11 replies to this topic

[The_Gold_Miner]

Does the USD breakout? Still a good spot to add some gold shares with a stop just above the USD channel. See this article for details: Gold Money Report

The MRI is also giving the green light:

[hiker]

Gold Miner, I just listened to Ike's interview of Sherman McClellan, who says he is bearish on gold based on the topping of the 8-year gold cycle in January, 2004. He next expects a two-wave down move/consolidation period followed by a gold top again in 2012 on the completion of the next 8-year gold cycle. Any thoughts about this view?

[hiker]

will add that he says the consolidation period ahead of us for gold is expected to last about 5 years.

[The_Gold_Miner]

One fault I find with just about all posters including myself is that we are not very clear on the time frames we are discussing. Yes I know that we all mention VST, ST, IT and LT time frames but I also know that these are vague in themselves. The article you mention reminds me of Prechter who takes a VERY long term look at the market. I like to follow this kind of commentary and give it the weight it deserves. My trading is short term so I only give this kind of commentary a very small percentage of consideration before making a trade decision.

I guess my question for you is how do you intend to use this information for your current trades? Myself, I'll keep on truckin the same as always and maybe this article wll help me save a few pennies over a number of trades in the future.

The revamp of my web site is nearing completion, stop by and check it out.
My Webpage

[hiker]

point taken, GM. Appreciate your reply. thanks for the heads up about the revamp of your web site.

[TechSkeptic]

I consider myself more of an IT to LT trader in gold (i.e. I hold most of my positions weeks to months, sometimes more than a year). So I've been kind of nervous about that 8-year cycle thing. But I'm more interested in the fundamentals of supply and demand, as well as U.S. dollar action. In the short-term, right now, it seems to be all about the dollar, so if the dollar cannot break away to the upside from its 200 DMA, and especially if it starts heading down again, I'll be pretty comfortable holding gold shares for awhile.

[skott]

GoldMiner, I like the changes to vestoranalytics.com. You have a very good record. I'll be watching for your long signal. You called this last downmove pretty well even though you didn't get an entry(at least you weren't long). Looks like one more trip down and then a rally. After that, I think we are going to go much lower but that is looking too far ahead. I think you are the one that mentioned wavespeak.com. they really nailed the downwave. thanks for tipping me off to them. Scott

[The_Gold_Miner]

Thanks Skott, I've been real happy with all of my web site sponsors. I think your analysis sounds good, maybe we get a long signal in the next week or two. I really enjoy Ryan's commentary at wavespeak.com, and is analysis is pretty darn good. I look at the elliott wave counts the same way I look at any other indicator. I think you need a combination to help avoid the wrong calls one can throw out from time to time. See you there...

[TomD]

I am not an ewa guru by any stretch...but just wondering...right now you have golds in a 4C wave.....it seems to me that recent price action could also be charting a series of 1-2 subwaves?.... ...just making conversation....I do not know enough about ewa to make it objective....I just look to see how easy or hard it is to get a count that fits my current position...(which right now is cash)

[The_Gold_Miner]

Same here TomD, I follow Ryan's counts as my understanding of the wave is only skin deep. I have been following him long enough to know that he does a good job at it but I always back up his analysis with standard TA to verify his calls.