(Weekend ingerletter.com excerpt; with technical analysis via videos only.)
Gene Inger's Daily Briefing . . . for Monday June 28, 2010:
Good weekend!
Disruptions in credit markets . . . are more notable than having ‘FINREG’ simply as an accomplished reality. Never has so much financial sector ‘spin’ meant so little with at least respect to having much to do with American growth recovery in the near-term for sure. We are less interested in who (politicians or otherwise) can claim ‘victory’ as we’re more interested in improving prospects for the U.S. beyond clarifying just for at times it seems, the sake of clarifying. Many measures in the Bill do enhance some of the accounting, limitations, and transparency aspects; but that doesn’t mean ‘growth’.
Au contraire; some aspects of the Bill may have unintended consequences impeding the credit markets and suppressing growth and recovery going forward. The markets on Friday concurred, as there was more shuffling near a Quarter’s end that anything having to do with the Bill (or even trepidations ahead of G20, which may not go well).
(The reason for this is compelling pressures for Europe and the UK to embrace fiscal constraint, while the US should but won’t embrace the same approach. However here in the U.S., compelling unbridled further stimulus spending politically is anathema.)
So there was not much ‘teeth’ in the Bill; costs will be astronomical; and new layers of bureaucracy are established as well just to administer proprietary trading and (more).
True lies?
This week’s FOMC statement was a sobering announcement that things are slowing; if you thought about the actual words. Growth is no longer ‘strengthening’ but simply ‘proceeding’. Financial conditions are now ‘less supportive’ due to Europe’s debt and other ‘crisis’. These tweaks in the FOMC statement should get more attention. As the Fed tends to be more optimistic, and has now become more skeptical and worrisome in tone; that’s a warning that while the term ‘double dip’ may be semi-relevant; no one is anticipating a blow-out rate of growth, for which stock price projections (reserved).
Most of those believe that if the Fed can just overcome the ‘hawks’ on the Board, and thus go on to compel an authorized dangerous rise in the Fed’s balance sheet toward the 5 trillion dollar level; what hasn’t worked in the past will somehow work. Unlikely it is (portions redacted); as it would be a failing ‘kick the can down the road’ approach.
So I think the Statement understates the level of angst in Washington; irrespective of this ludicrous attempt to compel fiscally responsible nations to abandon not only their desire, but their political commitment, to protect the financial solvency of their nations for their own people. However, our President left for Toronto convinced he can grasp defeat for much of the world from the jaws of stability, if not victory. There aren’t great answers here; but there is the knowledge that the Fed needs inflation (they don’t and won’t get it soon; with Deflation slightly prevailing as we’ve said for two years or more as you know) to repay our debt with depreciated Greenbacks. Germany fears it and it is not being evil as George Soros contends; it’s being responsible to its own citizens. If history is any guide, Germany dare not expose themselves to the risk other leaders seem all too willing to encumber their citizens with. Not only housing has been shall I say ‘propped up’ by subsidies; but the way it was done prolonged the agony just as I said would (unfortunately) be the case 3-4 years ago. And now the U.S. economy’s in danger of stalling anew (if it hasn’t already). We warned long ago about 2nd half 2010.
The chemistry of this (not just the debt) remains toxic. The proximity to breakdown of the technical ‘support’ levels (for members only). End-of-Quarter activity has so little meaning whether it’s firm or ‘window undressing’. The officials are fighting (reserved).
We predicted months ago that the party would be over for fiscal support to work. (The chart referenced) was shown to reflect the slowing and absence of velocity of money; so nothing should be a surprise. Going into Deflation you get slowing of velocity, and the standard Fed ‘panic’ is to crank-up printing presses into what I called ‘turbo’ boost a few weeks back before the projected May decline. (Consequences are reserved.)
Bottom line: stimulus has been pushed as far as it can credibly go; regardless of the memories of comparisons with the 1930’s. That’s why we argued both ‘misdirection’ of funds, and the incorrect interpretation of Keynes in a ‘debtor’ not creditor society. I think everyone must now grasp the significance of the point; perhaps even the Fed.
Daily action . . . sums up the pre-G20 gathering as ‘no easy answer’ because of how they abused the opportunity to behave differently over the last few years (both of the Administrations). Growth can be anywhere from lethargic to negative as we move to the 3rd and 4th Quarters, this year. And there has been some line-blurring by the Fed, as their bond purchasing intrudes on Treasury responsibilities; but that’s less a key. I am not saying the market must collapse like (reserved characterization of the future).
