14 replies to this topic

[Ken]

Gold is going to get pounded down hard once the final peak is in which should be soon. Why? Investor optimism in gold is at an extreme and it's becoming a very, very crowded trade. Frank Barbera, writer of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter, had some of the most fascinating data regarding gold and mining shares recently. Technical readings are at massive extremes and are exclusively the domain of very major peaks. Now I'm not going to give away all of his data but I'll share one interesting fact. Frank Barbera's Medium Term Dollar Weighted Put to Call Premium Ratio for gold mining shares as of Monday, September 20th, and on a daily basis, was at its lowest value going all the way back to 1992. It closed at a value of .156 on Monday which indicates extreme optimism. This is the lowest reading (representing optimism) in the last 17 years! When you see the data over the last 17 years you can see the Call to Put Premium Ratio is practically off the charts.

[Ken]

By the way, the very last time the Medium Term Dollar Weighted Put to Call Premium Ratio hit a low was this year on June 28, 2010 with a ratio of .2367. The XAU fell substantially from that day. The ratio these days is even lower and is, in fact, at record lows!

Edited by Ken, 22 September 2010 - 09:59 AM.

[johngeorge]

Ken

There is a Bradley turn date on 9-30-2010 FWIW.

[goldswinger]

Gold is going to get pounded down hard once the final peak is in which should be soon. Why? Investor optimism in gold is at an extreme and it's becoming a very, very crowded trade.

Frank Barbera, writer of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter, had some of the most fascinating data regarding gold and mining shares recently. Technical readings are at massive extremes and are exclusively the domain of very major peaks. Now I'm not going to give away all of his data but I'll share one interesting fact.

Frank Barbera's Medium Term Dollar Weighted Put to Call Premium Ratio for gold mining shares as of Monday, September 20th, and on a daily basis, was at its lowest value going all the way back to 1992. It closed at a value of .156 on Monday which indicates extreme optimism. This is the lowest reading (representing optimism) in the last 17 years! When you see the data over the last 17 years you can see the Call to Put Premium Ratio is practically off the charts.

Yes it probably will, but after this breakout, 1400 is the minimum I now expect...... unless of course if it reverses hard from here,..... then no cigar....

GS.

[dougie]

curious minds want to know what frank was telling his subs in early August?

[Tor]

curious minds want to know what frank was telling his subs in early August?

Oh heavens does this guy ever give up!!!

[dharma]

i just want to point out as bulls progress parameters change. comparing to the bear market or early in this bull market will not get one a cigar.-profits. sure there is more interest in the pms. and that will be the theme going foward. its about maintaining your pp. and fiat will not do the trick dharma

[Tor]

i just want to point out as bulls progress parameters change. comparing to the bear market or early in this bull market will not get one a cigar.-profits.
sure there is more interest in the pms. and that will be the theme going foward. its about maintaining your pp. and fiat will not do the trick
dharma

Thats a good and fair point. Thanks Dharma, I always read your posts!

[dharma]

i just want to point out as bulls progress parameters change. comparing to the bear market or early in this bull market will not get one a cigar.-profits.
sure there is more interest in the pms. and that will be the theme going foward. its about maintaining your pp. and fiat will not do the trick
dharma

Thats a good and fair point. Thanks Dharma, I always read your posts!

likewise
dharma

[dougie]

hows that short away without risk call working out Tor old buddy ol pal?