Foreign
KTC Kt Corporation
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
UPS United Parcel Service B
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
DAL Delta Air Lines Inc
TRANSPORTATION Railroads
NSC Norfolk Southern Corp
PWX Providence & Worcestr Rr
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
LUV Southwest Airlines Co
TRANSPORTATION Trucking
HTLD Heartland Express Inc
MRTN Marten Transport Ltd
YRCW YRC Worldwide Inc
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
EXC Exelon Corporation
PCG Pg&E Corp Holdings Co
UTL Unitil Corp
UTILITIES Foreign Utilities
CWCO Consolidtd Water Co Inc
UTILITIES Water Utilities
ARTNA Artesian Resources Corp Cl A
WHOLESALE Computers Wholesale
SCSC Scansource Inc
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
AGYS Agilsys Inc
RELL Richardson Electrns Ltd
---------------------------------------------
NEGATIVE VRs
---------------------------------------------
XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
CWW.UN CLAYMORE S&P GLOBAL WATER
PZG.UN PARAMOUNT GOLD & SILVER
SJR.B SHAW COMMUNICATIONS I CL B
---------------------------------------------
U.S. STOCKS
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AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
SPAR Spartan Motors Inc
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BAP Credicorp Ltd
BANKING Money Center Banks
AGB Principal Protected Notes Link
PNC Pnc Financial Svcs Grp
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
ANCX Access National Corp
MNRK Monarch Bank
NOVB North Valley Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
BTFG Banctrust Financial Group Inc
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
EFSC Enterprise Financial Services
LBCP Liberty Bancorp Inc
QCRH Qcr Hldgs Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
CBNK Chicopee Bancorp Inc
RVSB Riverview Bancorp Inc
WES Westcorp Inc Ca
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
BRC Brady Corporation Cl A
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
TACT Transact Technologies
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
SCMR Sycamore Networks Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Security & Protection Services
DMC Document Security Systems
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
ASGN On Assignment Inc
DRUGS Biotechnology
EXAS Exact Sciences
NLTX Nile Therapeutics Inc
DRUGS Diagnostic Substances
ORXE Ore Pharmaceuticals Inc Common
DRUGS Drug Delivery
ELN Elan Corp Plc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
MEAD Meade Instruments Corp
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
ISRL Isramco Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
HLND Hiland Partners Lp
QBC Cubic Energy Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
EXLP Exterran Partners Lp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
BPL Buckeye Partners (L.P.)
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
DK Delek US Holdings Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
DMM Major Metro Hosuing Down ETF
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
BFZ Blackrock Ca Municipal Inc Tr
BMT Blackrock Ins Mun Tm Tr
BPS Blackrock Pa Strtgc Tr
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
BOM PowerShares DB Base Metals Dou
DGZ DB Gold Short ETN
DHG Dws Derman Val Inc Fd Inc
EWV Proshares Ultra Short Japan
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
FXY Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese
JYF WT Dreyfus Japanese Yen fund
PYN Pimco Ny Muni Inc Fd Iii
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
PRS Primus Guaranty
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
CSR Credit Suisse Group
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
ROX Castle Brands Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Dairy Products
SYUT Synutra International
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
TSN Tyson Foods Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
SNAK Poore Brothers Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
IHI iShares Med Devices
SPAN Span-Amer Medical Systs
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
BCR C.R. Bard Inc
DXR Daxor Corp
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
HCCI Heritage-Crystal Clean` Inc
MEDIA Broadcasting - Radio
CJR Corus Entertainment Cl B
MEDIA Broadcasting - TV
NTN Ntn Communications Inc
MEDIA Entertainment - Diversified
V Vivendi Universal
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
APO American Community Props
CTO Consolidated-Tomoka Land
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
PCC Pmc Commercial Trust
RETAIL Auto Parts Stores
TA Travelcenters of America LLC
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
SYMS Syms Corp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
SBH Sally Beauty Holdings Inc.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ATGN Altigen Communications
IKAN Ikanos Communications
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The annual 'Turkey Shoot' phenomenon now also comes into play, thoughit does have mixed results:
From the Stock Trader's Almanac:
"For 35 years the combination of the Wednesday before Thanksgivingand the Friday after had a great track record, except for twooccasions. Attributing this phenomenon to the warm "holiday spirit" wasa no-brainer. But publishing in the 1987 Almanac ws the "kiss ofdeath." Wednesday, Friday and Monday were all crushed, down 6.6% overthe three days in 1987. Since 1988, Wednesday-Friday lost 8 of 20 timeswith a total Dow point gain of 431.73 versus a Wednesday-Monday totalDow point gain of 205.97 with only six losses. THE BEST STRATEGYAPPEARS TO BE COMING INTO THE WEEK LONG AND EXITING INTO STRENGTHFRIDAY OR MONDAY."
Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service. We would liketo hear from each and everyone of our subscribers. Our email is mark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education ofstock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. Theinformation provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buyor sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to beconsidered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource toaid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading instocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors andstaff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities presented. Allinvestors should consult a qualified professional before trading in anysecurity. The information provided has been obtained from sourcesdeemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.VRTrader.com staff makes every effort to provide timely information toits subscribers but cannot guarantee s pecific delivery times due tofactors beyond our control.
