www.toddmarketforecast.com
Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday March 2, 2011
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW + 9 on 800 net advances
NASDAQ COMP + 11 on 200 net advances
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
Editor’s Note. We e-mailed the March newsletter yesterday. Let us know if you did not receive it.
Crude oil was again unruly, moving higher by 2.7%. If I had known that was going to happen, I would probably not given a system 2 buy. I would have chickened out.
However, the stock market gave a pretty good account of itself. It was certainly retarded by the price of oil, but still managed a small rally. If crude behaves tomorrow, I think we have a good chance to close substantially higher.
Also helping was a good ADP employment report and a modestly upbeat Fed Beige Book.
The chart below is telling a reasonably bullish tale. Note that the S&P is still holding its previous low while the advance decline line is well above that level. Also, the A-D line almost made up its loss from late February while the S&P didn’t really come close (arrows). No guarantees of course, but we do think that this is a positive.
Amid the oil turmoil, the dollar has almost been forgotten. The greenback down still again. Gold and silver were higher. Copper and bonds lost ground. Crude oil surged.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders, we bought the E-mini S&P at 1303.00 and the SSO at 51.67. Sell at the close on Thursday.
System 7 traders are long the SPY from 131.83. Hold without a stop for now.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The ADP employment report showed an additional 217,000 jobs, more than last month’s 189,000. Crude oil inventories dropped 400,000 barrels. Last week they rose 800,000. On Thursday we get jobless claims and the ISM services number.
OTHER MARKETS
We’re on a buy for bonds as of February 11.
We’re moving to a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of today March 1.
We’re on a buy for gold as of February 3.
We’re on a buy for silver as of February 1. .
We’re on a buy for copper as of February 1.
We’re on a sell for crude oil as of January 6.
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.
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TODD MARKET FORECAST
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