We forecast this week virtually flawlessly (starting with a sale on the Monday gap-up on China’s statement); maintain the video-outlined posture. A continued contraction in the near-collapse of (noted per warning preceding our May decline call in April) again essentially says it all. If the Fed doesn’t understand what the importance of the ‘broad’ money supply is, then we all have more problems ahead. It is a form of real quicksand, and as that can absorb much slowly, debt servicing becomes onerous.
A summary of the key points of the week just past, then two weekend videos follow:
Stability and prosperity . . . are of course desirable, but fleeting almost globally now one should keep in mind. When I opined three years ago (please realize that was for the most part to garner necessary attention to my expectation of a ‘global debacle’ in the months ‘before’ the market commenced collapsing as visible to average investors or the public at large) that prosperity would allude us until the 2020-2030 bullish time; or thereabouts. Not the preparation for new prosperity, but the arrival of solid growth.
I was not suggesting market lows would be that distant, as members of course know. What I was implying was a plunge followed by a retest perhaps, and years of difficult efforts to restore America’s economic might, beyond the temporary expedients of the ‘reflation’, which I rightly thought could not be effectively regenerated again as they’d done in 2002-’03 (we were bullish then for the ensuing 4 solid years until early 2007 ‘alerts’). The importance of this is that although we expected a rebound in 2009 (that lasted longer than initially speculated, but because of a ‘handled’ professional aspect that isn’t sour grapes but simply what happened), we emphasized this year that what would occur in the economy’s 2nd half would be considerably softer than consensus. I note this again because too many analysts are expressing ‘surprise’ as deterioration; a curiosity given that the housing contraction, lagging jobs and tight credit were really evident throughout the recent months, with most events occurring as we’d projected.
Those events include the 2-month early projection of ‘crash’ risk in May, followed by a rebound (not the ‘flash crash’ which we rightly viewed as a preview of what was on-tap next after a rebound), and then the rally into Expiration, following by a thrust up in response to China’s ‘float’ statement (which may reflect a liquidity issue there by the way, which nobody is talking much about), and then working lower (with allowance of course for mild Quarter’s end swings; prior to what video speculated about for July).
That’s why in this trading week I not only heavily shorted the Monday gap-up thrust, but believed the overall day as an ‘outside-down’ session (higher high, lower low, and lower close) for technical purposes was as close as you get to a ‘key reversal’ (and we said do). Also it was coming off near perfect intermediate (redacted) structure that enhanced my view of the March-April distribution as a ‘dome’ preceding downside in size. The continuation of our forecast has been for perhaps an early-mid July (more).
That’s already the case with what’s now happened (more). Then there’s a risk of the market folding like a house of cards, and for a reason nobody really likes to address either: the (sorry; but this analysis is for ingerletter.com members only in fairness).
Normally we don’t like to get too negative in June, but realized we had to be flexible in this year (beyond the expected rebound and Expiration rally) due to deterioration in many backdrop issues; not least of which involve a lack of global financial ‘balance’.
Whether it’s Germany (noted that weeks before the media cites Soros moaning about the disparity among the Euro nations); China (noted); or widening European spreads (another unreported phenomenon after ECB intervention did comparatively little good incidentally); or the specter that many countries are pulling-in their horns which tends to be the ‘everyman for himself’ stance we thought was coming by reading the G20 summary statement a few weeks ago (the ensuing Summit is this weekend). Oh and by the way there was the 2nd straight Hungarian bond auction failure just today too.
If we get a Hungarian solvency issue (not laughable and not irrelevant), most will of course try to minimize the significance; but so many countries in Europe are seriously close to similar situations, whether masked better or not. The EU rescue facility really is inadequate and there has not been the extent of social reform needed anywhere at this point. Many will say that spending has to continue; but alas, the funds aren’t right there to be committed; and in a deflationary environment which makes servicing debt onerous, there is not simple choice between more stimulus or budgetary discipline of the highest order.
For sure ‘severe austerity’ takes a long time to emerge from; but at the same time this is what we warned would be likely by the way they focused money here in the U.S. (in the late Bush and early Obama Administrations) and that’s how it got the state to its present situation of mediocre alternatives. On top of it all, enemies of the West are trying to take advantage of the situation; and thankfully some clearer heads (so far anyway) have deterred some of the potential insanity which could lead to wider open or regional wars (to wit: pressure on Turkey’s leadership prevailed and even the whackos in Syria backtracked on some things their terrorist allies wanted). I of course recognize the similarities to the pre-World War II period; but so do others. If anything, this recollection of history (about which average Americans aren’t often too keen) may keep the world from repeating some of the most egregious errors again.
