Todd Market Forecast for Tuesday April 19, 2011
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW + 65 on 900 net advances
NASDAQ COMP + 9 on flat breadth
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
Editor’s note. Remember, we are making a presentation at the Dallas Traders Expo on Saturday June 18. Admission is free, but you have to register. Follow this link. http://www.moneyshow...mp;scode=022343
The stock market managed a decent gain. The reasons given were some better than expected earnings reports especially from Johnson & Johnson. In addition, strength in Europe came in the heels of better than expected PMI manufacturing reports from German, France and the eurozone.
Of course, we were impressed that the VIX percent change yesterday suggested a rally on Tuesday and probably on Wednesday.
However, we are a bit unhappy that the daily chart of most indices are in a pattern of declining tops and declining bottoms. We would feel much better if the peaks of April 15 (arrows) are broken to the upside for both the indices and advance decline line.
After the close, IBM and Intel had better than expected earnings. This should help the opening on Wednesday.
The dollar dropped and this probably helped gold, silver, copper and crude oil. Bonds were also higher.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there on Wednesday.
System 7 traders bought the SPY at 130.59. Sell at the close on Wednesday if the S&P 500 is in negative territory at 3:45 EST.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Housing starts totaled 549,000, more than the expected 525,000. On Wednesday we get existing home sales and crude oil inventories.
OTHER MARKETS
We’re on a buy for bonds as of April 15.
We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of March 17.
We’re on a buy for gold as of February 3.
We’re on a buy for silver as of February 1. .
We’re on a buy for copper as of March 23.
We’re on a sell for crude oil as of April 12.
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.
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Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.
Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. We were ranked ranked # 1 for the past ten years at the end of 2003, 2004 and 2005. At the end of 2006 we slipped to #3 and at the end of 2007, we were ranked # 5.
Our bond timing was ranked # 1 for 2007 and 2008. Gold timing was ranked #1 for 1997 and #2 for 2006.
For 2010, we were ranked the # 4 long term stock market timer.
TODD MARKET FORECAST
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