The ‘quantitative easing’ efforts merely forestalled matters; but in stark reality solved little. Toxic debt has hardly been unwound, and earnings are grossly overestimated, based upon a recovery that generally still is pending realistic revision. This is bearish.
(Large segments reserved in fairness to our members; please join us if you’d like.) Everyone is trying to ‘lower the bar’ on expectations without ruffling feathers; whether it comes to earnings; to the Fed’s observations; or to concerns about Euro disruption. Any of these (or other) factors can appear seemingly suddenly to derail stifling efforts that analysts or the Fed are engaged in to soften the perception of what is the reality.
Housing as suspected was essentially the ‘worst ever’ (as we’re not surprised having forewarned that there was no way a housing low was a done deal). Most all emerging data suggests companies are taking down forward guidance (retail included) and that means (as we have argued) that the so-called earnings multiples are not ‘cheap’ as a lot of bulls argue, but rather that consumer spending remains generally constricted, in a way that reinforces the idea the multiples are considerably higher than represented.
Growth collapse?
The Fed did not open their ‘tool box’ for creative moves (at least not yet though over time they may) such as eliminating ‘interest on excess reserves’, so that too tends to constrain credit at a time many of the stimulus programs are coming to an end or just grinding down. This actually tightens financial conditions and slows growth materially. Whether called it a ‘double dip’ or not, it likely becomes essentially a growth collapse.
This restricts potential growth rates; and comes concurrent with higher Oil (demand if increasing overseas but not here is not bullish and actually increases stagflation odds a bit) as a declining Baltic Dry Index (as noted before), which argues actual slowing. Contractions in outright employment is likely and a further drag on growth perception psychology; which can contribute to fairly ominous rising ‘negative feedback loops’.
In essence, we got through Expiration; spiked last Monday and then immediately the market deteriorated as projected. I’m not a permabear (never have been); however, the signs simply point (noted). About 3 years ago when predicting this ‘epic debacle’ before the precise highs for the markets (internally they were topping earlier as we noted then but nobody agreed basically), I suggested that Government would move as they generally have; but that the course of action they would take (taxes, stimulus, make-work but not serious incentivizing) would actually prolong misery and extend the duration of recession. Sorry this was and remains a plodding ordeal and correct forecast, but that is so. All we can do is come as close to projecting it all, as we did.
One more thing (as Steve Jobs would say and in honor of the iPhone 4 premier; and again the software works great even on the 3 GS with a few disabled features).. there has been no effort to stymie High Frequency (computerized) Trading; so given what I began with tonight (the proximity of a breakdown); I would be alert for triggered event risk, starting right now. Those algorithms will start to make their own game if the lows of (this week) are penetrated, which again I believe (reserved) in short-order.
Finally, the Fox News story about ‘drug cartel’ agents INSIDE the State of Arizona in spying positions has a second source late on Tuesday; in that another news service is reporting that ‘cartel’ snipers are positioning themselves to take-out U.S. agents if they try to interfere with certain illegal activities of the drug cartel. This is not exactly an ‘act of war’ as it’s by the cartel not the Mexican Federalis (as far as we know shall we say); but it is something that requires a response both by Mexico’s officials and of our Federal Government. Irrespective of points of view about illegal aliens (they really aren’t illegal ‘immigrants’, as nobody gave them immigrant status unless they hold a ‘green card’ or ‘temporary worker visa’, in which case they are illegal immigrants only if they overstayed the terms of their legal entry). And shame on Washington for even attempting to call them immigrants in a ‘broader’ sense which marginalizes those who are in the U.S. either legally, or at least went to the trouble to get a work visa. Further in terms of enforcing Federal laws and protecting our borders, the State of Arizona is doing a better job than those in Washington, who, if they read the law, would realize it essentially is the enforcement of Federal law that Washington is being derelict on.
If one wonders if this has a market meaning; it sure does. (Detailed to members.)
Remember my comment about BP wanting to drill in 500 ft. not 5000 feet Gulf depth? Turns out that everyone (even the Pentagon and Secretary of Energy and the Pres. as well) signed-off on deep drilling. Their logic was self-sufficiency in-event war came with Iran and we needed nearly 8-10 months of oil without worry about any closure as might occur of the Straits of Hormuz. Perhaps the timing of the fast-paced drilling had an undisclosed urgency to it after all (we really don’t know that part). But we do know that Washington green-lighted the Macondo drilling operation from the start, and that began in Keathley Canyon Block 102 Southeast of Houston (the Tiber Prospect). The Government authorized drilling up to 35,000 feet total, and this well run awry may as it turns out have been intended to make us self-sufficient (the opposite of catastrophe and indeed the politics would have been inverted). Given that the discovery well was ‘even bigger’ than anticipated (world’s largest) one has to wonder whether the ‘relief’ wells are desperately intended not only to ‘relieve’ but to produce petroleum (we sure hope so), but also to fulfill the undisclosed National Security imperative we hear of. It is one thing to talk about the SPR (strategic reserve) but another to be self-sufficient.
Seriously; one of the issues here is that too many think retirement and pension risks are a European issue; and too many states that have enacted some reform (which is commendable as an effort, like Colorado) will not only face litigation from unions, but will find that imposing the limitations on future retirees is insufficient to cope with the challenge (in most cases what reforms have occurred do not apply to existing current beneficiaries, and that suggests again legislators do not grasp the extent of the risks).
And you can add to that the highest rate yet in foreclosures in Nevada (after you’ve heard so many say just the opposite); along with financial failure in higher-end areas, which is something I’ve been concerned about seeing (as previously mentioned the lower-end is pretty much saturated with failures, and now it moves up the scale just a bit). The 90-day delinquency rate on home loans of over a million it a high of 13.3 %, which is above the overall 8.6 % rate for the last reporting period. National average delinquencies are at record highs now; and that’s generally not being reported. This is fairly significant as most of the ‘stimulus’ assistance (further discussion provided).
The bottom line: things remain tenuous at best, and potentially fairly dire at worst; in a sense. That doesn’t mean the U.S. isn’t more resilient than some areas of course; but it does mean that it’s the height of arrogance to see ourselves insulated at all with this situation (few discuss U.S. investments intertwined with certain paper in the EU); much less to recognize that large multinationals remain overpriced given these risks.
With that said, just keep in mind there are a number of market-impacting or potential issues of the sort, that we have to keep an eye on; and that the odds of problems in the near future exceed those of resolutions and a peaceful world. Unfortunately that’s what makes for a hot summertime; but a volatile market in which I look forward to lots of great trades; not because we want to see these miserable issues, but because these tend to cause more than seasonal concerns with reflect to market prospects.
Debt impairment . . . is the concern; not earnings and recovery optimism as prevails, at least among the delusions of those who see a sustainable economic recovery with no contractions to test the mettle of the turnaround efforts domestically or worldwide.
Conclusion: stabilization efforts notwithstanding; overall recovery and deleveraging conditions will prevail (not may prevail) through this year, and probably into next year as well. Intervening market rallies do occur (some fairly wild), but of limited duration, at this point. If other developments unfold that could change prospects we’ll evaluate.
Bottom line: continuing characteristics; include (consolidated) the following bullet points:
· Perceptions of credit crisis as behind, and economic crises ahead discounted; still premature.
Further bullet points provided members; please visit ingerletter.com site for details.
MarketCast (intraday analysis & embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks forecast substantive failures by markets; particularly as 2010 evolves (whether just as a correction of a worse case remains to be assessed). Remember back in early 2007 we denied the 'liquidity' momentum as a canard; believing housing only the first asset bubble to deflate. We then outlined structured investment vehicle failures; banking issues, the confluence of asset deflations, and more; continuing with interruptions per projecting long ago: 'a perfect storm'. New sets of storm clouds quietly are gathered.
As the debt bubbles continue to deflate, alternating tradable moves continue from a trading perspective. Against that backdrop retaining a macro (adjusted) Sept. S&P 1600 +/- short irrespective of interim oscillations. Technical analysis via video follows.
Daily Briefing Technical-Corner MarketCast Videos
Bits & Bytes . . . provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers primary technology issues (needed for assessment of general factors in tech, or as compelling developments call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P, plus ideas ingerletter.com thinks might merit further reflection. (Individual stock comments generally are provided in video overviews only; occasionally I'll have some thoughts here; however increasingly most all analysis is via video, as it should be.)
Over 3 years ago I commenced projecting an 'accident waiting to happen'; affirmed historically after long-duration periods of free money (Gilded Age mentality). Now a market finished struggling with over-extended rebounds as our economy restructures.
Though enormous efforts have avoided systemic disaster on the banking front; there is no equivalent rescue of the overall economy besides perception; nor restoration of engines for sustainable growth. People are adjusting to lower expectations; which will never be a favored approach to American life. Actually we don’t see it as permanently alternating the future; but we still have major adjustments to work-through. That’s the reason I warned about chasing rallies; not to mention major ‘commercial’ adjustments as are ongoing. And as I’ve said; fairly visible new storm clouds were clustering.
Enjoy the weekend;
<h2 style="">Gene</h2>
Gene Inger,
Publisher
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